【英语财经】美联储加息，加还是不加？ Fed guidance splits markets on rate rise and poses test for Yellen’s leadership

The Federal Reserve is heading into this week’s pivotal interest rate-setting meeting with financial markets and Wall Street analysts deeply split over whether it will tighten monetary policy following weeks of mixed signals from the central bank.

Conflicting messages from a divided body of Fed officials mean futures traders are betting against the possibility of a rate increase, while nearly half of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Fed to pull the trigger next week. Other analysts think the US central bank could hold steady until 2016.

Torsten Sl?k, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, said he was picking up “frustration and confusion” among investors. The uncertainty presents Fed chair Janet Yellenwith a leadership test as she presides over a hugely contentious decision on Thursday, amid clashing data and heavy lobbying from across the globe.

If the Fed skips a September rise, it would create a communications challenge for Ms Yellen, who has advocated a rate increase in 2015 and would need to convince traders the Fed still meant business about lifting rates.

But the Fed’s failure to lay the groundwork for a move this week means that if it defies investors and lifts rates, there is a risk of a sharp reaction after a period of high volatility, investors said.

Some fret that a premature rise could imperil the US recovery. “We’re at a delicate point,” said Anne Richards, the investment chief of Aberdeen Asset Management. “I used to think that we’d be fine [if the Fed lifted interest rates] but I’m starting to worry about what a rate rise will do to the US economy.”

The futures market put odds of just

28 per cent on an imminent increase — even after Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice-chairman, indicated in August that a rate rise was on the table in September.

The two-year Treasury yield hit a four-year high of 0.76 per cent, suggesting some investors believe an increase may yet be on the horizon. Falling commodity prices, inflation expectations and the rise in the dollar were all given as possible reasons for the Fed to sit tight. Futures traders put a 41 per cent chance of no move this year.

Hanging over the Fed’s talks is lobbying from around the world on how it should set policy. Global institutions including the International Monetary Fund

and World Bank

are urging it to hold fire given the possible risks.

美联储(Fed)本周即将召开至关重要的利率制定会议之际，对于美联储是否会收紧货币政策，金融市场和华尔街的分析师出现了极大分歧，近几周美联储传递出不合拍的信号。

意见分歧的美联储官员传递出相互矛盾的信号意味着，期货交易员们把赌注押在了加息可能性较小的一方，而在彭博(Bloomberg)调查的经济学家中，近半数人预计美联储会在本周开始加息。其他分析师则认为，美联储可能会将现状维持到2016年。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)首席国际经济学家托尔斯滕?斯洛克(Torsten Sl?k)表示，他在投资者中看到了越来越多的“不满和迷茫”。对于美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)来说，在各种数据相互冲突、全球各方大举游说的大背景下，这种不确定性令其面临领导力考验，本周四她将拍板作出一个极有争议的决定拍板。

如果美联储9月份不加息，那将给耶伦带来“说话算不算数”的挑战。此前一直为2015年加息吹风的耶伦将有必要说服交易员：美联储对加息仍是认真的。

然而，投资者表示，美联储未能为本周的举措做好准备意味着，在一阵高度动荡时期之后，如果美联储无视投资者意愿，一意孤行坚持加息，市场可能出现激烈反应。

部分人担心，过早加息可能危及美国的复苏。英国安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)首席投资官安妮?理查兹(Anne Richards)表示：“我们处于一个微妙时刻。过去，我一直认为（美联储加息）我们不会有什么问题。然而如今，我开始担心加息会对美国经济产生什么影响。”

即使是在8月美联储副主席斯坦利?费希尔(Stanley Fischer)暗示9月加息不能排除之后，期货市场仍估计美联储很快加息的几率仅为28%。

两年期国债收益率触及0.76%的四年来高点，表明一些投资者认为加息仍可能在可以预见的将来进行。大宗商品价格和通胀预期下降，而美元走高，都被列为美联储按兵不动的理由。期货交易员估计美联储年内不会动手的几率是41%。

悬在美联储的讨论之上的，是全世界对于美联储该如何设定政策的游说。国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)等全球机构都敦促美联储考虑各项潜在风险，暂缓行动。

译者/何黎