【英语财经】房地产投资会降温吗？ Real estate investors braced for tide to turn

Global real estate has enjoyed two plentiful years — attracting $700bn in direct investment in 2015 and slightly more the year before, not far from the record $758bn achieved in 2007, according to the Chicago-based estate agency JLL.

But 2016 began with equity and bond markets in turmoil, while prices for buildings in key office centres such as London and New York have been coming off record highs. That left the industry with one question to answer: has the market peaked?

“The bloom has come off the rose a bit in terms of real estate valuations,” says Jon Zehner, global head of client capital group at LaSalle Investment Management, one of the world’s largest real estate fund managers. “The prime market in gateway cities needed to stabilise — it was getting too hot. This could be an appropriate correction. A period of more stable values and maybe a little less passion in the market is what we’re envisioning for the year.”

Elisabeth Troni, global real estate strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management, says the company’s indicators show “late cycle risks” and it predicts that values will fall in 2016, with the UK market “flat to declining”. But she adds: “We’re not foreseeing a crash.”

A crucial question is the direction of investor appetite. A wave of institutional capital has surged into real estate over the past two years, driven by the search for returns.

That capital has increasingly crossed borders and continents: 20 per cent of real estate deals in 2015 were cross-border, according to Savills. It has also helped to push values up for income-generating “alternative” real estate, such as student accommodation.

Yet according to research late last year by Hodes Weill, the real estate advisers, and Cornell University, institutions remain “significantly underinvested” in property, by an average 110 basis points compared to their own targets.

Property investments are still able to offer more income than other asset classes, which is one of their key selling points. Even US offices, one of the most highly priced sectors in the world, offer a 370 basis point premium over yields from 10-year government bonds, according to figures from Green Street Advisors.

Axa Investment Managers has just raised ￠500m for a new core real estate fund and has ambitions to expand the vehicle to ￠5bn. Its launch was driven by growing allocations from pension funds, especially in the Nordics and Benelux region, says Isabelle Scemama, global head of real asset finance.

On the other hand, says Mr Zehner at LaSalle, drops in bond and equity values mean some institutions in the UK, US and Australia are reducing their property holdings this year to stay within fixed allocation boundaries.

As the oil price remains low and China’s markets weak, an important question is whether the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and Asian corporates that have been snapping up big-ticket assets will remain active.

So far, the signals are mixed. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the world’s second-largest sovereign wealth fund, acquired the planned Tour Alto office development in Paris’s La Défense business district in February, a sign of continued activity in the market.

However, Walter Boettcher, director of research and forecasting at Colliers, the estate agency, says: “There are clear signs that continued low oil prices will impact oil sovereign strategies, especially when combined with other market events.”

Malaysian funds have been selling overseas real estate assets over the past year to repatriate capital as their home country suffers from the oil slump.

Within east Asia, market turmoil does not so far appear to have hurt demand for real estate: investment volumes into Chinese, Hong Kong and Taiwanese property were up 47 per cent, 66 per cent and 18 per cent respectively in 2015 from a year earlier, according to JLL. Chinese investment into Europe meanwhile appears to be on the increase, says Mr Boettcher — though Asian investors are switching their focus to continental Europe from the highly-priced UK.

“A lot of the money coming out of China to invest in real estate is not institutional. It’s corporates or ultra-high-net-worth [individuals],” says Mr Zehner. “The volatility and depreciation in the renminbi have actually seemed to encourage them to invest outside of China — they are looking for stability, diversification and more stable currencies, at least for now.”

Agents expect significant new flows from Japan. There Japan Post Bank — which has a $500bn investment fund — has said it aims to divert more cash into global risk assets including real estate. At least two other major Japanese institutions are also looking to expand their overseas property holdings, said Richard DiVall, head of cross-border capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Colliers.

Investors’ first concern remains the level of demand for buildings on the ground. In developed markets, banks’ unwillingness to lend for speculative development has led to much tighter supply than in the last cycle, say analysts, as well as less financial risk.

They point to a bright spot in Australia, where real estate on the country’s east coast has suffered less than expected from the commodities slump. “The office markets and labour markets have surprised repeatedly in recent months. The markets had been preparing for a downturn but they have been positively surprised on net income growth,” says Ms Troni of Aberdeen Asset Management.

Private equity investors are meanwhile turning their attention to Italy, where the government is moving to improve private investors’ opportunities to profitably access non-performing real estate loans, while economic recovery there has also drawn the attention of sovereign wealth funds, which have been buying up Milan property.

For “higher-octane returns”, La Salle is looking to the US and Asia, seeing opportunities for bargains driven by distressed sellers bitten by Chinese economic and market turbulence.

On a broader scale, demographics are driving up interest in residential property. This segment’s share of overall investment in the property market has almost doubled to 18 per cent since the downturn, according to Savills.

Homes for millennials in developed economies and the middle class in emerging countries are seen as profitable plays on long-term trends, as are the warehouse sites that cater for their online shopping.

In the shorter term, Mr Boettcher argues “it is too soon to declare an end to the bull market” in commercial property. From New York to Shanghai, investors will be hoping he is right.

