【英语财经】诺奖得主警告美国股市泡沫 Fears mount over US stocks bubble

A growing number of investors believe that US stocks are overvalued, creating the risk of a significant bear market, according to research by Yale University market scholar Robert Shiller.

The Nobel economics laureate told the Financial Times that his valuation confidence indices, based on investor surveys, show greater fear that the market is overvalued than at any time since the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000.

“It looks to me a bit like a bubble again with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and at the same time people losing confidence in the valuation of the market,” he said.

However, he made clear it remains impossible to time any fall in the market, and cast doubt on whether stocks would drop should the Federal Reserve raise rates later this week. “I’m not looking for any big effect,” he said. “It’s been talked about for so long, everyone knows that it’s coming. It’s just not much of a big deal.”

He added there was no historical evidence for a link between interest rates and share prices. “You would think that when interest rates are higher people would sell stocks, but the financial world just isn’t that simple.”

根据耶鲁大学市场研究学者罗伯特?席勒(Robert Shiller)的研究，越来越多投资者相信美国股市被高估了，这制造了股市出现大熊市的风险。

这位诺贝尔经济学奖得主告诉英国《金融时报》，他根据投资者调查编制的估值信心指数表明，目前投资者对于股市被高估的忧虑大于2000年互联网泡沫高峰后的任何时间。

“在我看来这有点像是又一个泡沫，基本上股价在2009年后仅6年的时间里上升了两倍，同时人们正在失去对股市估值的信心，”他说。

然而，他明确表示现在还不可能预测市场会在什么时候下跌，并且质疑了假如美联储(Fed)在本周晚些时候加息，股市会因此下跌的前景。“我不认为会产生任何重大影响，”他表示，“这件事已经被谈论了很长时间，每个人都知道它会到来。这实在称不上一件大事。”

他还补充道，没有历史根据表明利率和股价之间存在联系。“你可能会认为当利率更高的时候人们会卖出股票，但金融世界没那么简单。”

译者/许雯佳