【英语财经】中国企业进口商品发票被疑“虚报” Invoice inflation adds to China capital flight

Over-invoicing of Chinese imports ramped up in December as capital flight intensified amid market turmoil and continued depreciation of the renminbi.

Inflating the value of imports from Hong Kong to China is commonly used to move cash out of the country and the method has come back into favour as authorities in China clamp down on official channels of taking cash abroad.

Imports from Hong Kong to China jumped 64 per cent year on year in December, according to China customs data. The same numbers released by Hong Kong customs officials showed only a 0.9 per cent increase, indicating the mainland figures were greatly overvalued. A discrepancy between the two sets of data is normal and Chinese authorities have over the years tolerated it. But the extent of the divergence in December suggests much greater use of one of the few conduits for bringing money out of China.

“It’s a big divergence,” said Raymond Yeung, a senior ANZ economist.

“China has been very vigilant about capital outflow so I think this might end in January.”

Chinese regulators have stepped up informal curbs on capital outflows to relieve pressure on the renminbi. Rapid currency depreciation has triggered turmoil in equity markets.

Starting at the end of December, Chinese regulators suspended the foreign exchange businesses of at least three global banks. In the second half of 2015, cross-border regulators also squeezed the official channels that Chinese companies have commonly used to invest abroad, such as the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor scheme. Still, an estimated $150bn flowed abroad in the last three months of the year.

Mr Yeung noted that mainland authorities, while cracking down on invoice inflation this month, may also seek to stem outflows from China’s free trade zones. The zones, such as the one in Shanghai, are considered to be widening holes in the country’s capital controls.

Hong Kong is the first destination for the cash people and companies take out of the country. Over-invoicing in China usually requires a complicit trading partner in Hong Kong that agrees to inflate the cost of goods before a letter of credit can be issued by a bank. The cluster of companies doing cross-border trade in the region makes Hong Kong an ideal place to conduct the transactions.

The Shanghai Composite Index is down 21.2 per cent since the start of the year. The renminbi has depreciated by 5.9 per cent since August 11 as offshore interest rates have steadily climbed above onshore ones.

“Trade invoicing activities continue to distort China trade data,” a note from Natixis said. “As long as the interest rate differential gap across the border is wider than 100 [basis points], which is likely to be the case in 2016 H1, trade invoicing activities would continue.”

去年12月，中国企业虚增进口商品发票的情况大幅增加。在市场动荡和人民币持续贬值的背景下，资本外逃加剧。

虚报从香港进口至中国内地的商品价值是一种常见的把资金转移到境外的手段。由于中国当局收紧了向外转移资金的官方渠道，这一手段又开始流行。

中国海关数据显示，去年12月，中国内地从香港进口额同比飙升64%。香港海关公布的数据显示，香港对内地出口额同比仅增加0.9%，表明内地的数据被严重高估。两套数据之间出现差距是正常的，中国当局多年来也容忍了这一差距。12月两者差距过大表明，作为少数几种把资金转移出境的渠道之一，虚开贸易发票的情况大幅增加了。

“两者之间差距非常大，”澳新银行(ANZ)的杨宇霆(Raymond Yeung)表示。

“中国一直对资本流出非常警惕，所以我认为，这一局面在1月或许会结束。”

中国监管机构加大了对资本流出的非正式限制，以缓解人民币贬值压力。人民币快速贬值引发了股市动荡。

从去年12月底开始，中国监管机构暂停了至少三家全球性银行的外汇业务。2015年下半年，中国内地和香港的监管机构也收紧了中国企业常用的对外投资官方渠道，比如合格境内机构投资者(QDII)计划。尽管如此，去年第4季度中国大约有1500亿美元资金流向境外。

杨宇霆指出，本月，中国内地当局在打击虚增发票行为的同时，或许也会寻求阻止资本通过几个自贸区流到境外。这些自贸区——比如上海自贸区——被认为是中国资本管制中越开越大的缺口。

香港是中国居民和企业把资金转移到境外的首选目的地。虚增发票通常需要跟香港的一家贸易伙伴串通好，后者同意在银行出具信用证之前虚报商品价值。香港地区有很多从事跨境贸易的公司，使得香港成为这一交易的理想地点。

自今年初以来，上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index)累计下跌21.2%。自去年8月11日以来，人民币汇率已贬值5.9%，因人民币离岸利率稳步攀升，超过了人民币在岸利率。

“虚开贸易发票的做法继续扭曲中国的贸易数据，”法国外贸银行(Natixis)的一份报告表示，“只要中国内地和香港之间的人民币利率之差高于100（个基点）——2016年上半年可能是这种情况——虚开贸易发票的做法就将持续下去。”

译者/何黎