【英语财经】石油市场“硝烟”浓 Oil prices are at the mercy of geopolitics

Geopolitics and geoeconomics are pounding down on the oil market, and the price seems to have no place to hide.

The latest barrage comes this week from the re-entry of sanctioned Iranian oil to the world market, triggered by Tehran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement. The lifting of sanctions, originally expected to happen in March or April, was sped up to bolster support for President Rouhani in Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections. As a result, the returning oil will arrive in an already glutted market at a time of maximum seasonal weakness — and when geoeconomic pressures are mounting.

Oil prices are within hailing distance of where they were at the end of 2003, before China’s economic take-off ignited the so-called commodity “supercycle”, which drove up the prices of oil and other commodities. But the China of 10 per cent annual growth is no more. The question that now haunts the oil market is whether what we are seeing is China’s transition from an industrial to a consumer and services-oriented economy, or whether there are deeper structural problems that mean slower growth and more turbulence of the kind recently seen in the Chinese stock market. The significance for the global economy is enormous, and a weaker world economy means less growth in demand for oil at a time when world supplies are swelling.

The stronger dollar is also buffeting the oil price. A decade ago, when the price was surging and the dollar (in which oil prices are denominated) was weakening, economists talked about how oil moves “co-negatively” with the dollar exchange rate — when the dollar goes down oil prices go up. The opposite is happening today.

The oil price collapses in 1986 and 1998 ended when oil exporters got together and reined in production. But geopolitics is working against a quick settlement this time. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries believe that Iran is seeking to become the dominant power in the Middle East. The nuclear agreement not only provides Iran with billions of dollars that had been sitting in international banks because of sanctions, but also enhances Iran’s political position.

The Gulf countries fear this could be further augmented if it leads to some kind of US-Iranian detente. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, says nothing like that will ever happen. But in the face of a resurgent Iran, the last thing that the Gulf countries want to do is cut back their own oil production in order to surrender space for additional Iranian exports into Asia and northwestern Europe.

Today’s weak oil prices are having a devastating impact on the global energy industry and are putting enormous stress on oil-exporting countries, and on some regions in the US, Canada, Scotland and elsewhere. Worldwide, projects are being slowed, postponed or cancelled, which will begin to affect availability of supplies two or three years from now. IHS projections show a $1.8tn reduction between 2015 and 2020. Skilled professionals are leaving the industry and many will never return.

This steady stream of negative developments only reinforces the sentiment that is weighing down on the oil price. One can add to this the fear among some that the global industry could run out of places to store the surplus.

What could reverse the collapse? Later this year, or in 2017, the workings of supply and demand are likely to start to bring the market back into balance. But there will be a great deal of wrenching anguish between now and then. Alternatively, the impact of the price collapse could be so devastating that exporting countries that have said they will not restrain production — including Russia and even Iran — could change their position and come to terms with the Gulf countries, who insist that they will not cut by themselves.

Then there is American shale oil. US oil output is down about half a million barrels from last April — not as much as was expected last year, partly because new offshore supplies from the Gulf of Mexico are offsetting the decline in shale. However, further declines in US shale would certainly serve to mitigate the widespread market pessimism.

Ironically, another counterweight to that pessimism could come from the fact that sanctions have been lifted on Iranian oil. The agreement of the nuclear deal removes a big uncertainty that has been hanging over the market. Now the question is exactly how much additional oil the Iranians will — or can — bring back to the market. Iran’s finance minister has described the current oil price as representing “an all-out war” for market share. But if the actual volumes turn out to be lower than has been anticipated, or if the Iranians are slower in bringing them back, then the market would have further reason to moderate its bleak outlook.

The direction of the oil price and, to a considerable degree, the future of highly volatile global financial markets hang on the outcome.

