【英语财经】中国工业企业利润出现18个月来最快增速 China industrial profits grow fastest since 2014

Profits at Chinese industrial companies have risen at their fastest pace in more than 18 months, in a sign that stimulus measures are helping to cushion the slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector.

China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in 25 years last year, and analysts expect a further slowdown this year. The factory sector, the main engine of growth over the past two decades, has been the hardest hit, as rampant excess capacity and weak demand have led to price declines.

Official data released on Sunday showed industrial profits rose 4.8 per cent in January and February compared to a year earlier and in contrast to a fall of 4.7 per cent in December. The rise ends a seven-month string of negative growth and marks the fastest growth since July 2014.

“Sales and profit margins in sectors exposed to the consumer [are] holding up much better than in those where the downturn in real estate construction has exposed major excess capacity and unleashed relentless downward pressure on margins,” Louis Kuijs, head of Asia for Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, wrote last week. “Employment has already been cut significantly in the badly hit sectors.”

China’s statistics bureau reports a single figure for the first two months of each year to eliminate seasonal distortions from the irregular timing of the lunar new year holiday. Producer price inflation, which measures changes in wholesale prices, has been negative for 48 consecutive months but price declines narrowed in February, helping to boost profits.

Signs of a bottoming-out in prices for global commodities such as crude oil and iron ore are also welcome news for China’s factory sector, where much of the deflationary pressure is imported. Throughout the slowdown in the factory sector, profit margins have held up better than nominal growth in profits, due to the fall in raw material prices. But for Chinese companies with high debt levels fixed in nominal terms, maintaining revenue growth in nominal terms remains crucial.

Li Keqiang, premier, told an annual parliament session this month that “supply-side reform”, which focuses on dealing with industrial overcapacity, would be a top priority for 2016.

But analysts have said initial targets for cutting steel capacity are short of what is needed to restore balance between supply and demand and revive prices. Opposition from local governments and workers also highlights the challenges of shutting down “zombie” factories.

“The government’s plans to cut overcapacity seem modest compared to the scale of the problems,” Mr Kuijs said. “The downward pressure on profit margins in the affected sectors is likely to remain substantial.”

中国工业企业利润出现逾18个月以来最快增速，这个迹象表明各种刺激措施正在帮助缓解中国制造业的减速。

中国经济去年录得25年来最慢增速，而分析师们预期今年将进一步放缓。工厂部门作为过去20年里中国经济增长的主要引擎，近期变成了重灾区；严重的产能过剩和需求疲软导致价格下跌。

但分析师们表示，宽松货币政策助燃了住房建设出现温和复苏，而在基础设施建设方面加大财政支出，今年也提振了对中国工厂产出的需求。

周日发布的官方数据显示，1月和2月工业企业利润同比增长4.8%，与12月的下降4.7%形成对比。这一增长结束了持续七个月的负增长，而且是自2014年7月以来的最快增长。

“相比那些被房地产建设低迷暴露出重大产能过剩、并释放出无情利润率下行压力的行业，面向消费者的那些行业的销售和利润率保持得较好。”牛津经济(Oxford Economics)常驻香港的亚洲区负责人高路易(Louis Kuijs)上周写道，“遭受重创的那些行业的就业已经被显著削减。”

中国国家统计局对每年的头两个月报告一个数字，以消除春节日期变动所造成的季节性扭曲。衡量批发价格变化的生产者价格指数(PPI)已连续48个月出现负值，但价格降幅在2月份有所收窄，帮助提高利润。

对中国的工厂部门来说，原油和铁矿石等全球大宗商品价格见底的迹象也是利好消息；大宗商品价格下降是很大一部分通缩压力的源头。在整个工厂部门放缓期间，利润率比名义利润增长保持得更好，得益于原材料价格下降。但对那些名义债务水平较高的中国企业而言，保持名义营收增长仍是至关重要的。

中国总理李克强本月曾在全国人大年度会议上表示，专注于对付工业产能过剩的“供给侧改革”将是2016年的重中之重。

但分析师们表示，削减钢铁产能的初步目标不足以恢复供需平衡和重振价格。来自地方政府和工人的反对，也突显了关停“僵尸”工厂的挑战。

“相对于问题的规模，政府削减产能过剩的计划显得有些温和，”高路易表示，“受影响行业的利润率下行压力很可能仍然会很大。”

译者/和风