【英语财经】Lex专栏：中国经济转型并未偏离轨道 Lex: Chinese trade data: stick to the plan

Hannibal Smith, of the 1980s TV staple The A-Team, had a signature phrase: “I love it when a plan comes together.” Cue theme song (dun-da-dun-DAHH!).

China’s policymaking A-team is not ready to roll the credits. Despite an aggressive stimulus programme, September headline trade data were horrific. Exports in renminbi terms fell 4 per cent. Worse — for those who think the domestic economy is marching along even as outbound trade softens — imports fell a whopping 20 per cent year on year, after falling 14 per cent in August.

While volume data show that some of the drop is due to falling commodity prices, it is clear that China is still slowing. This should not be a surprise: as China shifts from heavy industry towards consumption , some deceleration is inevitable.

Other data suggest that the shift is on track. To start, commodity import volumes, as opposed to values, look stable. Oil is a good example. And consumer activity over China’s Golden Week holiday, when the People’s Republic celebrates its birthday, was strong. Between October 1 and 7, spending on retail and dining reached $170bn, up 11 per cent versus the prior year. According to Goldman Sachs, Golden Week revenues at online travel retailer Tuniu were treble those of last year. The most popular destinations were Japan, South Korea and

Thailand. Those staying at home sought out entertainment, too: sale of film tickets rose by three-fifths.

The Chinese Communist party’s Central Committee will meet at the end of this month to approve the economic blueprint for the next five years. Most likely, it will be more of the same: stimulating spending on consumer goods and services, cleaning up the environment and reforming state-owned industry.

This does not mean that the policy steps taken thus far have failed. In an economy as large and unbalanced as China’s, creating new support structures must take time. So far, the data all suggest that things are moving, if slowly, in the right direction. There is still time for the plan to come together. All we need is a theme song.

上世纪80年代风靡一时的美国电视连续剧《天龙特攻队》(The A-Team)中的主人公汉尼巴尔?史密斯(Hannibal Smith)有一句口头禅：“我就喜欢一份计划越来越成熟”。快点播放主题曲！

中国的政策制定团队尚未准备好迎接片尾曲。尽管实施了激进的刺激方案，但9月份的整体贸易数据仍相当可怕。以人民币计算，出口下降4%。更糟糕的是——对于那些认为即便对外贸易趋弱，但国内经济仍在强劲增长的人——继8月同比下滑14%之后，9月进口同比大跌20%。

尽管贸易量数据显示其中一些下降是大宗商品价格下跌所致，但中国经济显然仍在放缓。这不应该让人意外：随着中国从重工业向消费转型，一些减速是不可避免的。

其他数据似乎表明，中国经济转型正取得进展。首先，大宗商品进口量（而不是进口额）看上去是稳定的。石油是一个很好的例子。同时，中国国庆黄金周期间的消费活动十分强劲。10月1日至7日，零售和餐饮支出达到1700亿美元，同比增长11%。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)介绍，黄金周期间在线旅行社途牛的营收达到去年同期的三倍。最热门的旅游目的地是日本、韩国和泰国。没有出去旅游的人也在花钱找乐子：电影票房收入增长五分之三。

中共中央将在本月晚些时候开会，批准未来五年的经济发展规划。最有可能的是出台更多相同的政策：刺激消费品和服务的消费，净化环境，改革国有行业。

这并不意味着迄今采取的政策步骤失败了。在中国这样既大又不平衡的经济体，创建新的支持架构必然需要时间。到目前为止，数据似乎都表明事情正朝着正确的方向发展，即便速度较慢。计划仍有时间逐渐成熟。我们需要的只是一首主题曲。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析



译者/和风