The writer, vice-chairman of IHS, is author of ‘The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World’

地缘政治和地缘经济正在对石油市场狂轰滥炸，而油价似乎无处可藏。

最新的炮火是在本周落下的。由于德黑兰遵守了核协议，曾经受到制裁的伊朗石油重新进入世界市场。制裁原本预计将于3月或者4月解除，为了在即将开始的伊朗议会选举中增强对伊朗总统哈桑?鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)的支持，这一过程加快了。结果是，伊朗石油将在季节性疲软最严重、且地缘经济压力正在上升的时期，进入一个已经供过于求的市场。

油价已经接近2003年末的水平，那时中国的经济腾飞还未催生拉高石油和其他大宗商品价格的所谓大宗商品“超级周期”。但中国经济年增长10%的情景已成为过去。现在困扰石油市场的问题是，当前我们所看到的情景是中国经济转型——从工业导向型经济向以消费和服务业为导向的经济转变——所致，还是存在更深层的结构性问题，这些问题引起增长放缓，以及更多的市场动荡（类似于中国股市最近经历的）。这个问题对全球经济具有重大意义，而世界经济更为疲弱，就意味着在世界石油供给上升的时候，石油需求的增长会减慢。

美元走强也冲击着油价。10年前，当石油价格飙升，而美元（石油以美元计价）走弱的时候，经济学家说石油和美元汇率的走势是“负相关”的——美元走低时油价上升。如今，情况正好相反。

1986年和1998年的油价大跌因为石油出口国联合起来控制产量而告终。但这一次地缘政治不利于问题的快速解决。沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家认为，伊朗正寻求成为中东地区占据支配地位的强国。核协议不仅为伊朗提供了此前因制裁而冻结在国际银行中的大量资金，还加强了伊朗的政治地位。

海湾国家担心，伊朗地位可能进一步上升，如果核协议使美国和伊朗关系出现某种缓和的话。伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里?哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)表示，像这样的事情永远不会发生。但面对再度崛起的伊朗，海湾国家最不愿意做的事情就是减产，让出空间让额外的伊朗石油得以出口到亚洲和欧洲西北部。

疲软的油价正对全球能源行业产生破坏性影响，也给石油出口国，以及美国、加拿大、苏格兰和其他地区带来了巨大压力。在全球范围内，多个项目被放慢进度、推迟或取消，这将会在两三年后开始影响石油的供应量。IHS的预测显示，2015年到2020年期间相关投资减少1.8万亿美元。高级专业人员正在离开这个行业，许多人永远都不会再干回这一行。

这一稳定的负面发展潮流，只会加剧正在压低油价的市场情绪。除此之外，还有部分人担心，全球石油行业可能会没有地方存储过剩石油。

什么因素可能扭转石油跌势？今年晚些时候或2017年，供需因素的运行可能会开始令市场重返平衡状态。然而，从现在起到那时，市场将会经历许多令人纠结的痛苦。还有一种可能就是，油价崩盘的破坏力之大，可能会令那些原本表示不会减产的石油出口国（包括俄罗斯，甚至伊朗）改变立场，与坚称不会独自减产的海湾国家达成协议。

还有就是美国的页岩油。自去年4月以来，美国石油产量下滑了约50万桶，下滑幅度低于去年的预期，这部分是由于来自墨西哥湾的新增离岸石油供应填补了页岩油产量的下滑。不过，美国页岩油产量的进一步下滑，无疑会起到缓解市场普遍悲观情绪的作用。

讽刺的是，另一个可能会减淡这种悲观情绪的因素是对伊朗石油的制裁解除这件事。核协议的达成，消除了困扰市场的一大不确定性因素。如今，问题变成伊朗到底会（或者到底能够）向市场增加多少石油供应。伊朗财政部长曾称，目前的油价代表着一场争夺市场份额的“全面战争”就要打响。然而如果伊朗实际恢复的石油供应量低于预期，或者如果伊朗石油进入国际市场的脚步比较慢，那么市场的黯淡前景就有进一步理由缓和一下。

油价的走向取决这一结果，跌宕起伏的全球金融市场未来前景如何，很大程度上也要看这一结果。

本文作者是能源咨询公司IHS副董事长，著有《能源重塑世界》(The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World)一书

译者/何黎