【英语财经】对冲基金经理警告新兴市场危机在即 Alarm sounds on emerging markets and US slowdown despite Fed decision

The world economy is locked on a course towards an emerging markets crisis and a renewed slowdown in the US, despite the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to hold off on a rise in rates, according to one of 2015’s most successful hedge fund managers.

John Burbank, whose Passport Capital

has placed a number of lucrative bets against commodities and emerging markets this year, forecast that the Fed would be forced into a fourth round of quantitative easing to shore up the economy.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Burbank said years of QE had caused a misallocation of capital across the world, while the end of QE last year triggered a dollar rally with consequences that were only beginning to be realised.

“The wrong people got the capital — emerging markets countries and corporates and a lot of cyclical companies like mining and energy, particularly shale companies — and this is now a major problem for the credit markets,” he said.

Mr Burbank was speaking days after the Fed decided against raising US interest rates from near-zero levels, warning of “global economic and financial developments” and the damage these could do to US growth and inflation.

One of the most worrying for economists is the declining fortunes of emerging markets, which have deteriorated sharply this year following a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy, recessions in Russia and Brazil and widespread outflows of capital.

Developing world currencies have tumbled on average to their lowest levels since 2002.

Emerging market gross domestic product growth rates are set to fall to 3.6 per cent this year on average, their lowest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to estimates from Oxford Economics. Such signs of distress, coupled with a potential tightening in US monetary policy, have persuaded investors to flee developing world asset classes.

Mr Burbank said investors were not recognising the risks, and Passport was not pulling out of its bearish bets. “I think we are on the precipice of a liquidation in emerging markets, and this feels the way that the fourth quarter of 1997 felt.”

Additional reporting by Joe Leahy

in S?o Paulo

约翰?伯班克(John Burbank)表示，世界经济将不可避免地走向新兴市场危机以及美国经济再度放缓，虽然美联储(Fed)上周决定暂不加息。

约翰?伯班克是2015年最成功的对冲基金经理之一，今年他的护照资本(Passport Capital)做出大量看空大宗商品和新兴市场的押注，获益丰厚。伯班克预测美联储将被迫进入第四轮量化宽松以支撑经济。

伯班克在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，多年的量化宽松已在全球造成资本错配，去年量宽的结束引发了美元反弹，所产生的后果才刚刚开始被人们意识到。

伯班克说：“获得资本的都是些错误的对象：新兴市场国家及企业，以及许多周期性企业，比如采矿和能源，尤其是页岩企业。这是信贷市场现在的一大问题。”

在伯班克发表上述言论的几天以前，美联储决定将利率保持在接近零的水平，就“全球经济和金融发展”以及它们可能对美国经济增长和通货膨胀造成的伤害发出警告。

经济学家们最担心的事情之一是新兴市场形势。由于中国经济大幅放缓、俄罗斯和巴西陷入衰退以及普遍的资本外流，新兴市场形势今年以来急剧恶化。

平均而言，发展中国家货币已经贬值至2002年以来的最低水平。

根据经济预测机构Oxford Economics的估计，今年新兴市场国内生产总值(GDP)增长率平均将下降至3.6%，达到2008-09年金融危机以来的最低水平。此类危机迹象以及美国货币政策可能收紧已经让投资者开始逃离发展中国家的资产类别。

伯班克表示，投资者并未意识到这些风险，而护照资本没有撤回其空头押注。“我认为我们正处于新兴市场即将面临清算的险境，这让人有种回到1997年第四季度的感觉。”

李若瑟(Joe Leahy)圣保罗补充报道

译者/何黎