【英语财经】汇丰：中国猪肉价格上涨不会影响CPI Chinese pork and inflation: not hamming it up

HSBC has just released a note arguing that recent rises in Chinese pork prices - by an average of 7 per cent year-on-year for each month starting in April - are no reason to worry about the overall effect on CPI writes Jennifer Thompson.

To put this in context you need to grasp the importance of the supply and cost of pork to the Chinese economy, and to do so requires the shortest of excursions back in time.

The Chinese pork industry has gone through something of a boom-and-bust cycle recently, mainly because a large chunk of the industry is composed of small, price-sensitive farmers raising relatively few animals. That often translates into wild gyrations in consumer pork prices year-to-year. In 2011 pork prices soared as supplies of pigs ran low: high input costs for farmers the year before were to blame. CPI that year was in a 4.1 to 6.5 per cent range; pork prices are one of the major determinants of the reading.

Indeed, as economists at HSBC note, pork is "historically the most volatile and disruptive component of China's CPI basket."

So why aren't they worried now?

Other contributors to CPI are stable or falling The prices of fresh fruit, mutton, chicken and eggs are falling. Grain prices are stable. And we shouldn't forget lower fuel prices, either.

The trend now is towards disinflation Disinflationary pressure is now the prevailing trend. CPI was 1.4 per cent in June, according to official figures - the third straight month of decline - fuelled by lack of demand and overcapacity as well as falling prices.

Pork's annual cycle is stabilising Suppliers have improved their judgement of the market, HSBC says, but domestic demand is also subdued, dampening that boom-and-bust cycle.

HSBC has run some numbers and believes that even if pork prices behave the way they did in 2011, CPI will still only run at 2.1 per cent at the end of the year with an average of 1.5 per cent for 2015 as a whole. This reading would still be well below Beijing's target of "around 3 per cent" this year.

As they conclude:

With this in mind, we believe the return of pork price inflation in 2015 will only generate a modest and short-lived impact on CPI inflation. With weak underlying price pressures, and sluggish economic activities, policy makers should feel comfortable continuing easing policies.

汇丰银行(HSBC)刚刚公布了一份报告，称不必因为最近中国猪肉价格的上涨而担心其对消费者价格指数(CPI)造成整体影响。从4月开始，猪肉价格每月平均同比上涨7%。

在这种情况下，需要理解猪肉供应和价格对于中国经济的重要性，因此我们需要以最短时间回顾一下。

最近，中国猪肉行业经历了一个荣衰周期，主要是因为该行业大部分从业者是对价格敏感的小农户，养猪数量较少。这经常造成猪肉同比价格大幅波动。2011年，猪肉价格飙升，因猪肉供应处于低位：原因是前一年农户的投入成本较高。当年的CPI介于4.1%至6.5%区间；猪肉价格是CPI主要决定因素之一。

实际上，正如汇丰银行经济学家指出的那样，猪肉“一直是中国CPI篮子里波动性和破坏性最强的因素。”

那么如今他们为什么不担心了呢？

CPI的其他因素稳定或下跌

新鲜水果、羊肉、鸡肉和蛋类的价格都在下跌。粮食价格保持稳定。我们也不应忘记油价下跌。

现在的趋势朝着通缩的方向

目前占主导地位的趋势是通缩压力。根据官方数据，今年6月的CPI为1.4%，为连续第3个月下滑，原因是需求匮乏、产能过剩以及物价下跌。

猪肉年度周期趋稳

汇丰表示，供应商改善了对市场的判断，但国内需求仍低迷，这打击了荣衰周期。

汇丰认为，即便猪肉价格像2011年那样飙升，到今年年底，CPI仍将位于2.1%，今年全年平均水平将在1.5%。这将远远低于中国政府为今年设定的“3%左右”的通胀目标。

汇丰银行经济学家总结称：“有鉴于此，我们认为，今年猪肉价格重新上涨只会对CPI造成短期微弱影响。由于基础价格疲弱的压力以及经济活动低迷，政策制定者应对继续实施宽松政策感到安心。”

译者/梁艳裳