【英语财经】中国未来3年拟投资4.7万亿元兴建交通设施 Beijing to boost transport infrastructure

China is to pump almost Rmb5tn ($770bn) into transport infrastructure over the next three years, in a sign of its determination to use state investment to keep the economy humming.

However, analysts said the announcement by the transport ministry added to a sense of confusion about the direction of economic policy. Infrastructure spending served China well when it was growing rapidly and seeking to build a modern economy, but in recent years it has resulted in white elephants, industrial overcapacity, economic distortions and debt.

The announcement yesterday of the spending programme — Rmb5tn is equivalent to 6.9 per cent of China’s 2015 gross domestic product — comes despite other influential voices warning this week of the alarming degree of leverage in the Chinese economy.

On Monday, Communist party mouthpiece the People’s Daily carried a front-page interview with an “authoritative figure”, who said the country’s soaring debt levels could lead to “systemic financial risks”.

“This week is a week of mixed signals,” said Andrew Batson, an economist at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “They’re swinging between poles of emphasising support for growth and emphasising structural reform. It’s not clear what message they are trying to send.”

It is unclear to what extent the funding targets acknowledged this week are new or previously budgeted and approved projects. Many are likely to have been flagged in the five-year plan, approved in March at the annual legislative meeting.

Under a joint action plan from the ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, Rmb4.7tn will be provided for 303 projects, including railways, roads, waterways, airports and metro systems.

“The question is how that amount is financed. So it’s ultimately about monetary policy, because ultimately most infrastructure spending is financed by debt,” Mr Batson said.

The figure, in an article from the official transportation news service republished yesterday on the ministry’s website, has refocused attention on the scale of China’s continuing infrastructure investment.

The article asserts that transportation infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the requirements of China’s social and economic development in terms of coverage and quality.

It calls for a concerted drive to enhance and maintain the national network.

The latest round of funding is likely to benefit the flagging heavy industry and construction sectors and follows an announcement from the NDRC on Tuesday that Rmb1.6tn would be ploughed into 130 projects in the ailing rust belt of the north-eastern provinces.

Zhou Jianping, the NDRC official in charge of reviving the north-east, said on Tuesday that the funds could not be considered a subsidy from Beijing to the struggling region. Rather, he said, funds would be allocated by project.

“If it is appropriate, then we will give some money,” he said.

Additional reporting by Gloria Cheung

中国将在未来三年期间投入近5万亿元人民币（合7700亿美元）建设交通基础设施，这个迹象表明政府决心动用国家投资来保持经济“轰鸣”。

不过，分析师们表示，交通运输部的宣布令人对中国经济政策的走向更加困惑。在中国经济高速增长和寻求打造现代化经济的年代，基建支出对国家十分有用，但近年这类支出带来了大而无当的工程、工业产能过剩、经济扭曲以及债务。

与昨日宣布这一支出计划（5万亿元人民币相当于中国2015年国内生产总值的6.9%）似乎矛盾的是，本周一些有影响力的声音警告称，中国经济的杠杆高得令人震惊。

周一，中共机关报《人民日报》头版发表对“权威人士”的采访，称中国不断飙升的债务水平可能导致“系统性金融风险”。

“本周是各种信号混杂的一个星期，”北京龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示， “他们在强调支持增长与强调结构改革的两极之间摇摆。不清楚他们想要传递什么信息。”

目前尚不清楚最新宣布的支出目标在多大程度上涉及新资金，在多大程度上涉及已编列预算且审批通过的项目。很有可能的是，不少项目已被列入3月全国人大年度会议批准的五年规划。

根据中国国家发展改革委(NDRC)和交通运输部联合印发的《交通基础设施重大工程建设三年行动计划》，未来三年拟重点推进303个项目（包括铁路、公路、水路、机场和城市轨道交通项目），涉及项目总投资4.7万亿元人民币。

“现在的问题是这些资金将从哪里筹集。因此，最终而言关键在于货币政策，因为大部分基建支出的资金归根结底将通过债务筹集，”白安儒表示。

4.7万亿元人民币的数字最初来自官方的中国交通新闻网的一篇文章，该文昨日被交通运输部官网转载。它再度令人关注中国基础设施投资所保持的规模。

该文断言，与中国的经济社会发展需求相比，交通基础设施在覆盖范围和质量水平等方面还存在较大差距。

文章呼吁做出全方位努力，完善和维护覆盖全国的交通网络。

最新一轮的资金很可能造福于低迷的重工业和建筑业。此前国家发改委周二宣布，将向东北三省困境中的“锈带”的130个项目投入1.6万亿元人民币。

发改委东北等老工业基地振兴司司长周建平周二表示，这些资金不能被视为北京方面对困境中的东北地区的“补贴”。他表示，资金将根据项目进行分配。

“只要项目是适当的，我们就会拨出资金，”他说。

Gloria Cheung补充报道

译者/和风