【英语财经】方星海：中国在汇率政策上沟通不佳 Beijing admits to renminbi message flaws

A top adviser to Chinese president Xi Jinping has conceded poor communication contributed to global market anxiety over China’s falling currency, as he tried to reassure investors that Beijing is not pursuing competitive devaluation.

“Our system is not structured in a way to communicate seamlessly with the markets,” Fang Xinghai, vice-chairman of China’s securities regulator and a member of a key financial policy committee, told an audience in Davos. “You bet we can learn.”

Mr Fang sought to counter concern that China is responding to a domestic economic slowdown by pushing the renminbi weaker. Fears of sharp depreciation have fuelled unprecedented capital outflows from China in recent months and are also blamed for sparking a global equity sell-off.

At the World Economic Forum, Mr Fang said China had “no basis” for seeking a weaker currency, while acknowledging that poor communication from authorities had contributed to the market turmoil this year.

Investors have struggled to interpret China’s exchange rate policy since a surprise move in August to let the renminbi weaken. Many western investors saw the move as the opening salvo in a currency war, while other analysts noted that, far from encouraging depreciation, China has been drawing down its foreign exchange to curb renminbi weakness

Seeking to clarify the country’s policy, Mr Fang said concerns over Chinese stock market volatility were overblown given its weak link to the real economy, but said that currency volatility was more important.

“A depreciation of the currency is not in the interest of China. It’s not good for domestic consumption.”

As European markets struggled to gain stability yesterday morning, most delegates at Davos took the view that markets were more gloomy than was warranted by the fundamentals of the Chinese or global economy.

In a panel at the gathering, there was wide agreement that China’s economy was more healthy than much of the market turmoil this year suggested.

Although the economy was going through a transition towards services and consumption, Christine Lagarde, managing director at the International Monetary Fund, said growth would continue at a robust level because the transitions “are all manageable if the right policies are taken”.

Mr Fang said: “Investment as a share of gross domestic product is shrinking and consumption is increasing?.?.?.?[the move] could have been bigger but it is moving in the right direction.”

He cited growth data released on Tuesday showing that consumption accounted for 52.5 per cent of the economy last year, up from 49 per cent five years ago.

Responding to Mr Fang, Ms Lagarde accepted China’s currency had been “quite stable” against its trading partners but urged Beijing authorities to improve “clarity of communication”.

The transition to a more consumption-based economy “will take a little time, but we believe [China] will deliver. It is a massive undertaking .?.?. but I have no doubt it will happen.”

Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary, shared the sanguine mood about China’s economic prospects.

“I don’t see the situation today being so dramatically different from what we were seeing at the end of last year.”

中国国家主席习近平的一名高级顾问承认，沟通方面的不足加剧了全球市场对人民币贬值的焦虑，他试图让投资者相信，北京方面并未追求竞争性货币贬值。

“从结构角度讲，我们的体制还无法做到与市场无缝沟通，”中国证监会副主席、中央财经领导小组办公室国际经济局局长方星海在达沃斯对听众说，“当然我们可以学习。”

方星海试图化解国际社会的担忧，即中国正在通过推动人民币贬值来应对国内经济放缓。近几月，对人民币大幅贬值的担忧导致了空前规模的资本外流，也被视为是引发全球股市抛售的原因。

在达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)，方星海表示，中国不具备货币贬值的“基础”，同时也承认当局在沟通方面的不足导致了今年的市场动荡。

自去年8月北京方面出人意料地让人民币贬值以来，投资者很难摸透中国的汇率政策。许多西方投资者将此举视为一场货币战争的初期猛袭，但也有分析师指出，中国绝非鼓励贬值，而是一直在动用外汇储备以遏制人民币走弱。

方星海试图澄清中国的政策，他表示，考虑到中国股市与实体经济之间的弱连接关系，对中国股市波动的担忧被夸大了，但他称，汇率波动比较重要。

“人民币贬值不符合中国的利益。不利于推动国内消费。”

欧洲市场周四上午挣扎着稳定下来，参加达沃斯的多数代表认为，从中国或全球经济基本面因素看，市场表现过于悲观。

在一场分组讨论中，参与者的广泛共识是，中国经济比今年大部分市场动荡所显示的更加健康。

虽然中国经济正在向服务与消费转型，但国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，中国经济增长将继续保持强劲水平，因为这些转型“都是可控的——只要采取正确的政策”。

方星海表示：“投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重正在下降，而消费在上升……（步伐）本可以更大，但是在朝着正确方向前进。”

他援引周二公布的增长数据称，消费对中国经济的贡献从5年前的49%升到了去年的52.5%。

在回应方星海时，拉加德也承认，人民币相对于一篮子贸易伙伴的货币“非常稳定”，但她敦促北京当局改善“沟通的清晰度”。

转向在更大程度上以消费为基础的经济“将花一点时间，但我们相信（中国）可以做到。这是一项庞大的事业……但我毫不怀疑它能够实现。”

美国财政部长杰克?卢(Jack Lew)也表达了对中国经济前景的乐观看法。

“我不认为今天的形势与我们在去年底看到的有什么显著不同。”

译者/陈隆祥