【英语财经】投资者应重估“A股战略” Investors will need to bridge strategy gap as China shares go global

When Shanghai and Hong Kong first opened their stock markets to each other late in 2014, one hedge fund launched just to arbitrage the different valuations the two markets offered on the same companies.

Eighteen months on, that fund has closed and the valuation gap has widened. Yet even as worries grow over how China will balance growth with its need to work out its still-growing pile of debt, investors and index providers believe interest in trading Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and on the mainland is greater than ever — so much so that the first exchange-traded fund just launched, offering a similar arbitrage as the failed fund.

Two looming developments could bring a little more reality to what is still largely a theoretical opportunity since by most estimates foreigners hold just 2 per cent of China’s vast stock markets.

Last month MSCI revealed a road map for including mainland-listed companies in its benchmark emerging markets indices. A straw poll of analysts suggests they think the chances are rising that the index provider will indeed go ahead when it concludes its consultation in June.

Also in the coming weeks, authorities are expected to confirm the inauguration of a direct link between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen bourses, expanding the companies available via the “Stock Connect” that joined Shanghai and the former British colony in November 2014 and provided international investors with their first direct access to mainland stocks.

Making it easier for investors to access, and exit, mainland markets is key to China’s inclusion in internationally followed benchmarks.

“It’s no longer a question of if, but of when and how,” says Mark Makepeace, head of FTSE Russell.

The index provider last year introduced a series of “transition” indices that include a gradually increasing weighting to mainland stocks to allow index-tracking investors to adjust their China exposure at their own pace. Currently, China A-shares account for 5.9 per cent of those indices.

Underlining the opportunity — or risk — of China, if mainland-listed stocks were fully included in its benchmarks tomorrow, China would make up 27.6 per cent of the FTSE’s emerging market index based on the investment quotas granted to foreigners.

Assume those were lifted, and it would jump to 36 per cent. For MSCI, if China were fully included, mainland companies, together with US-listed Chinese groups such as Alibaba, would account for 40 per cent of its benchmark emerging market index — tracked by up to $1.5tn of funds.

Combined, Shanghai and Shenzhen have a market capitalisation of almost $7tn, second only to New York, and in spite of last year’s rout, still comfortably ahead of Tokyo’s $5tn. The opening-up of China’s equity market can only be described as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity — or risk.

“China is still very much considered a market you buy or sell on the macro view. But we believe that, over time, will change,” says Marco Montanari, Asia-Pacific head of Deutsche Bank’s passive asset management unit, which is setting up a series of China-focused funds including the arbitrage one. To give it its full name, the fund is called the DB x-trackers Harvest FTSE China AH 50 Index ETF. It follows the 50 biggest companies in China, but allows the fund to choose either the A or the H share.

When Shanghai and Hong Kong opened Stock Connect, mainland A shares and Hong Kong-listed H shares were trading at roughly the same prices. Now, according to the Hang Seng’s A-H Premium index, the A shares are 30 per cent more expensive. Bring in valuations and the gap widens further: China’s CSI 300 trades on 13 times expected earnings, Hang Seng’s China Enterprises Index, made up of H shares, on seven times. Mr Montanari adds: “Investors will need to be exposed to China in some amount as from being a tactical play, it becomes a strategic one.”

He is right that China is becoming strategic, even if the valuation gap suggests there will be no stampede when the Shenzhen link opens or if MSCI changes its rules. But each of those moves, and each new fund launch, brings China a step closer to international investors. Now if only every tactical thinker could figure out what strategy to apply.

当2014年末沪港通开通、首次实现上海和香港股市互联互通时，一家对冲基金成立了，只为针对同一公司在两地的不同估值进行套利。

一年半过去，这家基金已倒闭，而两地估值差距扩大了。然而，在中国将如何在增长与化解仍在加重的债务负担之间取得平衡引发更深担忧之际，投资者和指数提供商相信，目前在香港和内地上市的中国股票引起的交易兴趣比任何时候都要强烈，结果是刚刚成立了第一只这方面的交易所交易基金(ETF)，提供类似倒闭的那家对冲基金的套利交易。

即将发生的两件事，可能让目前来说仍主要存在于理论中的机遇（因为据估算，外国投资者对中国庞大股市的持有比例仅为2%），距离实现更近一步。

3月，MSCI明晟公布了把中国A股纳入其基准新兴市场指数的路线图。一份对分析师的调查显示，他们认为MSCI明晟在6月征求意见结束时真正决定纳入A股的可能性在增加。

同时，未来几周里，预计中国当局将确定启动“深港通”，在深港两市之间建立直接连接。这将扩大外国投资者可以购买的中国股票清单。2014年11月，沪港通启动，国际投资者第一次可以直接购买中国内地股票。

使投资者更容易进出中国内地股市，是中国股票被纳入在国际上受到追踪的股票指数的关键。

“这不再是会不会的问题，而是什么时间和以何种方式的问题，”富时罗素(FTSE Russell)的首席执行官麦思平(Mark Makepeace)说。

去年，富时罗素推出了一系列“过渡性”指数——逐渐提升其中中国A股的权重，允许指数跟踪型投资者按自己的步伐调整对中国股票的敞口。目前，中国A股占这些指数的权重为5.9%。

凸显中国带来的机遇（或风险）的是，如果未来中国A股完全被纳入富时罗素的指数，那么基于外国投资者获得的投资配额，中国A股占富时新兴市场指数的权重将达到27.6%。

假如取消针对外国投资者的配额限制，中国A股的权重将跃升至36%。对MSCI明晟而言，如果中国A股被全部纳入，那么中国内地上市企业加上阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等美国上市的中国企业，在其基准新兴市场指数中的权重将达到40%。追踪MSCI明晟新兴市场指数的资金高达1.5万亿美元。

沪深两市总市值接近7万亿美元，仅次于纽约股市，尽管经历了去年的大跌，仍远远高于市值5万亿美元的东京股市。只能用千载难逢的机遇（或风险）来形容中国股市的开放。

“在很大程度上，人们仍将中国看作一个基于宏观视角去买卖股票的市场。但我们认为，随着时间推移，这一点将发生改变，”德银(Deutsche Bank)亚太区被动型资产管理部门主管马尔科?蒙塔纳里(Marco Montanari)说。他的部门即将推出一系列中国主题基金，其中包括前述套利ETF。它的全名叫德银x-trackers 嘉实富时中国AH50指数ETF基金(DB x-trackers Harvest FTSE China AH 50 Index ETF)，标的是中国最大的50家上市公司，但该基金可以选择投资A股还是H股。

当沪港通启动时，内地A股和香港H股的价格大致相当。如今，恒生AH股溢价指数(Hang Seng China AH Premium Index)显示，A股比H股贵30%。按估值来衡量的话，两者之间差距更大了：A股的沪深300(CSI 300)指数的预期市盈率为13倍，由H股构成的恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)的预期市盈率仅为7倍。蒙塔纳里补充说：“投资者将必须配置一定的中国股票，因为这从战术性需要变成了战略性需要。”

他认为，中国股票将具有战略性，即便估值差距表明，当深港通启动或MSCI明晟改变自身规则时，不会出现投资者蜂拥而至的场面。他的这种看法是正确的。但这两件事中的任何一件，以及每只新基金的发行，都让国际投资者距离中国更近一步。现在，但愿每个从战术角度思考的人都能想清楚该采取何种战略。

译者/邢嵬