【英语财经】美联储加息将加剧中国资本外流 Interest rate rise: China investors on edge amid outflow risk

After a summer of turmoil in the stock and foreign exchange markets, China’s financial and business communities are on edge.

Capital outflows and a slowing economy add to the unease. The US Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate rise gives investors and companies another headwind to contend with.

The People’s Bank of China’s decision in mid-August to let the renminbi depreciate caught the market by surprise, but among the most plausible theories to explain the move is that it was designed to pre-empt the Fed’s rate rise.

Downward pressure on the renminbi had been building for months. If the central bank had waited until after the Fed raised rates to loosen its grip on the renminbi and allow depreciation, the drop would probably have been more disorderly and larger than the 3 per cent fall that occurred.

“Things are complicated now. I don’t think the market is focused mainly on the Fed, but it’s just one more thing to worry about,” said a foreign exchange trader at a midsized bank in Shanghai.

Chinese officials maintain that the direct impact of rate rises on the country’s economy will be relatively minor.

“The Federal Reserve entering a rate rise cycle will have a limited influence on China’s economy,” wrote Zhang Ming of the Chinese Academy of Social Science’s Institute on World Economics and Politics, a think-tank that advises the government, in People’s Daily, the Communist party mouthpiece, in August.

“Downward pressure on the Chinese economy comes mainly from the influence of domestic factors like industrial overcapacity, an inventory overhang in real estate and declining export competitiveness.”

But some economists say that tightening US monetary policy could exacerbate a surge in capital outflows from China, which may have risen to $150bn in August alone, according to Jianguang Shen, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong. According to data from Citigroup, such outflows already totalled more than $500bn for the year to June.

A strong dollar, mixed with expectations of a depreciating renminbi, tends to entice those who hold renminbi-denominated assets to switch them into dollars.

If outflows accelerate and Chinese growth continues to slow, it would pose a dilemma for policymakers. The central bank has already cut interest rates four times since November and some economists are calling for further easing to lower companies’ funding costs and battle deflation.

Additional reporting by James Kynge

经历了一个股市汇市动荡之夏后，中国金融界和工商界的心情有些不安。

资本外流和经济放缓加剧了这种不安。美联储(Fed)即将进行的加息使得投资者和企业不得不应对另一场逆风。

8月中旬中国央行让人民币贬值的决定让市场备感意外，但人们对中国央行此举给出的听上去很有道理的一个解释是，它是要抢在美联储加息之前采取行动。

人民币下行压力已累积数月。如果中国央行等到美联储加息后才放松控制、允许人民币贬值，那么这种贬值很可能更为无序，跌幅也会超过当时出现的3%的跌幅。

上海一家中等规模银行的一名外汇交易员表示：“现在情况复杂。我不认为市场主要盯着美联储，它只不过是又一件令人担忧的事情。”

中国官员坚称，美联储加息对中国经济的直接影响将相对较小。

今年8月，中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所的张明在中共机关报《人民日报》上撰文指出：“美联储进入加息周期对中国经济影响有限。”该研究所是一家为中国政府提供咨询的智库。

“中国经济下行压力主要来自国内因素的影响，比如工业产能过剩、房地产库存积压以及出口竞争力持续下降。”

但一些经济学家表示，美国收紧货币政策可能会使资本加速流出中国。瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)驻香港首席亚洲经济学家沈建光表示，仅今年8月一个月中国的资本外流额可能就已达1500亿美元。花旗集团(Citigroup)数据显示，在截止今年6月的一年里，中国资本外流总额已超过5000亿美元。

坚挺的美元再加上人民币贬值预期，往往会诱使持有人民币计价资产的人将之换为美元计价资产。

如果资本外流加速、而中国经济增长继续放缓，政策制定者将面临两难局面。自去年11月以来，中国央行已4次降息，一些经济学家正呼吁进一步放松货币政策以降低企业融资成本和对抗通缩。

金奇(James Kynge)补充报道

译者/邹策