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2015-9-29 06:16
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China is unlikely to begin national carbon trading before the end of this decade.
The 2017 start date for a national emissions trading scheme, announced to great fanfare in Washington on Friday, referred only to a preliminary regulatory rollout, people with knowledge of China’s plans said yesterday. The date featured among measures jointly announced by the US and China during a visit by China president Xi Jinping to Washington and has been contrasted with the lack of national emissions trading in the US, where the notion is politically controversial. World Resources Institute, an environmental non-governmental organisation called the Chinese timetable “courageous”. China originally targeted a 2016 start for a national emissions trading scheme when it announced seven local pilots several years ago. However, that date has slipped by several years, amid difficulties integrating the various pilots and as regions fight to host the national exchange. Emissions trading systems, also known as cap-and-trade, allow companies that are polluting above their quota to buy credits from those that pollute less. This encourages companies to reduce their emissions in order to be able to sell their excess quotas, and in theory makes the task of reducing overall emissions more cost-efficient. “It’s just the beginning, the rollout,” said Yang Fuqiang, a Beijing-based senior adviser to the National Resources Defense Council, a US campaign group. He rattled off issues he believed could be addressed only after the administration of an emissions trading system was moved to a national co-ordinating bureaucracy in 2017: “What should our regulations be? How should each province collect data? Which bureaucracy should do that? Which third parties should inspect and how should they be certified? All these issues need to be addressed. Real trading wouldn’t start until 2019 or 2020, I believe.” Most importantly, the extent to which the system would function as a true market, as opposed to a top-down quota system, remains in doubt. The existing pilots lack transparency over the amount of quotas allocated, among other issues, making it hard to determine how the prices are derived. And China’s system still favours quotas assigned by administrative fiat rather than by supply and demand. A national system could help realise China’s complex plans for limiting emissions in prosperous eastern cities while encouraging coal-based industry in the poorer central and frontier regions. At the moment, quotas are distributed to local governments. “That’s still effective if you favour administrative ways, but if you want to build a carbon trade market, this will constrain cross-regional trade,” said Zou Ji, deputy director of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Co-operation. Other concerns include the fact China’s international emissions reductions pledges are based on emissions intensity rather than the absolute targets needed to assign tradable quotas. Additional reporting by Owen Guo 中国不太可能在本10年结束之前启动全国碳交易。
熟悉中国计划的人士昨日表示，上周五在华盛顿大张旗鼓宣布的全国排放交易机制在2017年的开始日期，只是指初步的监管启动。 中国国家主席习近平访问华盛顿期间，美国和中国联合宣布的措施中包含了这个启动日期，它还被人与美国尚未推出全国排放交易机制进行对比；排放交易的理念在美国仍是有政治争议的。环境非政府组织——世界资源研究所(World Resources Institute)形容中国的时间表是“有勇气的”。 几年前宣布7个地方试点项目时，中国曾计划在2016年启动全国碳排放交易机制。然而，那个日期已被延后数年，其背景是整合各个试点项目的困难，以及各地区竞相让全国交易所落户本地。 排放权交易制度，亦称“总量管制和交易”(cap-and-trade)，让那些污染超出额度的企业向那些污染较少的企业购买排放权额度。这将鼓励企业减少排放，以便能够出售其多余的额度，并且在理论上使得减少总排放量的任务更具成本效益。 “所谓启动仅仅是个开始，”美国国家资源保护委员会(National Resources Defense Council)常驻北京的高级顾问杨富强表示。 他列举了他认为只有在排放交易制度的行政管理在2017年移交一个全国统筹的官僚机构之后才能解决的问题：“法规应该怎么制定？各省应该如何收集数据？哪个官僚机构应该收集数据？哪些第三方应该负责检查？它们应该如何获得认证？所有这些问题都需要得到解决。我相信真正的交易在2019年或2020年之前不会启动。” 最重要的是，这套制度将在何种程度上作为一个真正的市场（而非自上而下的配额机制）发挥作用，仍令人怀疑。现有试点项目存在的一个问题是在分配的额度数量上缺乏透明度，令人难以确定价格是怎样得出的。同时中国的制度仍倾向通过行政命令（而不是供需）来分配额度。 全国性的交易制度可能有助于实现中国的复杂计划：在繁华的东部城市限制排放，同时鼓励在中部和边疆地区发展煤炭相关产业。 目前，排放额度被分配给地方政府。“如果你喜欢行政方式，那仍是有效的，但如果你想打造一个碳交易市场，这将制约跨区域交易，”国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心(National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Co-operation)副主任邹骥表示。 其他担忧包括这样一个事实，即中国在国际上作出的减排承诺是基于排放强度，而不是分配可交易额度所需的绝对值目标。 郭晨(Owen Guo)补充报道 译者/和风 |