【英语财经】中国经济不能丢掉“旧引擎” China’s faltering consumer story

As the traditional drivers of China’s economy slow down, the hope had been that consumer spending and the services sector would pick up the slack.

But evidence is mounting that China’s consumer story is faltering along with the wider economy.

Consider the following:

1) Household income growth has fallen to its lowest level since FT Confidential Research, a Financial Times service, began surveying Chinese consumers in July 2011 (see first chart).

2) The People’s Bank of China’s depositor survey for the three months to September found that consumers were the most negative about their incomes since the second quarter of 2009.

3) Wage growth is at its weakest since records began in June 2012, according to FT Confidential Research’s monthly survey of recruitment managers.

4) The record share of GDP growth taken by the services sector in the first half of this year was due almost entirely to financial services. Excluding the financial sector, the tertiary sector accounted for a smaller share of GDP growth than it did in 2014 (see second chart).

5) Services sector activity in September fell to its weakest level in 14 months, according to the Caixin/Markit Services purchasing managers’ index.

All of this is worrying but should not come as a surprise. The idea that growth in the services sector could remain stable, let alone accelerate, in the face of a wider slowdown was never realistic.

It may be the case that more people are employed in the tertiary than the secondary sector, but the income earned in the latter is still one of the key drivers of activity in the former. As the old growth drivers slow, so too will the new ones of consumer spending and services (see the third chart).

For the services sector to be cushioned from a slowdown in the traditional industrial sector, new industries need to be developed to generate new sources of income. But encouraging investment in new industries as the economy slows has — unsurprisingly — proved to be difficult.

The issue facing Beijing is that the problems associated with China’s old economic model have come to a head before new growth drivers have been developed.

Those arguing that China’s policymakers should hold their nerve and allow traditional growth drivers to continue to weaken are therefore missing the point. Such a course of action may reduce the risks associated with China’s old growth model but, as has been demonstrated in recent quarters, this will hinder rather than hasten the development of new growth drivers.

To follow such a path risks a hard landing for China’s economy that will mark the failure rather than the beginning of the country’s rebalancing.

Beijing, therefore, faces the difficult task of, on the one hand, firing up the old engines of growth in order to stabilise the economy and encourage the development of new industries and, on the other, not exacerbating the underlying problems in the economy that stem from the old system.

China must first pull off this difficult balancing act before the rebalancing of its economy can begin in earnest.

随着中国经济增长的传统引擎转速放慢，希望一直寄托于消费者支出和服务业可以填补缺口。

但是，越来越多的证据表明，中国的消费引擎与整体经济一样运转不正常。

请考虑以下情况：

1. 家庭收入增长降至自2011年7月英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)开始调查中国消费者以来的最低水平。

2. 中国央行第三季度的城镇储户调查问卷报告发现，三季度是自2009年第二季度（不含）以来消费者对收入的感受和预期最消极的一个季度。

3. 据“投资参考”对招聘经理所做的月度调查显示，眼下是自2012年6月有记录以来工资增长最疲软的时候。

4. 今年上半年，服务业增长对国内生产总值(GDP)增长的贡献率创下历史记录，而这几乎完全归功于金融服务业。除去金融部门，第三产业增长对GDP增长的贡献率小于2014年（见第二张图表）。

5. 据财新/Markit服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)显示，9月服务业经营活动指数创下14个月来最低值。

这一切都令人担忧，但并不会令人惊讶。认为服务业可以在整体经济放缓的背景下保持稳定增长始终都不是个现实的想法，更不用提认为它可以加速增长了。

情况可能是，在第三产业就业的人数超过第二产业，但是从第二产业获得的收入仍然是第三产业活动的关键推动因素之一。随着旧的增长引擎转速放慢，消费者支出和服务业这两个新增长引擎也将失去动力（见第三张表格）。

要让服务业避免受到传统工业部门放缓的冲击，需要发展新产业、以产生新的收入来源。但是，意料之中的是，在经济放缓之际事实上很难鼓励人们向新产业投资。

如今北京方面面临的问题是，新的增长引擎还没有发展起来，然而与中国经济旧模式相关的问题已经到了必须解决的地步。

因此，那些认为中国政策制定者应该保持冷静并放任传统增长引擎继续失去动力的人没有抓住重点。此类行动方案或许会降低与中国增长旧模式相关的风险，但是，正如最近几个季度的情况所表明的那样，这也将阻碍、而非加快新增长引擎的发展。

选择这条路可能会造成中国经济硬着陆，这将标志着中国经济再平衡的失败、而不是开始。

因此，北京方面面临的艰巨任务是：一方面让旧的增长引擎恢复动力，以稳定经济并鼓励新产业发展；另一方面还要避免旧模式带来的经济潜在问题进一步恶化。

中国必须首先取得这种艰难的平衡，然后才能真正启动经济的再平衡。

译者/马柯斯