【英语财经】中国“挤压”离岸人民币投机 China spurs volatile offshore renminbi trade

Traders often compare speculation with a balloon; squeeze one part and the air just bulges out elsewhere. The analogy is proving increasingly popular in Hong Kong and other offshore renminbi centres as investors face the effects of China’s efforts to suppress renminbi speculation.

Bulges so far have been spotted in a sudden weakening of the Hong Kong dollar as well in corners of the renminbi’s offshore markets from Taipei to Singapore as intervention by China, direct and indirect, has drained liquidity and created arbitrage opportunities.

The authorities’ aim has been to close the awkward “one currency, two rates” gap between the tightly controlled onshore rate and that available offshore, which had been weakening at a faster pace. The divergence between the two rates implies investors outside China were increasingly betting on further weakening — a gamble that had real onshore repercussions if it spurred further capital flight.

Yesterday the People’s Bank of China opened another front, announcing that banks offshore must for the first time hold renminbi reserves. The move will suck yet more so-called CNH — the currency code for the offshore renminbi — out of circulation in a market that until recently had been steadily growing, reflecting China’s efforts to internationalise its currency.

The rule is the latest step in a series that have begun to prompt questions about the future of the offshore market that is at the forefront of China’s efforts to internationalise its currency.

“The new measure [the reserve requirement] may mark the beginning of a process to reduce the regulatory gaps between the markets, which may have negative impacts on the development of the offshore market,” says Xiangrong Yu at CICC. “As the PBoC begins to face the challenges imposed by the offshore market, the role played by this market in future renminbi internationalisation might be lessened.”

The PBoC’s actions are tightening a market that, materials, financials and technology while representing the vanguard of the renminbi’s internationalisation, was not very large to start with.

CNH deposits held in the main offshore centres of Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore and Seoul totalled Rmb1.4tn ($210bn) towards the end of last year. Broad measures of money supply — M2 — on the mainland put the money in circulation there at Rmb139tn ($21tn).

There are no data for how much renminbi is traded offshore. A paper by the Bank for International Settlements using 2013 data reported about $13bn in the daily spot market. Onshore — known as the CNY market — average trading in dollar-renminbi has reached $26bn a day this year.

“Its been a little tail wagging an enormous dog,” says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, strategist at RBS of the offshore market. “I don’t think developing the CNH market at this stage is China’s priority — keeping CNY from massive volatility is their number one focus.”

The PBoC’s actions have not, however, stopped volatility and speculation bulging out in unexpected areas. Taiwanese banks last week offered retail customers one-off promotional interest rates to attract deposits. Singapore banks also appeared to have raised their rates.

Cathay United Bank, for example, last week was offering up to 5.3 per cent annual interest on three-month time deposits of more than Rmb20,000, compared with its normal rate of 1.6 per cent, in a special deal that a teller said might end at any time.

“Beijing’s squeeze on the short-sellers in Hong Kong is leading to a shortage of liquidity,” says Cheng Cheng-mount, president of AgriBank, another Taiwanese lender. “Some Taiwanese banks are paying up for?.?.?.?deposits and then lending to Hong Kong banks for a profit.”

The Hong Kong dollar, meanwhile, slipped to its weakest level in four years — albeit within the trading band allowed under its dollar peg.

The fall came amid speculation that if China faced economic problems, the city could be forced to reset its peg, although no analysts yet believed the 33-year-old regime was under serious pressure.

Few also believe — yet — that the PBoC intends for now to do much more than scare off offshore renminbi speculators.

“The future of the CNH market is a legitimate concern, but it has huge real economic flows, with a big chunk of trade settled through CNH,” says one investor. “The CNH market is like shadow banking on the mainland — you can’t just shut it down without real consequences.”

Meanwhile, renminbi speculation appears to have moved to the forwards markets. Traders report growing interest in the contracts for future delivery, with renminbi for delivery in 12 months quoted at Rmb6.9 — a weaker rate than yesterday’s Rmb6.589 offshore spot rate. The balloon squeezing goes on.

