【英语财经】新兴市场ETF遭遇抛售潮 Emerging market ETFs bleed $19bn so far this year

Fears about deteriorating economic conditions in China, Brazil and Russia have led to a massive retreat from emerging market exchange traded funds.

So far this year investors have pulled $19bn from emerging market ETFs but experts suggest these vehicles are vulnerable to much more selling pressure.

Geoff Dennis, head of emerging markets equity strategy at UBS, the bank, said: “It feels like no one wants to be in emerging markets at the moment.”

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey of fund managers in September, the number of investment managers that are “underweight” emerging markets is the largest since 2005.

The two largest products tracking these markets — BlackRock’s MSCI emerging markets ETF and Vanguard’s FTSE emerging markets ETF — have experienced divergent levels of outflows.

BlackRock’s fund suffered net withdrawals of $7.4bn, while Vanguard’s ETF, which comprises mostly retail investors who tend to be “stickier” than institutional investors, had outflows of $1.1bn.

Ursula Marchioni, chief strategist at iShares, BlackRock’s ETF arm, said: “It is too early to call a bottom in emerging markets, but valuations now appear attractive.”

Ritesh Samadhiya, an equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, said fund managers fear a possible recession in China and the threat of a broader debt crisis in emerging markets.

The US Federal Reserve cited concerns over China as a factor in its decision not to increase US interest rates on September 17.

BlackRock is hopeful this will improve the situation. “The Fed’s decision to hold rates could provide a boost to sentiment, but fundamentals in emerging market economies remain weak and we expect to see more volatility,” said Ms Marchioni.

Since the Federal Reserve’s announcement, $1bn flowed into BlackRock’s MSCI emerging markets ETF, although this is due to some investors closing short positions and ending bets on further price weakness.

Other casualties of the sell-off include BlackRock’s single-country ETFs that provide exposure to Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. Together they registered net outflows of almost $2.3bn this year.

China-focused ETFs have also been subject to extreme pressure, with the Shanghai stock index down 40 per cent since its peak in late June.

The iShares FTSE A50 China ETF, which is listed in Hong Kong, has seen outflows of $5.6bn this year. Mainland Chinese assets managers have also been hit by withdrawals. Harvest, China Asset Management, Huatai-Pinebridge, CSOP and E-Fund together experienced net outflows of $18bn this year.

ETFs tracking Chinese markets were dented after volatile conditions led to trading suspensions of more than half the companies on the country’s two main exchanges in July.

Managers insisted their Chinese ETFs traded without interruption despite the suspensions in many of the underlying stocks. This failed to convince the majority of investors to stick with their funds, and experts suggest they might not be persuaded to return.

对中国、巴西和俄罗斯经济状况恶化的担忧导致新兴市场交易所交易基金(ETF)遭遇大规模资金流出。

今年迄今，投资者已从新兴市场ETF撤出190亿美元，但专家们提出，这些投资工具很容易受到更多抛售压力。

瑞银(UBS)新兴市场股票策略主管杰夫?丹尼斯(Geoff Dennis)表示：“眼下的感觉像是没有人愿意投资新兴市场。”

根据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 9月进行的月度基金经理调查，新兴市场股票持有量偏低的投资经理数量是2005年以来最大的。

追踪新兴市场的两大产品——贝莱德(BlackRock)的MSCI新兴市场ETF(MSCI emerging markets ETF)和先锋(Vanguard)的富时新兴市场ETF(FTSE emerging markets ETF)——遭遇了不同水平的流出。

贝莱德的基金遭受了74亿美元的净流出，而以散户投资者（其“粘性”往往大于机构投资者）为主的先锋ETF，遭受了11亿美元的流出。

贝莱德ETF部门——安硕(iShares)的首席策略师厄休拉?马尔基奥尼(Ursula Marchioni)表示：“现在就断定新兴市场已经触底还为时过早，但目前的估值似乎颇具吸引力。”

美银美林股票策略师拉提什?萨马德亚(Ritesh Samadhiya)表示，基金经理担心中国可能陷入经济衰退，担心新兴市场爆发全面债务危机的威胁。

美联储(Federal Reserve)在9月17日决定不加息时，将有关中国的担忧列为一个因素。

贝莱德认为美联储的决定有望使局面改观。“美联储决定维持利率不变可能提振情绪，但新兴市场经济体的基本面仍然疲弱，我们预期会看到更多波动，”马尔基奥尼表示。

自美联储宣布其决定以来，贝莱德的MSCI新兴市场ETF获得10亿美元的流入，尽管这是由于部分投资者解除空头头寸，结束对价格进一步疲软的押注。

此轮抛售的其它对象包括贝莱德的单一国家ETF，此类基金提供巴西、墨西哥和韩国的敞口。今年以来它们总共遭受近23亿美元的净流出。

专注于中国的ETF也受到极大压力，原因是上海基准股指已从6月触及的高点下跌40%。

在香港上市的安硕富时A50中国指数ETF(iShares FTSE A50 China ETF)今年以来遭受56亿美元的净流出。中国内地的资产管理公司也受到资金流出的打击。嘉实(Harvest)、华夏基金(China Asset Management)、华泰柏瑞(Huatai-Pinebridge)，南方东英(CSOP)和易方达(E-Fund)今年总共遭受了180亿美元的净流出。

跟踪中国市场的ETF受到打击，也是因为7月份市场动荡导致中国两大股市超过一半的上市公司停牌。

各管理公司坚称，它们的中国ETF的交易没有中断，尽管组成ETF的许多股票停牌。但这未能说服多数投资者继续持有这些基金，专家们暗示，这些投资者可能不会回头。

译者/和风