【英语财经】能源市场的“中国阴影” China’s slowdown casts shadow over oil states

“You have made miracles happen,” China’s former energy tsar Zhou Yongkang told Chinese oil workers in 1999. They had just finished work on an oil pipeline in Sudan at a time when the idea of crude oil costing over $100 a barrel seemed unbelievable.

Viewed from the other side of the commodities boom, the miracle seems more like a mirage. Oil prices are back below $50 a barrel and global investment in resources is falling as expectations for Chinese growth cool. Mr Zhou, who rose to head China’s security services, is now in jail for corruption. Violence in Sudan has cut the flow of oil that his teams worked so hard to develop.

Still, Mr Zhou was right in many respects. He was one of the few to anticipate that China’s hunger for resources would require a global footprint. China is now the world’s largest crude importer and its investment decisions affect every continent.

China’s hunger for oil, steel and chemicals was just roaring to life at the beginning of this century.

Its buying spree extended not just to physical barrels but to oilfields and metals mines, as Chinese policymakers led by Mr Zhou sought energy security and a place to invest a growing pile of foreign exchange reserves. China’s willingness to pay above market rates helped inflate asset prices and led to rapid growth of investment and receipts in countries rich in oil and other commodities.

Now, a sea change in the Asian giant’s willingness to spend overseas is rippling out to the countries that benefited the most from the surge in Chinese demand and investment over the decade-long commodities boom.

From Angola to Australia, from Venezuela to Zambia, growth rates are slowing as a result of lower prices for resource exports and stalling foreign investment.

Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University, says: “We used to buy a lot, but now we have reduced purchases. Therefore it will influence the equation of demand and supply in a huge way.”

China’s official figures show GDP growth sliding to 6.9 per cent in the third quarter, the slowest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2009. This slower growth is prompting multinationals to scale back investments.

A year ago, Chinese state oil group Sinopec ordered a wide-ranging audit of its overseas assets to see which fields were still profitable after an expensive buying spree during the years when Mr Zhou was one of China’s most powerful men, sources told the FT. The audit showed Sinopec spent billions on under-producing fields in Angola.

Africa is taking an particular hit as the boom turns into bust. Governments that found common cause with China during the boom times are now seeing foreign direct investment plummet.

Angola, China’s second-largest crude supplier, has had to reduce its budget for the year by about $15bn. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is cutting back on infrastructure spending. Both countries are struggling with sharply weaker currencies. “They have really got the squeeze with lower revenues, not necessarily volumes, because of the price collapse,” says David Humphrey at Standard Bank.

Less revenue from oil and mining exports means African governments are also slowing the pace of tenders for new road and power projects. These were often funded by loans from Chinese banks and built by Chinese construction companies. But now, with lower prices on the horizon, African governments are reluctant to sign up to new commitments. “Everything is 10 times slower,” said one African sales manager for a multinational equipment maker.

Back at home, the oil companies who brought Chinese largesse to far-off continents are struggling themselves.

Cnooc has been the most aggressive of China’s three national oil champions in making plans to cut spending, but rivals Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corp are also easing back on foreign and domestic projects while being careful to maintain a public commitment to high-profile projects abroad.

“Those who invest in commodities are also producers, and the downward price hurts their finances,” says Prof Lin, of Xiamen university. “Short term, the pace of investment will slow, but the ongoing projects will continue.”

However, despite the doom and gloom, Chinese demand for oil remains high. Crude imports in the year to October rose by nearly 9 per cent.

Additional reporting by Owen Guo

“你们创造了人间奇迹，”中国前能源部门主管周永康在1999年这样告诉中国石油工人。他们刚刚完成苏丹一条输油管道的建设工作，当时油价超过每桶100美元的想法几乎不可思议。

从大宗商品繁荣出现之前的视点看，这场奇迹似乎更像是海市蜃楼。如今油价跌回每桶50美元以下，同时随着人们对中国经济增长的预期降温，全球资源投资不断下滑。曾升至中共中央政法委书记的周永康现在因腐败身陷囹圄。苏丹的暴力活动减少了石油产量，而周永康的团队曾努力开发这里的油田。

然而，周永康在很多方面是正确的。他是预见到中国对资源的旺盛需求将需要全球足迹的少数人之一。中国现在是全球最大原油进口国，其投资决定影响着全球各个大洲。

本世纪初，中国对石油、钢铁和化学品的需求初现生机。

中国的购买热潮不仅涵盖现货原油，还延伸至油田和金属矿，以周永康为首的中国政策制定者当时寻求能源安全，并希望为中国日益膨胀的外汇储备找到投资对象。中国愿意支付高于市场水平的价格，这帮助提高了资产价格，并导致投资以及石油和其他大宗商品出产国家的财政收入迅速增长。

如今，这个亚洲巨人的海外支出意愿发生了巨大变化，这影响到在10年大宗商品繁荣期间从中国需求和投资飙升中受益最大的国家。

从安哥拉到澳大利亚，从委内瑞拉到赞比亚，随着资源出口价格下跌和外国投资停滞，这些国家的增速纷纷放缓。

厦门大学中国能源政策研究院(China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy)院长林伯强表示：“我们过去购买量很大，但现在我们减少了购买量。因此，这将极大地影响供需平衡。”

中国官方数据显示，今年第三季度中国GDP增速下滑至6.9%，为自2009年第一季度以来最慢季度增速。增速放缓正导致跨国企业削减投资。

消息人士告诉英国《金融时报》，一年前，国有的中石化(Sinopec)曾下令对海外资产进行全面审计，考察在经过一场成本高昂的购买热潮（那几年周永康是中国最高权力机构成员之一）后，哪些油田仍有利可图。这项审计显示，中石化在安哥拉斥资数十亿美元买下了一些低产的油田。

随着繁荣变成低迷，非洲受到的打击尤为沉重。在繁荣期间与中国关系热络的非洲国家政府现在目睹本国的外国直接投资(FDI)大幅下滑。

中国第二大原油供应国安哥拉不得不将今年的预算减少150亿美元左右。非洲最大产油国尼日利亚正削减基础设施支出。两国都在努力应对本币大幅贬值。标准银行(Standard Bank)的戴维?汉弗莱(David Humphrey)表示：“由于油价暴跌，他们真的受到财政收入下滑的挤压，尽管石油出口量不一定减少。”

来自石油和矿产出口的财政收入下滑意味着，非洲国家政府也在放慢新的道路和电力项目的招标速度。这些项目往往由中资银行的贷款融资，并由中国的建设公司承建。但如今，由于未来价格可能下跌，非洲国家政府不愿签订新协议。一家跨国设备制造商的非洲销售经理表示：“所有事情的速度都变成了原来的十分之一。”

在国内，曾经将中国的慷慨带到远隔万里的其他大陆的中国石油企业自己正举步维艰。

在制定计划削减支出方面，中海油(CNOOC)一直是中国三大国有石油冠军企业中最果断的一家，但竞争对手中石化和中石油(CNPC)也在减少国内外项目，同时慎重保持对高调海外项目的公开承诺。

“那些投资于大宗商品的企业也是生产商，价格下跌正损害其财务状况，”厦门大学的林伯强表示，“短期来看，投资速度将放缓，但已经上马的项目将继续。”

不过，尽管悲观情绪盛行，中国的石油需求仍然高涨。在截至今年10月的一年，中国原油进口增长近9%。

郭晨(Owen Guo)补充报道

译者/梁艳裳