【英语财经】中国放弃玉米价格支持政策 China could face paper losses of over $10bn on its corn reserves

The Chinese government could face paper losses of more than $10bn on its state-owned corn reserves as it shakes up its agricultural support policy.

Beijing last month announced that it would end its price support policy in an attempt to reduce its mounting corn stockpile, starting with the upcoming harvest this year.

“The government has now abandoned price support policies for all commodities except wheat and rice,” confirmed the Beijing bureau of the US Department Agriculture in a report released on Thursday.

The Chinese government’s announcement led to a 10 per cent fall in the new crop corn price traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, said the USDA report.

“A Rmb600 per tonne write down on corn stocks would result in a paper loss of over $10bn,” it said, adding that the total cost was likely to be higher as the figure did not take into account storage costs.

“Some corn stocks may have lost their entire value as they are too deteriorated to sell,” it said.

Beijing’s agricultural support policy has led to mounting surpluses, while cheap imports have also led to domestic corn being left unconsumed. Huge state inventories as well as falling productivity and environmental deterioration were forcing China to overhaul its policy, said the USDA.

The report comes after international agricultural trade bosses this week said that China could turn to exports to reduce its corn stocks.

The head of Cargill’s grain trading said earlier this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that there was a “fifty-fifty” chance of China exporting some of its inventories.

Gert-Jan van den Akker, president of Cargill’s agricultural supply chain, said: “[The Chinese] don’t need to export that through corn exports itself” — damaged corn could also be turned into industrial starch or ethanol before being sold, he added.

“China has a huge starch industry,” he said.

China would be breaching WTO rules by selling its subsidised corn overseas.

However, it could wait until this year’s harvest, which would not be supported by the state, to export its corn, said another agricultural trader.

The country is seen to hold about 100m tonnes of corn in its grain reserves. The last time the country exported significant amounts internationally was in the 2006-07 crop year, when it sold more than 5m tonnes.

The USDA Beijing bureau forecast overall corn acreage to fall 3 per cent, although it added that the corn planting season had already begun.

“According to contacts in north-east China, most farmers have already made planting decisions and cannot easily change plans based on the cancellation of the temporary reserve programme,” it added.

随着中国政府调整农业支持政策，其国有玉米储备可能面临逾100亿美元的账面损失。

北京方面上月宣布，将从今年收获季开始结束价格支持政策，此举旨在削减日益增加的玉米库存。

在周四发布的一份报告中，美国农业部(USDA)北京农业事务处证实：“中国政府现已放弃了除小麦和大米以外所有大宗商品的价格支持政策。”

美国农业部的报告称，中国政府的声明导致在大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity exchange)交易的新玉米价格下跌了10%。

它表示：“玉米库存每吨减值600元人民币将导致逾100亿美元的账面亏损。”报告补充称，总成本可能更高，因为该数据没有考虑仓储成本。

它表示：“一些玉米库存可能丧失全部价值，因为它们变质得太厉害，根本卖不出去。”

中国的农业支持政策导致玉米日益过剩，同时廉价进口也导致国产玉米没有被消费掉。美国农业部表示，庞大的政府库存以及生产率不断下降和环境恶化，正迫使中国调整其政策。

该报告发布之前，国际农产品贸易机构的掌门人本周纷纷表示，中国可能转向出口以削减其玉米库存。

嘉吉(Cargill)的谷物贸易主管本周早些时候在英国《金融时报》全球大宗商品峰会(FT Commodities Global Summit)上表示，中国有“五成”的可能性出口一部分库存。

嘉吉农业供应链总裁格特-简?范登奥凯尔(Gert-Jan van den Akker)表示：“（中国人）不需要通过玉米本身出口而出口。”他补充称，变质玉米也可以先制成工业淀粉或者乙醇，然后再销售。

他说：“中国拥有庞大的淀粉工业。”

如果中国向海外销售其接受补贴的玉米，将违反世贸组织(WTO)规则。

然而，另一位农业贸易商表示，中国可以等到今年收获之后再出口玉米，今年收获的玉米价格将不会受到政府的支持。

外界认为中国的谷物储备中有大约1亿吨的玉米。上次中国大量出口是在2006-07作物年度，当时它销售了逾500万吨。

美国农业部北京农业事务处预计中国整体玉米种植面积下降3%，不过它补充称，玉米种植季已经开始。

它接着说道：“中国东北的消息人士称，大多数农民已经做出了种植决定，不可能因为临时收储项目取消而轻易改变计划。”

译者/邹策