【英语财经】印尼为美联储加息做好准备 Interest rate rise: Indonesia prepares to withstand ripples

The 'ojek sepeda' bicycle taxis wait for customers in Jakarta

It is rush hour on a warm Friday evening but Faizal Ali, 57, is sitting idle on the pavement in central Jakarta with no customers for his ojek, or motorcycle taxi.

Mr Ali’s main gripes are slowing growth and the rise in fuel prices since President Joko Widodo, widely known at Jokowi, swept to power in last year’s election and slashed expensive subsidies. The driver says he now spends Rs40,000 ($2.90) a day on fuel, up from Rs25,000 last year.

“The ojek passengers are less than before,” he says. “At first, I thought Jokowi had the right goals and he made the right promises to people, but the reality is different — many people are unemployed and food prices are rising.”

While Mr Ali may be unhappy, economists have lauded the controversial subsidy cuts aimed at shoring up state finances, efforts to improve Indonesia’s external balances and the central bank’s ban on the use of foreign currencies for domestic transactions, designed to control onshore demand for US dollars.

Compared with the so-called “taper tantrum” two years ago, when the decisions of the US Federal Reserve last sent shockwaves through emerging markets, the Indonesian economy is said to be better prepared for an increase in US rates.

Yet, with economic growth dropping below 5 per cent year-on-year in the first two quarters, inflation ticking up and a current account deficit that makes Indonesia heavily reliant on foreign capital for funding, the country is still among the most “fragile” of emerging markets.

Analysts at Nomura say foreign ownership of rupiah-denominated bonds, which was negligible in the early 2000s, had risen to as much as 30 per cent of the total market at the beginning of this year.

Uncertainty over US monetary policy, along with the plunge in China’s equity markets, has triggered a sharp deterioration in the Indonesian rupiah. The currency is down 11 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

Mr Ali grumbles that his everyday purchases have become more expensive. Economists say markets have internalised the effects of a US rate rise but any further depreciation will make imported inputs yet more expensive — reducing the purchasing power of Mr Ali and of his customers.

“Given the fact that this is happening at a time of slowing growth, for the person in Indonesia what really matters is income growth and purchasing power,” says Atsi Sheth, at Moody’s. “Ordinarily you would expect monetary policy to ease but because of the external uncertainty and vulnerability, monetary policy is constrained.”

Once the US Federal Reserve takes action, Ms Sheth says “the uncertainty about the timing will be removed” and the focus will shift to the outlook for global growth next year.

Sarvesh Suri, country manager for the International Finance Corporation, the World Bank’s private sector lending arm, said Mr Widodo must position Indonesia as a market on the brink of significant policy change to bolster flagging sentiment among foreign investors.

“If it is a country which is reforming in a much bigger way then?.?.?.?Indonesia will be one of the countries which won’t suffer that much,” he said.

这是一个温暖周五晚上的交通高峰时段，57岁的法伊扎尔?阿里(Faizal Ali)却闲坐在雅加达中心区域的人行道边，没有一个顾客来乘坐他的摩的。

阿里的主要不满是，自人称“佐科威”(Jokowi)的佐科?维多多(Joko Widodo)在去年印尼总统选举中胜出上台、并大幅削减高额补贴以来，经济增长放缓了，燃料价格也上涨了。这名司机说，现在他每天的油钱是4万印尼盾（合2.9美元），高于去年的2.5万印尼盾。

“坐摩的的人比以前少了，”他说，“一开始我以为，佐科威设定了正确的目标、向人民做出了正确的承诺，但现实却是另一回事——许多人没工作，食品价格在上涨。”

尽管阿里或许不高兴，经济学家们却对富有争议的补贴削减（旨在巩固国家财政）、改善印尼对外收支平衡的努力、以及印尼央行禁止在国内交易中使用外币（旨在控制境内美元需求）的做法持赞扬态度。

跟两年前的所谓“缩减恐慌”（taper tantrum，那是上一回美联储(Fed)的决定在所有新兴市场引发冲击波的时刻）相比，印尼经济据称已对美国加息做了更充分的准备。

不过，由于头两个季度经济同比增幅降到5%以下，通胀率呈上升趋势，加上经常账户赤字使得印尼严重依赖外资，该国仍身处最“脆弱”新兴市场经济体之列。

野村(Nomura)的分析师表示，外资持有的印尼盾计价债券，在本世纪初还根本没有多少，在今年初已上升至市场总额的30%。

美国货币政策的不确定性，加上中国股市大跌，已导致印尼盾大幅贬值。自今年以来，印尼盾对美元累计下跌了11%。

阿里抱怨说，他的日常购物花销变得越来越高。经济学家表示，市场已消化了美联储加息的影响，但印尼盾若再出现进一步贬值，进口的投入要素将变得更加昂贵，阿里和他顾客的购买力将变得更弱。

穆迪(Moody's)的阿特西?谢斯(Atsi Sheth)表示：“鉴于这一切发生在经济增长放缓时期，对印尼人民来说，真正重要的是收入增长和购买力。通常情况下，你会指望放松货币政策，但由于外部不确定性和脆弱性，货币政策受到了约束。”

谢斯表示，一旦美联储采取行动，“关于加息时机选择的不确定性即可消除”，人们的关注重点将转移到明年全球经济增长前景上。

国际金融公司(International Finance Corporation)印尼区经理萨尔韦什?苏里(Sarvesh Suri)表示，维多多必须将印尼定位成一个即将实施重大政策调整的市场，以提振外国投资者低迷的情绪。国际金融公司是世界银行(World Bank)旗下的私营部门贷款机构。

苏里说：“如果印尼是一个正在以大得多的力度实施改革的国家……那么它将成为受冲击不那么大的国家之一。”

译者/何黎