【英语财经】美联储决定维持利率不变 Fed holds fire on historic rate rise

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at record lows as concern about an increasingly brittle global economy overshadowed evidence of a resilient US recovery.

The US central bank maintained its 0 to 0.25 per cent target range for the federal funds rate, warning that recent developments in the global economy and markets may “restrain economic activity somewhat” as well as pushing down inflation in the near term.

The move comes despite calls from central banks in several emerging markets for the Fed to bring an end to the endless speculation about its first increase since before the financial crisis.

On the other side of the argument, both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have been calling for the Fed to hold fire, in part because of fears over the impact a rise could have on fragile emerging markets.

Interest rate forecasts from policy- makers suggested most still expect that the first increase in short-term rates will happen this year, but three officials now expect the central bank to hold fire until 2016, and one does not predict a move until 2017.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision suggests it wants more time to digest the economic impact of August’s violent moves in financial markets, as well as the extent of the slowdown in many emerging economies. It perpetuates the extended period of uncertainty in markets surrounding the timing of the Fed’s first rise, as the central bank gauges when it can finally follow through with its long-anticipated tightening of policy.

The Fed only has two more meetings left this year — in October and December — if it is to meet chair Janet Yellen’s previous guidance that a rise is likely in 2015. One voter — Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker — voted for a quarter-point rise at yesterday’s meeting.

The decision to hold rates at zero to a quarter point suggests Fed policymakers remain fearful of crushing a recovery that they have gone to huge lengths to nurture, given the fierce headwinds from overseas, including a 15 per cent rise in the trade weighted dollar in the past year, volatile financial markets, weakening emerging market growth, and signs of a sharp slowdown in China’s economy.

In its statement, the Fed said: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

The committee reiterated that it would move rates when it had seen “some further improvement” in the labour market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to the 2 per cent objective in the medium term.

Projections released with the statement showed that some 13 of Fed policymakers expect a rate rise in 2015, down from 15 previously. Three others are looking for firming to occur in 2016, and one further out in 2017.

Reflecting America’s resilient domestic economy, projected unemployment numbers were stronger across the forecast, with the median forecast rate tipped to fall below 5 per cent to 4.8 per cent in 2016 and 2017. Policymakers’ median estimate for the longer-run jobless rate was 4.9 per cent, down from 5 per cent previously.

美联储(Federal Reserve)将利率维持在创纪录低点。政策制定者对于全球经济日益脆弱的忧虑，压倒了美国经济复苏强韧的证据。

这家美国央行将联邦基金利率维持在0到0.25%的目标区间，并警告称，全球经济和市场最近的动态可能“对经济活动有所抑制”，并在短期内压低通胀。

此前一些新兴市场的央行呼吁美联储按原定计划尽快加息，终结有关其何时进行自金融危机之前上次加息以来的首次加息的无休止猜测。

在这场争论的另一边，国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)都呼吁美联储暂缓加息，部分原因是担心加息对脆弱的新兴市场可能产生的影响。

政策制定者们发布的利率预测似乎表明，多数人仍预期短期利率的首次上调将在今年发生，但有三名官员现在预期美联储在2016年之前不会动手，还有一名官员甚至预计，美联储将一直等到2017年才开始加息。

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的决定似乎表明，它希望有更多时间来评估8月金融市场剧烈动荡对经济产生的影响，以及许多新兴经济体经济放缓的严重性。在美联储斟酌其何时能够进行各方预期已久的政策收紧之际，围绕其首次加息时机的长时间不确定性继续困扰着市场。

美联储今年只剩下10月和12月两次会议——如果它要兑现其主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)之前发布的年内很可能加息的指引。一名投票者——里士满联邦储备银行行长杰弗里?莱克尔(Jeffrey Lacker)——在昨日会议上投票支持立即加息25个基点。

将利率维持在0到0.25%的决定似乎表明，美联储的政策制定者仍然担心破坏他们费尽心思培育的经济复苏，原因是他们面对海外的强劲逆风，包括贸易加权的美元汇率在过去一年上升15%，动荡的金融市场，不断趋弱的新兴市场增长，以及中国经济大幅放缓的迹象。

美联储在其声明中表示：“最近的全球经济和金融动态可能对经济活动有所抑制，并且很可能在短期内对通胀形成进一步下行压力。”

联邦公开市场委员会重申，当它看到美国劳动力市场出现“一些进一步好转”，并且有合理信心认为通胀将在中期再度趋近2%的目标时，它将调整利率。

声明中发布的预测显示，美联储的13名政策制定者预期2015年加息，少于此前的15人。另有3人预期2016年开始加息，还有一人预计美联储会等到2017年。

反映美国国内经济韧性的是，各政策制定者预计的失业率都好于上一次，预测中值是2016年和2017年美国失业率将跌破5%，至4.8%。政策制定者们对较长期失业率的预测中值是4.9%，低于此前的5%。

译者/和风