【英语财经】FT社评：真正让市场发挥作用 Leader_Chinese stock market should find its own level

Year after year of strong and steady growth has imbued China’s rulers with an aura of omnipotence. But maintaining such an aura comes at a cost. Three weeks after China intervened to stem a stock market slide, share prices have tumbled again, with the Shanghai Composite recording its worst day in eight years. Beijing now faces an unenviable choice: to sink even more into propping up the market, or let slip its mask of invulnerability.

This is a dilemma they should never have needed to face. China’s rulers had more than enough on their plate without responsibility for how the stock market performs. Its economy is midway through a transition from over-reliance on debt and property investment. Services industries and household spending need to carry more of the burden of driving demand.

It is possible to make a case for how surging equity prices play a part in this economic plan. State-owned enterprises need more equity and less debt, which a richly valued stock market can help them to raise. Those households lucky enough to own shares gain a boost to their wealth, which encourages them to spend. A share price boom can even advertise the “decisive role for the market”, the phrase President Xi Jinping used to signal the overdue transition from state-mandated prices.

The truth is closer to the opposite. Rather than powering a consumption boom, the market has acted as a way of drawing money out of the wallets of households eagerly chasing after state-underwritten returns.

Worse, the behaviour of the stock market has scotched the idea that China’s rulers are relaxed about ceding control to market forces. The apparent blessing they bestowed on the boom, and the efforts they made to provide a floor to prices, suggest the market is dictated more by the whims of the state than by anything objectively economic. The government — via the Securities Association of China — even appeared to signal a target for the Shanghai Composite of 4,500.

Having appeared to backstop the market, there will be a price to pay should Beijing now step away. By some estimates, more than RMB3.5trn ($564bn) of debt is linked to speculation on shares. A few more days like Monday and the damage to household balance sheets could take a heavy toll on the economy.

But the greatest harm would be psychological. Having for so long appeared able to steer the economy where they wanted, China’s leadership would be forced to concede a clear limit to its powers. This could deal a severe blow to economic confidence at a time when the economy is already slowing.

Nevertheless, concede it must. There is no way to tell in advance how much the authorities must buy to stabilise share prices. Investor confidence premised wholly on state support vanishes as soon as the government stops buying. In the meantime, the longer that the market is at risk of haphazard interventions, the more that the planned shift towards market-based finance is set back. Restrictions on trading have already served to annoy international investors, and undermined efforts to turn the renminbi into an international reserve currency.

Ceding control to market forces not only sticks in the communist craw, but goes against the paternalism that still echoes through Chinese political life. But in the words of one prominent investor, the market “needs scary weeks” to become more secure. Should swooning share prices hit consumer sentiment, China has other levers to boost demand beyond buying stocks. If its rulers are wise, investors should expect more unsettling weeks ahead.

一年又一年强劲而稳定的增长，给中国统治者套上了无所不能的光环。但是，维持这样一个光环是有代价的。在中国政府采取干预行动以遏止股市滑坡的三周后，股价再次下挫，上证综指(Shanghai Composite)出现八年来最大单日跌幅。现在北京面临一个不值得羡慕的选择：加码救市，或是摘掉无所不能的面具。

这是当局本来根本不需要面对的一个两难。中国统治者有足够多的事情需要操心，无需对股市表现承担责任。中国经济正处于转型过程中，目的是摆脱对债务和房地产投资的过度依赖。服务业和家庭支出需要背负拉动需求的更大负担。

要说飙涨的股价在这个经济计划中能够发挥一定作用，是说得通的。国有企业需要增加股本和减少债务，估值较高的股市能够帮助它们募资。有幸拥有股票的家家户户财富增加，鼓励他们消费。牛市甚至可以宣传市场的“决定性作用”，那是国家主席习近平在宣布早就应该推行的改革——终结国家规定的价格时所用的措辞。

真相更接近反面。股市非但没有推动消费热潮，反而引诱家庭省下钱来投入股市，追逐国家担保的回报。

更糟的是，股市行为打破了这样的说法，即中国统治者愿意放手让市场力量发挥作用。他们对股市上涨的明显支持，以及他们付出的阻止股指跌破某个门槛的努力，似乎表明市场在更大程度上是由国家的冲动（而非任何客观经济因素）决定的。政府——通过中国证券业协会(Securities Association of China)——似乎甚至发出了信号：目标是上证综指回升至4500点。

在摆出了充当市场后盾的姿态后，北京方面现在如果走开不管是会有代价的。据一些人估测，中国逾3.5万亿元人民币（合5640亿美元）的债务与炒股关联。如果周一的暴跌重演几次，那么家庭资产负债表所受的损害可能给经济造成沉重代价。

但是，最大的伤害将是心理上的。在长期貌似有能力引导经济走向自己想要的方向之后，中国领导层将被迫承认自己的威力是有清晰限度的。这可能在中国经济已经在放缓之际重创经济信心。

然而，它必须承认。谁也没办法预先说清楚，当局必须砸下多少资金才能稳住股价。一旦政府停止买入，完全以国家支持为依托的投资者信心就会消失。与此同时，市场暴露于任性干预的风险越久，向市场化金融转型的计划就会遭遇越是严重的倒退。对交易的限制已经惹恼了国际投资者，并破坏了让人民币成为国际储备货币的努力。

向市场力量交出控制权不仅让共产党难以忍受，也与中国政治生活至今盛行的家长作风格格不入。但是，借用一位著名投资者的话说，市场“需要吓人的几周”才会变得更加安全。如果股价下滑影响消费者信心，中国政府即使不买股票也有其他手段可以提振需求。如果中国统治者是明智的，投资者应该准备好迎接令人不安的几周。

译者/和风