【英语财经】投资者怀疑中国官方增长数字有水分 Investors lose faith in Beijing’s official growth figures

The view that China is growing far slower than official figures show is going mainstream, with global investors among those basing decisions on a rate of about 5 per cent.

According to government statistics, China’s economy grew at an annual pace of 7 per cent in the second quarter of

this year, in line with Beijing’s target for the year and the World Bank’s estimate of 7.1 per cent.

However, doubts have long lingered about the veracity of Chinese economic data, with many analysts believing

figures to be understated during times of rapid growth and overstated during the current slowdown. A strategist at one European asset manager described the official growth figure as “a very crude propaganda tool”.

The recent decision by the People’s Bank of China to devalue the renminbi, a move that rattled markets across the world, has been seen as evidence that China’s economy is in far worse health than official data indicate.

Some have turned to other estimates, such as the “Li Keqiang index” — a composite of indicators favoured by China’s prime minister, such as electricity production and railway freight volumes. Many of those gauges fell into outright contraction late last year.

Bob Browne, investment chief at Northern Trust, said the fund manager recently lowered its growth forecast for China for the next five years to “5 per cent and change”, which he said was a recognition that using official figures was “really no longer appropriate”.

“We just can’t reconcile it with the private sector surveys or more valid government bottom-up numbers,” he said.

The true nature and rate of Chinese growth is a vital ingredient for investors and economists as they seek to measure demand for global commodities and forecast growth rates for the countries that produce them.

Sharp falls in the price of many raw materials, including oil, copper and iron ore, over the past year have been seen as added proof that China, the biggest consumer of many commodities, is actually growing well below the stated rate.

“If you see the kind of hard data ent-ering into the composition of the so-called Li Keqiang index, growth is today probably closer to 5 per cent than 7 per cent,” said Jean-Louis Nakamura, chief Asia investment officer at Lombard Odier.

Some are more bearish. Lombard Street Research reckons China grew at an average rate of 4.7 per cent in the first half of the year, while Citi’s chief economist, Willem Buiter, believes growth could already be as low as 4 per cent.

Those views chime with a confidential survey conducted by Consensus Economics, a researcher, which asked economic forecasters what they believed the true rate of Chinese growth has been this year. Those polled gave an average growth figure for the second quarter of just 4.3 per cent, and a forecast for the current quarter of 5.1 per cent.

A separate Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers released on Tuesday showed that the majority of investors expect China to be growing at 4.1 per cent to 5 per cent in three years’ time. Most gave an answer of 5.1 per cent to 6 per cent just a month ago.

Figures about 5 per cent contrast with the consensus estimate from investment bank economists, which is currently 6.9 per cent for 2015.

David Meier, economist at Julius Baer, has an official forecast for this year

of 6.7 per cent, but notes “suspicion

that the figures could be 1 per cent to

2 per cent overdone”.

“At the end of the day, we have to comment, analyse and publish forecasts based on the official [gross domestic product] data series,” he said.

中国经济增长速度比官方公布的增长率慢得多，这种认知正成为主流观点。像不少人一样，全球投资者也是基于中国真实经济增速约为5%来做决策。

根据中国政府的统计，第二季度中国经济以7%的年率增长，这与北京方面为今年全年制定的增长目标相符，也与世界银行(World Bank)给出的估计值（7.1%）基本一致。

然而，长期以来，外界一直对中国经济数据的真实性存疑。许多分析师相信，中国的增长数据在快速增长的时期被低估，而在当前经济放缓的时期被高估。欧洲某资产管理公司的一名策略师将中国官方增长数据描述为“一件非常简陋的宣传工具”。

最近中国央行做出的让人民币贬值的决定令世界各地的市场躁动不安，此举也被视为中国真实经济状况比官方数据糟糕得多的证据。

一些人转而关注其他指标，比如“克强指数”——包含中国总理李克强看重的一些指标，比如用电量和铁路货运量等。去年末，“克强指数”中的许多指标都陷入了彻底收缩。

基金管理公司北方信托(Northern Trust)首席投资官鲍勃?布朗(Bob Browne)称，该公司最近将中国未来5年的增长预测调低至“5%多一点”。他说，这表示该公司已经认识到，使用官方数据“真的不再合适”。

“我们真的无法让官方数据与私营部门调查结果或更为可靠的、自下而上的政府数据相吻合，”他说。

对试图摸清全球大宗商品需求状况、并预测大宗商品生产国经济增长率的投资者和经济学家来说，中国经济增长的真实性质和速度是一个关键要素。

中国是许多大宗商品的最大消费国，过去一年石油、铜和铁矿石等多种原材料价格暴跌，被视为中国真实增长水平远低于官方公开数据的又一个证据。

“看看构成所谓‘克强指数’的那些实打实的数据就知道，现在的增长很可能更接近5%，而不是7%，”Lombard Odier首席亚洲投资官Jean-Louis Nakamura表示。

还有人更为悲观。朗伯德街研究公司(Lombard Street Research)估计中国今年上半年平均增速为4.7%，花旗(Citi)首席经济学家威廉姆?比特(Willem Buiter)则认为，增速可能已经低至4%。

这些观点和研究公司“共识经济学公司”(Consensus Economics)进行的一项保密调查的结果一致。该公司询问了多名经济预测者，问他们认为中国今年的真实增长率是多少。受访者估计的第二季度增长率的均值仅为4.3%，对当前这个季度的预测值为5.1%。

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)周二发布了一份对基金经理进行的调查，表明大多数投资者预计中国将在3年的时间里以4.1%到5%的速度增长。仅在一个月以前，大多数人给出的答案还是5.1%到6%。

约为5%的估计值和投行经济学家的共识预测形成了对比，后者目前预计中国2015年的增长率为6.9%。

宝盛(Julius Baer)经济学家戴维?迈耶(David Meier)预测，中国今年增长率的官方数字将为6.7%，但他指出“有人怀疑这里面可能有一两个百分点的水分”。

“归根结底，我们得基于官方的（国内生产总值）数据序列来进行评论、分析和发布预测，”迈耶说。

译者/许雯佳