【英语财经】投资者庆幸A股未纳入MSCI指数 Short view: Omitting mainland China stock from MSCI index spares EM investors

Emerging market investors might count themselves lucky. As China’s stock market boom turns to bust, MSCI’s decision not to include mainland shares in its global EM index looks increasingly merciful.

EM fund managers have plenty of bad news to contend with already. Brazil and Russia are in recession, growth is sliding everywhere from Indonesia to Turkey to Peru, while the US Federal Reserve is inching closer to a rate rise. Throw in the rout in global commodities, which many developing nations dig up and export, and it is the closest thing in years to a perfect storm.

But how much do these well-worn EM worries really matter to fund managers benchmarked to MSCI indices? The answer is perhaps not so much.

The EM index, which is followed by funds holding more than $1.5tn in assets globally, is heavily-focused on two sectors: Asian tech, and Chinese financials. Of the top 10 holdings, three are involved in making consumer electronics — Samsung, Hon Haiand TSMC. Three of China’s big four state-owned banks are in there, as is Ping An, the insurer. Online games maker Tencent, Naspers— its South African shareholder — and China Mobilecomplete the list. Together these companies make up almost a fifth of the index. China, South Korea and Taiwan account for over half the benchmark, with no other single country having a weighting above 8 per cent.

So what should be keeping EM investors up at night?

For one, China’s stock market gyrations are actually close to home — big lenders and insurers have been hit hard by the recent sell-off, and are doubly on the hook either through loans made to other investors, or through direct holdings of their own.

Global consumer technology trends are also important to watch. Samsung’s smartphone division has been struggling as low-cost Chinese competitors like Xiaomi and Huawei gobble up market share in the mainland market. Apple’s recent disappointment is also worth watching — Hon Hai derives more than a third of its revenue from the iPhone.

Active managers trying to navigate the bad headlines may still be torpedoed by the effect of passive funds. If a rising dollar and falling commodity prices prompt investors to pull cash from EM trackers, then the nuances of the different companies, sectors and geographies could quickly be forgotten.

新兴市场投资者或许会自感幸运。随着中国股市从牛转熊，MSCI明晟作出的不把A股纳入其新兴市场指数的决定，愈来愈令人感到庆幸。

新兴市场基金经理要面对的坏消息已经够多了。巴西和俄罗斯都在衰退。从印度尼西亚到土耳其再到秘鲁，经济增长都在下滑。美联储(Federal Reserve)加息指日可待。国际大宗商品价格暴跌，而许多发展中国家是大宗商品的生产及出口国。这些加在一起无疑是多年以来最可能会引发一场完美风暴的事件。

但对于那些把MSCI新兴市场指数作为基准的基金经理来说，这些老生常谈的有关新兴市场的担忧对他们有多大影响？答案是也许没那么大。

在全球范围内，追踪MSCI新兴市场指数的基金总共持有逾1.5万亿美元资产。该指数严重偏向两个领域：亚洲高科技，以及中国金融。在前10大成分股中，有三只涉及消费电子产品制造——三星(Samsung)、鸿海(Hon Hai)和台积电(TSMC)。中国四大国有银行中的三家都位居其中，还有平安保险(Ping An Insurance)。剩余三家分别为网游厂商腾讯(Tencent)、持有腾讯股份的南非传媒公司Naspers，以及中国移动(China Mobile)。这十家公司合计占了MSCI新兴市场指数将近五分之一的权重。中国大陆、韩国和台湾地区占了该指数一半以上，其他国家没有一个权重超过8%。

那么，让新兴市场投资者夜不能寐的应该是什么？

其一，中国股市的剧烈波动实际上已经击中了要害，大型银行和保险公司在近期的暴跌中遭受重创，它们由于向其他投资者提供了贷款或直接持有其他公司股份而处于双重困境。

观察全球消费科技领域的发展形势也很重要。随着小米(Xiaomi)、华为(Huawei)等低成本中国竞争对手抢占中国内地市场份额，三星的智能手机部门一直在苦苦支撑。苹果最近令人失望的业绩也值得关注——鸿海超过三分之一的收入来自iPhone。

试图安稳渡过这一坏消息不断时期的主动型基金经理，仍可能会受指数型基金牵连。如果美元升值与大宗商品价格下跌促使投资者将资金抽离追踪新兴市场的基金，那么不同企业、行业及地域之间的细微差别或许很快就会被遗忘。

译者/何黎