【英语财经】美联储加息将伤及日本进口商 Interest rate rise: Japan prospect of weaker yen leaves sour taste

Dishes which use soyabeans, such as natto, are affected by the rate rise as Japan imports from the US

Kinako — a sweet yellow flour used in desserts — is as quintessentially Japanese as food ingredients come, but even this niche product is not immune to economic ripples emanating from the US Federal Reserve.

Yoshio Ogawa, president of 103-year-old Ogawa Industries, makes most of his kinako using soyabeans imported from the US. The dollar exchange rate is crucial to his profitability.

With the yen already trading at about Y124 to the dollar, down more than 50 per cent in the two-and-a-half years since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power, importers such as Mr Ogawa can ill-afford more yen weakness.

“If we can pass the price rises on then it is fine but the question is whether consumers keep buying,” he says.

Inflation in Japan is still running close to zero, so even if the Fed does not tighten policy in September, at some point there will be a sharp divergence between US and Japanese interest rates.

Higher US rates make it relatively more attractive to hold dollars. But while a weaker yen hurts importers such as Mr Ogawa by pushing up the price of foreign foodstuffs and energy, it also swells profits at big exporters such as Toyota.

The export boost is a stimulus, encouraging Japan’s manufacturers to raise production and investment at home, although big companies have been slow to accept yen weakness is here to stay.

So far the spur to Japanese growth has not been enough to drive up wages. Companies such as Ogawa Industries are left in a bind, because the prices of their inputs have risen but the incomes of their customers have not.

That has changed yen politics.

Whereas yen weakness got a warm welcome in the early days of Abenomics in 2013, politicians are now much warier, creating a tricky environment for the Bank of Japan to navigate.

Mr Ogawa is doing what he can to prepare for a stronger dollar. But he points out that his room for manoeuvre is limited because customers want non-genetically modified soya. That restricts his choice of suppliers.

“One choice is to use more domestic beans,” he says, adding that Japanese produce, however, is not cheap.

使用大豆的餐品（例如纳豆）将受到美国加息的影响，因为日本从美国进口大豆

甜点中使用的黄色的甜甜的粉末“Kinako”，是一种极具日本特色的食品原料，但即便是这种利基产品，也不免要受到美联储(Fed)造成的经济波动的影响。

Ogawa Industries是一家有103年历史的日本企业，它生产的“Kinako”基本上都是用从美国进口的大豆制成的。美元汇率对该公司的利润率有着至关重要的影响。

安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)再次出任日本首相至今已有两年半时间，日元兑美元汇率在这段时间里下跌了50%以上，目前为1美元兑124日元左右。像Ogawa这样的进口商可能难以承受日元进一步走弱。

Ogawa的社长Yoshio Ogawa说：“如果我们能把价格上涨转嫁出去，那倒还好，可问题是消费者是否还会买。”

日本通胀率目前仍接近零，因此，即便美联储没有在9月收紧货币政策，美国和日本的利率也终有一天会出现巨大分化。

美国加息让持有美元变得相对更具吸引力。然而，尽管日元贬值推高了外国食品和能源的价格、令Ogawa这样的进口商受损，但它也提振了丰田(Toyota)等大型出口商的利润。

出口增加是一种刺激，它鼓励日本制造商扩大国内生产和投资，尽管日本大企业迟迟未认可日元的弱势将持续下去的观点。

迄今为止，给日本增长带来的提振不足以推升薪资。Ogawa这样的企业正陷入困境，因为它们的投入成本上涨了、顾客的收入却没涨。

这改变了日元政治学。

2013年安倍经济学(Abenomics)实施初期，日元贬值曾受到热烈欢迎，如今政治人士则变得警惕多了，这为日本央行(Bank of Japan)驾驭现状制造了一个棘手的环境。

Yoshio Ogawa正尽其所能为美元升值做准备。但他指出，他的回旋余地有限，因为顾客们想要非转基因大豆。这对他选择供应商造成了限制。

他说，“一种选择是更多地使用国内的豆子”，但日本的豆子可不便宜。

译者/梁艳裳