【英语财经】国际清算银行主张收紧货币政策 BIS argues for tighter monetary policy in spite of ‘uneasy calm’

Central banks must not let market volatility halt their plans to retreat from crisis-fighting monetary policies, the Bank for International Settlements has warned ahead of the expected first rate rise by the US Federal Reserve in nine years.

While the current “uneasy calm” in financial markets threatened to blow up into bouts of financial turmoil, with clear tensions between markets’ behaviour and underlying economic conditions, such a threat should not dissuade monetary policymakers from taking the first steps towards tighter monetary policy, the BIS argued in its latest quarterly review.

“At some point, [the tension] will have to be resolved,”

said Claudio Borio, head of the BIS’s monetary and economic department. “Markets

can remain calm for much longer than we think. Until they no longer can.”

The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s rate-setting

board, is set to vote on December 16. Recent strong jobs figures have raised

the likelihood of an increase to the federal funds rate. An earlier shift

towards the exit by the US

central bank sparked a “taper tantrum” in financial markets — a reference to

the Fed’s decision to announce that it was tapering, or slowing, the pace of

its asset purchases made under its quantitative easing package.

The Fed resisted raising rates this year in part because of

market turmoil over the summer. Going into this month’s meeting, conditions

have been milder — although the BIS noted this calm had been uneasy.

“Very much in evidence, once more, has been the perennial

contrast between the hectic rhythm of markets and the slow motion of the deeper

economic forces that really matter,” Mr Borio said.

The BIS has long believed that what it describes as

“unthinkably” low interest rates are fuelling instability in global financial

markets.

Rates across advanced economies remain at historic lows more

than seven years after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers

sparked a global financial crisis. The European Central Bank last week cut a key

interest rate to a fresh record low of minus 0.3 per cent.

美联储(Fed)预计将进行9年来首次加息前夕，国际清算银行(BIS)警告称，各国央行不能让市场波动阻止其退出应对危机的货币政策。

国际清算银行在其最近的季度回顾中表示，尽管当前金融市场“令人不安的平静”可能酿成金融动荡，市场行为和根本经济状况之间明显存在紧张，但是此类威胁不应该阻碍货币政策制定者迈出收紧货币政策的第一步。

“在某一时刻，（这种紧张）将不得不得到释放，”国际清算银行货币和经济部负责人克劳迪奥?博里奥(Claudio Borio)称，“市场保持平静的时间可能比我们认为的更长。直到它们无法再保持平静。”

美联储的利率制定委员会——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将于12月16日投票。近期强劲的就业数据增加了上调联邦基金利率的可能性。此前美联储转向退出量化宽松(QE)的姿态引发了金融市场的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)——指美联储决定宣布将逐渐缩减其在QE计划下购买资产的步伐。

美联储今年曾克制住没有加息，部分是由于今年夏天的市场动荡。在本月议息会议即将举行之际，市场状况更加温和——尽管国际清算银行指出这种平静令人不安。

“市场的忙乱节奏与真正重要的更深层次经济力量的缓慢动作之间的长期对比，再一次变得显而易见，”博里奥称。

国际清算银行一直相信，其所称的低得“难以置信的”利率正在加剧全球金融市场的不稳定。

在美国投行雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产引发全球金融危机超过7年之后，发达经济体整体的利率水平仍然处于历史低位。欧洲央行上周将关键利率下调至-0.3%的历史新低。

译者/马柯斯