Additional reporting by Gloria Cheung in Taipei and Jeevan Vasagar in Singapore

交易员们经常拿投机与气球作比：挤压一处，其他地方就会鼓起来。这个类比在香港及其他离岸人民币中心应该会越来越深入人心，因为这些地方的投资者要面对中国打击人民币投机活动所带来的影响。

目前来说，气球上鼓涨的部分已经可见于港元的突然走弱、以及从台北到新加坡等人民币离岸市场，因为中国的直接和间接干预抽走了流动性、造就了套利机会。

中国当局的目标是消除“一币两率”的尴尬局面，即受到严格管控的在岸汇率与离岸汇率（后者一直在以较快步伐下跌）之间存在价差的局面。两种汇率的背离，说明境外投资者越来越多地押注于人民币进一步贬值——这场赌博若导致更多资本外逃，会在中国国内造成切实影响。

周一，中国央行开辟了一条新战线，首次宣布境外银行须缴存人民币存款准备金。此举将导致更多的离岸人民币(CNH)退出流通。直到最近，离岸人民币市场一直在稳步增长，反映出中国推进人民币国际化的努力。

这项新规只是一系列举措中的最新一步，由于这一系列举措，人们开始对在人民币国际化进程中处于中心位置的离岸市场的前景产生疑问。

“新措施（对离岸人民币存款征收存款准备金）或许标志着当局开始着手缩小两个市场间的监管差距，这可能会对离岸市场的发展造成负面影响，”中金公司(CICC)的余向荣说，“随着中国央行开始应对离岸市场带来的挑战，该市场在未来人民币国际化进程中发挥的作用可能会降低。”

中国央行的举措，正在一个虽充当人民币国际化先锋、但实际规模并不大的市场产生紧缩作用。

去年底，香港、台北、新加坡和首尔这四个主要人民币离岸金融中心的人民币存款总计为1.448万亿元人民币（合2100亿美元）。按照中国内地的广义货币供应量(M2)，内地流通的人民币为139.23万亿元人民币（合21.3万亿美元）。

说到目前离岸人民币的交易量有多大，我们找不到这方面的数据。国际清算银行(BIS)一篇论文曾引用2013年的数据称，该即期市场的日交易量约为130亿美元。今年以来，在岸人民币(CYN)兑美元交易的日均交易量已达260亿美元。

“这就像一条小尾巴在摇动一条大狗，”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)策略师曼苏尔?莫希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)讲到离岸人民币市场时说，“我不认为现阶段发展离岸人民币市场是中国优先考虑的事情——防止在岸人民币出现巨幅波动才是他们的首要关注点。”

然而，中国央行的举措并未阻止波动和投机出现在意想不到的地方。台湾的银行上周为零售客户提供了一次性的优惠利率以吸引存款。新加坡银行似乎也提高了利率。

例如，国泰世华银行(Cathay United Bank)上周为2万元人民币以上金额的3月期存款提供最高5.3%的年利率，相比之下，该行正常的利率仅为1.6%。一名银行柜员称，这一特别利率可能随时结束。

“北京在香港打压卖空者正导致流动性短缺，“另一家台湾银行AgriBank的行长Cheng Cheng-mount说，“一些台湾银行正在贴钱吸储，然后借给香港银行获利。”

与此同时，港元已跌至4年来的最低水平——尽管还处于盯住美元的汇率政策允许的交易区间内。

港元贬值的背景是，投资者纷纷猜测如果中国面临经济困难，香港可能会被迫改革联系汇率制，虽然目前没有分析师认为这项实施了33年的制度正承受严重压力。

同样也没有——至少现在还没有——多少人认为，中国央行眼下想做的不止是吓跑离岸人民币投机者。

“离岸人民币市场的未来确实值得担忧，但这个市场涉及到大量的实体经济流动，有很大一部分贸易通过离岸人民币结算。”一位投资者说，“离岸人民币市场就像内地的影子银行——你不能不计后果地将其关闭。”

与此同时，人民币投机似乎已转至远期市场。交易员称，投资者对远期交割合同的兴趣上升，12个月美元兑人民币远期合约报1美元兑6.9元人民币——比周一的1美元兑6.589元人民币的离岸人民币即期汇率还低。对气球的挤压还在继续。

Gloria Cheung台北、吉万?瓦萨加尔(Jeevan Vasagar)新加坡补充报道

译者/陈隆祥