全球房地产市场度过了两个“丰年”。总部在芝加哥的房地产咨询公司仲量联行(JLL)的数据显示，全球房地产在2015年吸引了7000亿美元的直接投资，而2014年吸引的直接投资还要更多一些，仅略低于2007年创出的7580亿美元的历史最高纪录。

但在2016年伊始，股市和债市陷入动荡，同时伦敦和纽约等主要商务中心的房价从历史高位滑落。这让该行业不得不回答一个问题：市场见顶了吗？

拉塞尔投资管理公司(LaSalle Investment Management)的客户资本集团全球主管乔恩?泽纳(Jon Zehner)表示：“就房地产价值而言，巅峰时期已经过去。中心城市的高端市场需要稳定——它已经有些过热。这可能是一次适当的修正。我们预计2016年房地产价值更为稳定，市场狂热稍有下降。”拉塞尔投资管理公司是全球最大的房地产基金管理公司之一。

安本资产管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的全球房地产策略师伊丽莎白?特罗尼(Elisabeth Troni)表示，该公司的指标表明，全球房地产市场将会出现“周期末风险”，并预测房地产价格将在2016年下跌，而英国市场“稳中有降”。但她补充称：“我们预计不会崩盘。”

一个关键问题是投资者兴趣的方向。为了寻求高回报，一波机构资本在过去两年涌入房地产领域。

资本日益跨过国界和洲界：第一太平戴维斯(Savills)的数据显示，在2015年达成的房地产交易中有20%是跨境性质的。它还帮助推高了收益型“另类”房地产的价值，比如学生宿舍。

然而，房地产咨询公司Hodes Weill和康奈尔大学(Cornell University)去年年末的研究显示，机构在房地产上的投资依然“明显不足”，与它们自己的目标平均相差110个基点。

房地产投资收益仍能够超过其他资产类别，这是它们的主要卖点之一。Green Street Advisors的数据显示，美国写字楼的收益率比十年期政府债券的收益率还要高出370个基点，而美国写字楼是世界上价格最高的资产领域之一。

安盛投资管理公司(Axa Investment Managers)刚刚为一只新的核心房地产基金募集了5亿欧元资金，并雄心勃勃地打算将该基金规模扩大至50亿欧元。安盛房地产金融全球主管伊莎贝尔?塞马马(Isabelle Scemama)表示，该基金发行受到养老基金日益加大地产类配置的推动，尤其是在北欧国家和比荷卢地区。

拉塞尔的泽纳表示，另一方面，债市和股市的下跌意味着英国、美国和澳大利亚的一些机构今年将会削减所持的房地产以满足固定配置限额。

在油价依然处于低位和中国市场疲弱之际，一个重要问题是，一直在抢购大宗资产的中东主权财富基金和亚洲企业是否会依然保持活跃。

迄今为止，这方面的迹象好坏参半。全球第二大主权财富基金阿布扎比投资局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)今年2月收购了规划中的、位于巴黎拉德芳斯商业区的Tour Alto写字楼开发项目，这是市场持续活动的迹象。

然而，房地产服务公司高力(Colliers)的研究和预测总监沃尔特?贝彻(Walter Boettcher)表示：“有明显迹象显示，油价持续处于低位将影响石油主权财富基金的投资策略，尤其是与其他市场事件叠加影响的时候。”

随着马来西亚经济受到油价暴跌的冲击，该国基金公司在过去一年里一直在出售海外房地产资产以回收资本。

在东亚，市场动荡迄今似乎没有伤及房地产的投资需求：仲量联行的数据显示，对中国内地、香港和台湾房地产的投资在2015年分别比上一年增长了47%、66%和18%。贝彻表示，同时中国对欧洲的投资似乎也在增长，不过亚洲投资者正将投资重点从价格高企的英国转向欧洲大陆。

泽纳表示：“中国投向海外房地产的许多资金并不是机构的，而是企业或者超高净值（个人）的。人民币汇率波动和贬值实际上鼓励他们向海外投资——他们寻求稳定性、多元化以及更为稳定的货币，至少就目前而言。”

房地产服务公司预计日本将有大量资金投向海外。拥有5000亿美元投资基金的日本邮政银行(Japan Post Bank)已经表示，计划将更多的资金投向包括房地产在内的全球风险资产。高力公司负责欧洲、中东和非洲跨境资本市场业务的理查德?迪瓦尔(Richard DiVall)表示，至少还有两家日本大机构也在寻求扩大海外房地产投资。

投资者的首要关切依然是现房的需求水平。分析师们表示，在发达市场，银行不愿向投机性开发活动提供贷款，这导致供应比上一个周期紧张得多，而且金融风险也较低。

他们指出澳大利亚有一个亮点，该国东海岸的房地产受大宗商品暴跌的影响小于预期。安本资产管理的特罗尼表示：“写字楼市场和劳动力市场最近几个月屡屡出人意外。这些市场本来准备迎接低迷，但它们在净收益增长方面却带来惊喜。”

与此同时，私人股权投资者将注意力转向了意大利——意大利政府现在正采取行动，加大私人投资者从房地产不良贷款中获利的机会，同时该国经济复苏也吸引了主权财富基金的注意，后者一直在抢购米兰的房地产。

为获得“更优质的回报”，拉塞尔正将目光投向美国和亚洲，那里的卖家因中国经济及市场的波动而受到冲击，因此有了逢低吸纳的机会。

从更广泛的层面来说，人口因素正推升投资者对住宅类地产的兴趣。第一太平戴维斯的数据显示，自经济低迷以来，对这类地产的投资在房地产市场投资总额中所占的比例几乎翻了一倍，达到18%。

针对发达经济体“千禧代”和新兴市场国家中产阶层的住房从长期趋势来说是会产生收益的，迎合这类人网购趋势的仓库也是如此。

较短期而言，贝彻辩称，现在“宣称（商业地产）牛市终结还为时尚早”。从纽约到上海，投资者都会希望他说得没错。

译者/邹策