【英语财经】“一带一路”将推动亚洲资本市场繁荣 China’s “belt and road” plan is boon for Asia capital markets

China’s “Belt and Road” infrastructure investment drive will help boost the flow of physical goods across large swathes of Eurasia, southern Asia and even parts of Africa and the Middle East. Less obvious is the impact that the vast amount of spending linked to the initiative will have in the financial arena – in the currency and bond markets in Asia and beyond.

First announced in 2013, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an essential part of China’s domestic economic rebalancing, and of its outbound ambitions. The initiative entails ploughing billions of dollars into the hardware – railways, highways and ports – that links mainland China and the dozens of countries to its west and south. The goal is to encourage more cross-border trade while putting excess capacities to work.

The impact on the software of financing will also be significant: the vast amounts of money needed to meet Asia’s infrastructure needs will inject fresh momentum into the region’s capital markets.

Investment in planned and ongoing “Belt and Road” projects could total Rmb1.5tn (roughly $240bn) in the coming years. Part of this will come via a $40bn Silk Road Fund, and the newly-launched $100bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Yet this is only a small part of the trillions that will need to flow into transport and urban infrastructure over the coming decades as developing nations aim to raise productivity and deal with rising urbanization. In China alone, more than 200m people are expected to leave their fields and villages for jobs in the city in the next 15 years. Across Asia, the total is about 640m.

Reforms in mainland China have expanded the options available to foreign and domestic investors and issuers in recent years – from “dim sum” bonds (renminbi-denominated, issued outside the mainland) to “panda” bonds (renminbi-denominated, issued by non-Chinese entities but sold in mainland China).

The “Belt and Road” initiative will trigger more issuance and investment. What is more, it could galvanise China’s financial reforms, and encourage policymakers to further open the country’s capital market to global participants.

This is good news. A more liquid and diverse bond market will help improve the allocation of capital, reduce the Chinese economy’s heavy reliance on bank lending, and expand financing options for private companies, whose growth is key to the economic rebalancing that Beijing is trying to achieve.

As a global financial centre on the doorstep of mainland China, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. The city is home to a large, world-class financial and professional-services industry, deep and well established capital markets, a respected regulatory framework and the world’s largest offshore pool of renminbi – key ingredients for the task of connecting the supply of capital to the demand for investment opportunities. Hong Kong’s combination of global connections and understanding of China is unique and will give it an edge in financing the “Belt and Road” initiative.

Local-currency markets in other countries along the “Belt and Road” routes could also get a crucial boost from the initiative.

Emerging Asian local-currency bond markets have developed rapidly. Outstanding volumes of such bonds have soared from $836bn at the end of 2000 to $8.78tn late last year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

“Belt and Road”-related spending will help provide the “push-factor” that will provide much-needed breadth, depth and liquidity to many of Asia’s smaller markets. The effect of the AIIB and other issuers tapping these local markets for “Belt and Road”-related financing will be to widen the local credit universe, attract investor attention globally, and expand corporate access to long-term capital around the region.

A “pull-factor” is also at work here, in the form of Asian cash looking for yield and investment options.

Many of Asia’s economies are still growing well above the global average. In the Asean region – comprising the 10 member nations of the Southeast Asian grouping – the middle class is set to double by 2025. While household, corporate and government debt levels have risen in parts of the region, they mostly remain low compared to those in the developed world. And for an ageing population in many countries in the region, the stable income provided by bonds can be an attractive investment option as retirement approaches.

This convergence of supply and demand could help transform Asian financing markets in the coming years, expanding the role of bond markets in recycling Asian savings into long-term investment in infrastructure for growth – especially if policy makers manage to bring about more cohesion in areas like taxation, foreign exchange regulation and credit ratings.

On the currency front, meanwhile, more and more of the increased trade that “Belt and Road” facilitates will be settled in renminbi. In other words, the initiative will help boost the internationalisation of the Chinese currency.

The “Belt and Road” initiative will help make it easier for trucks, ships and trains to transport goods around large parts of the globe. But it could well have another valuable impact in oiling the wheels of finance.

