【英语财经】市场降低美联储年内加息预期 Investors lurch backwards on US rate rise expectations

The US economy may be slowing, a top Federal Reserve policymaker conceded, as investors have ratcheted back bets on when the US central bank will finally begin to tighten monetary policy.

William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said he was still open to the possibility of an interest rate increase this year and stressed that the US economy was performing “pretty well”. But he highlighted weaker jobs and retail sales rises, and argued that growth was being held back by the dollar’s appreciation and swings in inventories.

Interest rate futures now indicate that most traders do not see any rate increases this year, and about half think the central bank may have to wait beyond March next year. Fed Funds futures signal that there is about a 10 per cent chance that policymakers will sit on their hands until 2017.

As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped back to the 2 per cent mark, confounding predictions of a gentle rise this year.

美联储(Fed)一名高层政策制定者承认，美国经济或许正在放缓。投资者也减少了对美联储最终将何时开始收紧货币政策的押注。

纽约联储(New York Fed)行长威廉?达德利(William Dudley)表示，他仍对年内加息的可能性持开放心态，并强调称，美国经济运行“相当良好”。但他强调了更疲弱的就业和零售增长，并辩称，经济增长受到了美元升值和库存波动的拖累。

当前利率期货行情表明，多数交易员认为年内不会有任何加息举动，大约半数交易员认为，美联储或许不得不等到明年3月之后才加息。联邦基金期货行情显示，政策制定者在2017年前按兵不动的几率大概为10%。

其结果是，10年期美国国债收益率跌回至2%的关口，与年内小幅加息的预测抵触。

译者/邢嵬