【英语财经】人民币接近获得储备货币地位 Renminbi edges closer to reserve status

The International Monetary Fund is creeping closer to including China’s renminbi in an elite basket of reserve currencies, with the US and other big shareholders likely to back the move unless IMF staff make a surprise recommendation against inclusion.

But remaining technical hurdles, concerns over Beijing’s heavy-handed intervention in markets and poor communication of reforms such as the changes to its foreign exchange regime that set off a bout of turmoil in global financial markets last month, are causing nervousness within the IMF.

The caution has prompted some IMF staff to raise the possibility that a vote by the fund’s board due to take place in November could be delayed into early next year to give China more time to deliver reforms and build credibility at a time when many outside observers have grown sceptical.

A move to include the renminbi in the basket used to value the IMF’s de facto currency, the Special Drawing Rights, would represent its biggest shake-up since the creation of the euro which, together with the dollar, yen and British pound, makes up the elite club. For that reason the IMF in August announced that it would delay the technical rollout of the new SDR basket until September 30 next year to give central banks around the world plenty of time to prepare for any change.

However, a move to delay the actual decision over whether to include the renminbi even for a few months beyond this year would raise questions about whether the IMF was according China special treatment. The SDR basket is subjected to a review every five years and IMF officials have repeatedly said they are committed to concluding the current iteration by the end of this year.

While the case for inclusion was in theory bolstered by the shift to give the market a greater say in the daily band in which the renminbi is permitted to trade, the reaction has caused delays in other reforms.

“The IMF and the Chinese government had anticipated that more of the [needed reform] boxes would have been ticked by this time,” says Eswar Prasad, a former head of the IMF’s China operations who teaches at Cornell University in the US. “But things have fallen a bit behind partly because of the Chinese government’s mismanagement of its liberalisation move?.?.?.?And that has come back to haunt them and the IMF.”

Chinese officials have been expressing confidence about their bid and since August have been trying to reassure other capitals that their commitment to reform is genuine.

In Washington last week Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, sought to assuage concerns among some in the US about the impact of a weaker renminbi and stronger dollar on American competitiveness, declaring that “there is no basis for the renminbi to have a devaluation in the long run”. He also thanked the US for its conditional support for Beijing’s bid to have the currency included in the SDR basket.

The IMF has two main criteria for measuring whether to include a currency in the SDR basket: the country’s role as a big trading economy and whether its currency is “freely usable”.

China, which is the world’s largest trading nation, long ago met the first test. But whether it meets the second test is still up in the air. The big question for the IMF is not China’s capital controls but whether, in practical terms, member countries in crisis would be able to use the renminbi if needed.

Beijing has helped its case by opening up part of its domestic bond market to other central banks in recent months and by liberalising the way interest rates on deposit products are set. But further reforms are still expected by the IMF.

The fund is also working with member central banks to test things such as whether there is sufficient liquidity in the renminbi in all global time zones to handle orders worth tens of millions of dollars to sell or buy the currency without shifting the markets significantly.

Even as that technical work happens, however, the political battle over the RMB’s inclusion appears to have been largely won.

“The Chinese have made up their mind to be part of this,” says Meg Lundsager, who until last year was the US representative on the IMF’s executive board. “At this point it just seems very hard to oppose.”

国际货币基金组织(IMF)正悄然接近把人民币纳入储备货币篮子，美国和其他大股东很可能支持此举——除非IMF工作人员令人意外地建议不纳入人民币。

但是，尚存的技术障碍、对北京方面重手干预市场的担忧以及在改革举措方面沟通不佳（如上月引发全球金融市场一轮动荡的汇率形成机制变动），正使IMF内部出现紧张情绪。

这种谨慎态度促使IMF的一些工作人员提出一个可能性：原定11月举行的IMF董事会投票不妨推迟至明年初进行，在许多外部观察人士产生怀疑的背景下，让中国有更多时间落实改革，构建可信度。

把人民币纳入用于为IMF事实上的货币——特别提款权(SDR)确定价值的货币篮子，将是这个篮子自欧元问世以来的最大调整；目前这个精英俱乐部的成员除了欧元以外，还有美元、日元和英镑。由于上述原因，IMF在8月宣布，将把新的SDR货币篮子的技术推出推迟至明年9月30日，以便让世界各地的央行有充分时间做好准备。

然而，在要不要纳入人民币的问题上推迟做出实际决定，哪怕只是推迟几个月到明年再做决定，也会令人质疑IMF是不是在给予中国特殊待遇。按照规则，SDR篮子每5年接受一次评估。IMF官员已一再表示，他们致力于在今年底完成此轮评估。

虽然让市场在决定人民币汇率每日交易区间方面发挥更大作用的举动在理论上有利于纳入人民币的主张，但此举引发的反应造成其它改革的延误。

“按照IMF和中国政府原来的预计，更多的（必要改革）到了现在应该已经到位，”IMF原中国部主任、如今在美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)执教的埃斯瓦?普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。“但事情有点滞后，部分原因是中国政府对开放举措的管理不佳……这一点现在反过来困扰着他们和IMF两方面。”

中国官员们迄今对自己的努力表示有信心，自8月份以来，他们一直在试图向其它国家的当局保证：中国对改革的承诺是真实的。

中国国家主席习近平上周在华盛顿试图平息美国一些人对于人民币弱势和美元强势影响美国竞争力的担忧，表示“人民币汇率不存在持续贬值的基础”。他还感谢美国有条件支持北京方面推动人民币纳入SDR货币篮子的努力。

IMF在衡量是否把一种货币纳入SDR篮子时有两个主要标准：该国作为一个大型贸易经济体的角色，以及其货币是否“可自由使用”。

身为世界最大贸易国的中国早已达到前一个标准。但对于它是否达到后一个标准尚无定论。对IMF来说，最大的问题并不在于中国的资本管制，而是在实际操作层面，成员国在危机期间能不能在需要时使用人民币。

北京方面在近几个月向其它国家的央行部分开放国内债券市场，并且放宽存款产品的利率设定方式，从而增强了人民币被纳入的理由。但IMF仍在期待中国出台进一步改革。

IMF还在与成员国的央行合作进行各种测试，比如人民币是否在全球所有时区都有足够的流动性，能够应付价值数千万美元的买入或卖出指令，而不致显著影响市场。

不过，尽管这些技术工作仍在进行，围绕纳入人民币的政治角力似乎已基本上取得胜利。

“中国已经打定主意要成为其中一部分，”担任IMF执行董事会美国代表直至去年卸任的梅格?隆德萨吉(Meg Lundsager)表示。“到了现在这个节骨眼似乎已很难反对。”

译者/和风