【英语财经】中国经济放缓重创赞比亚 Zambia’s currency hit as copper-rich producer suffers from ...

Zambia was one of Africa’s main beneficiaries when China’s economy was expanding at full tilt. With copper its key export, China’s thirst for minerals helped the southern African nation enjoy a decade of economic boom.

But as concern over China’s slowdown triggers emerging market turbulence, Zambia is at the centre of a storm.

Its currency, the kwacha, has plummeted to all-time lows against the dollar in recent days, and has depreciated more than 30 per cent since January, making it the world’s worst performer after the Belarus rouble, says Bloomberg.

Zambia’s woes deepened on Monday when Glencore said it was suspending production at its Mopani mine for 18 months. Chinese-owned Luanshya Copper Mines

has also said it will suspend operations and cut jobs at its Baluba mine in Zambia because of the copper price and a power crisis.

The situation highlights the vulnerability of Africa’s resource-dependent nations to the fortunes of China. For Zambia, the turbulence coincides with power shortages and political uncertainty ahead of elections next year, the country’s second poll in 18 months.

“It’s a very volatile environment?.?.?.?it reflects several things coming together,” says Tobias Rasmussen, the IMF’s representative in the country.

Zambia is Africa’s second-biggest copper producer and depends on the metal for about 70 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings and 25-30 per cent of government revenue.

China accounts for more than 40 per cent of the metal’s global consumption. Copper prices have fallen 18 per cent this year, sliding to a six-year low of less than $5,000 a tonne last month on fears that China’s economy could slow further. The London-based Fathom Consultancy ranked Zambia top of an index of African nations most exposed to China’s slowdown.

In 2012, Zambian exports to China amounted to 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product, while Chinese foreign direct investment was 7.5 per cent of GDP, it said.

Mining companies have also been hit by policy uncertainty after the government more than doubled royalties for opencast mines, before reducing them following industry pressure.

The Patriotic Front party, in office since 2011, wooed voters by pledging to distribute the country’s mineral wealth more equitably, raise wages and improve infrastructure, but now it is struggling to balance the books.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Zambia’s credit rating in July to B, saying it expected the 2015 fiscal deficit to widen to about 10 per cent of GDP compared with its previous estimate of 6 per cent.

The government has pledged to tighten its belt, but the kwacha’s weakness puts pressure on a widening current account deficit, raises import costs and risks feeding through into inflation. It also increases the cost of the government’s debt service obligations in local terms. In July, Zambia launched a $1.25bn bond, its third such issuance since late 2012.

Lusaka turned to the IMF last year, but the death of President Michael Sata in October and subsequent presidential election meant discussions stalled. As the country prepares for general elections next year, there are concerns about whether the government will meet its promises of fiscal discipline.

Edgar Lungu, the president, tried to address some of the concerns last week, saying he had directed government institutions to “rationalise and minimise in all areas that engender foreign exchange costs”. He also spoke of the need to reduce the country’s dependence on copper, a tough task that China’s slowdown has thrust to the fore for many resource-rich African nations.

Additional reporting by Henry Sanderson in London

在中国经济全速扩张时，赞比亚曾是非洲主要受益者之一。铜是赞比亚的重要出口商品，因此，中国对矿产的强劲需求曾帮助这个南非国家享受了10年的经济繁荣。

但随着对中国经济放缓的担忧引发新兴市场动荡，赞比亚正处于一场风暴的中心。

根据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据，最近几天，赞比亚货币“克瓦查”兑美元汇率下挫至空前低点，自今年1月以来，已累计贬值逾30%，这令克瓦查成为继白俄罗斯卢布之后、全球表现第二差的货币。

周一，赞比亚的困境加剧，嘉能可(Glencore)在当天表示，其在赞比亚的Mopani铜矿将停产18个月。中资所有的卢安夏铜矿(Luanshya Copper Mineshas)也表示，由于铜价重挫和电力供应危机，将暂停赞比亚Baluba铜矿作业并裁员。

这一形势突显出依赖自然资源的非洲国家容易受到中国形势的影响。对于赞比亚而言，其在市场动荡的同时还面临着电力供应短缺以及明年大选之前的政治不确定性，这将是该国18个月来的第二次选举。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在赞比亚的代表托宾?拉斯穆森(Tobias Rasmussen)表示：“形势非常动荡……好几件事同时发生。”

赞比亚是非洲第二大铜生产国，该国外汇收入的约70%以及政府税收的25%至30%都依赖铜。

中国占全球铜消费量的40%以上。铜价今年已下跌18%，上月降至每吨不到5000美元的6年低点，因市场担心，中国经济可能进一步放缓。位于伦敦的Fathom Consultancy将赞比亚列为最容易受到中国经济放缓影响的非洲国家。

赞比亚表示，2012年，赞比亚对华出口占其国内生产总值(GDP)的4.3%，来自中国的外国直接投资占其GDP的7.5%。

矿业公司也受到政策不确定性的困扰，赞比亚政府曾大幅上调露天矿场的特许权使用费，之后在行业压力下又下调了费率。

2001年上台的赞比亚执政党爱国阵线(Patriotic Front party)为了争取选民的支持，承诺更公平分配该国的矿业财富、提高工资水平以及改善基础设施，但如今，该党正难以保持收支平衡。



今年7月，标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)将赞比亚的信用评级下调至B，并表示预计该国2015年的财政赤字将扩大至占GDP的10%左右，之前的估计为6%。

赞比亚政府承诺将紧缩开支，但克瓦查贬值给不断扩大的经常账户赤字构成压力、提高了进口成本并可能影响到通胀。这还增加了以本币计算的政府偿债义务的成本。今年7月，赞比亚发行了一笔12.5亿美元的债券，为自2012年末以来第三次发行此类债券。

去年，赞比亚政府向IMF求助，但该国总统迈克尔?萨塔(Michael Sata)去年10月的逝世以及随后的总统大选使得相关讨论毫无进展。在该国筹备明年大选之际，外界担心，该国政府是否将履行其遵守财政纪律的承诺。

赞比亚现任总统埃德加?伦古(Edgar Lungu)上周试图化解一些担忧，他表示，已命令政府机构“在所有产生外汇成本的领域进行优化和最小化”。他还谈到了降低对铜的依赖的必要性，这将是一项艰巨的任务——对于很多资源丰富的非洲国家而言，中国经济放缓的影响已显现出来。

孙德生(Henry Sanderson)伦敦补充报道

译者/梁艳裳