Gordon French is Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia Pacific, HSBC

中国的“一带一路”基础设施投资计划将有助于促进欧亚大陆大片地区、南亚乃至非洲与中东部分地区的实物商品流动。但不那么显而易见的是，该倡议所涉巨额支出将对金融领域（亚洲及其他地区的货币和债券市场）产生的影响。

2013年首次宣布的“一带一路”倡议，是中国国内经济再平衡及其海外抱负的重要组成部分。该倡议涉及投资数十亿美元，建设连接中国内地与中国以西、以南数十个国家的硬件（铁路、高速公路和港口）。其目的是促进跨境贸易，同时盘活中国的过剩产能。

该倡议对融资这一软件的影响也是巨大的：满足亚洲基础设施需求所需的大量资金将为该地区的资本市场注入新的动力。

未来几年，对规划中及进行中的“一带一路”项目的投资合计或达1.5万亿元人民币（约合2400亿美元）。其中部分资金将来自400亿美元的丝路基金(Silk Road Fund)以及新成立的、规模达1000亿美元的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，简称：亚投行）。

未来几十年，随着发展中国家致力于提高生产率、应对日益加快的城市化进程，它们所需的交通和城市基础设施建设资金将数以万亿计，上面列出的那些资金只能算是其中一小部分。仅在中国一个国家，未来15年就预计会有逾2亿人口离开土地和农村、到城市就业。在整个亚洲，此类人口的总数将达大约6.4亿。

中国内地近年来实施的改革使得国内外投资者和发行机构有了更多的选择，比如“点心债券”（dim sum bonds，在中国内地以外发行的人民币计价债券）和“熊猫债券”（panda bonds，非中国实体在中国内地发行的人民币计价债券）。

“一带一路”倡议将激发更多的债券发行和投资。更重要的是，它可以刺激中国的金融改革进程，鼓励政策制定者进一步向全球参与者开放国内资本市场。

这的确是一个好消息。流动性更强、更多元化的债券市场将有助于改善资本配置，令中国经济不再那么严重依赖于银行贷款，并扩大民营企业的融资渠道，而民企壮大正是北京方面努力要实现的经济再平衡的关键。

作为紧挨中国内地的全球金融中心，香港可以发挥关键作用。香港拥有规模庞大的世界级的金融与专业服务业、深厚而完善的资本市场、受人推崇的监管架构以及全球最大的离岸人民币池，这些都是实现连接资本供给与投资机会需求之任务的关键要素。香港既拥有全球联系又了解中国，这种独特条件使得它在“一带一路”倡议融资方面具备了一项优势。

“一带一路”沿线其他国家的本币市场也能从这项倡议中得到至关重要的提振。

新兴亚洲国家本币债券市场发展迅速。亚洲开发银行(ADB)数据显示，发行在外的此类债券的金额已从2000年底的8360亿美元飙升至去年末的8.78万亿美元。

“一带一路”相关支出将有助于造就“推动因素”，为亚洲许多中小市场提供急需的广度、深度及流动性。亚投行以及其他利用本地市场获取“一带一路”相关融资的发行机构将产生如下影响：拓宽本地信贷市场，吸引全球投资者的注意力，扩大企业在整个地区获取长期资本的渠道。

同样发挥作用的还有“拉动因素”——表现为亚洲资金寻求收益和投资选择。

亚洲许多经济体的经济增速仍远高于全球平均水平。在由10个东南亚国家组成的东盟(Asean)地区，中产阶级的人数到2025年将翻一番。虽然东盟部分地区的家庭、企业及政府的债务水平有所上升，但与发达国家比起来大多仍然较低。同时，对该地区许多国家的日益老龄化的人口来说，随着退休的临近，债券提供的稳定收入称得上一项有吸引力的投资选择。

这种供给与需求的融合有助于在未来几年改造亚洲金融市场，让债券市场在将亚洲储蓄转换为推动增长的基建长期投资方面发挥更大作用——尤其是如果政策制定者能设法在税收、外汇监管和信用评级等领域催生更多凝聚力的话。

同时，在货币方面，“一带一路”倡议推动下发展壮大的贸易将越来越多地以人民币结算。换句话说，该倡议将有助于促进人民币的国际化。

“一带一路”倡议将有助于让货车、船舶和火车在全球大片地区的货物运输变得更加便捷，在推动金融业的车轮滚滚向前方面很可能也会发挥重要作用。

本文作者是汇丰(HSBC)环球银行及资本市场业务亚太区主管

译者/陈隆祥