【英语财经】分析：G20积极描绘经济前景 G20 forecast belies economic gloom

Finance ministers from the G20 nations have insisted the global economy has nothing to fear from a China slowdown as they tried to dispel the pall of gloom that has been cast by sagging growth and market turmoil.

At the end of a two-day meeting in Turkey the representatives, accounting for 85 per cent of the world’s output, expressed confidence in the economic forecast in spite of evidence that global growth is falling short of expectations.

European ministers showed firm support for Beijing, which convinced many G20 officials that its devaluation and new currency management arrangements constituted a step towards a more market-determined exchange rate rather than a ploy to boost exports.

Wolfgang Sch?uble, German finance minister, said the G20 agreed there was no reason to fret over slower Chinese growth, while Pierre Moscovici, the EU Commissioner for economic affairs, praised “the absolute determination of [Chinese] authorities to sustain growth”.

US support was more tempered. Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary, pressed Lou Jiwei, his Chinese counterpart, for a signal China would allow market pressures to drive the renminbi up as well as down.

So far, economists have struck a sanguine tone about the impact of China’s malaise on US growth — one of the global economy’s few bright spots — ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting on whether to raise record low interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Global growth forecasts have been falling, with the International Monetary Fund expected to cut its outlook in its autumn update, but direct linkages between China and the US — the world’s two biggest economies — are narrow.

This suggests a sharp Chinese downturn could leave the US economy less waterlogged than many of its partners.

New Goldman Sachs forecasts on

Friday suggested that the China-induced turmoil so far — including the recent financial volatility — might reduce US growth by around 0.2 of a percentage point over the next year, a fairly modest effect. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, argues the market ruckus has been overblown.

“People are making too much of the China slowdown. Financial and trade links directly from China to the US are quite limited,” Mr Posen added.

The US has a relatively closed economy with exports clocking in at just 13 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with a 70 per cent contribution from consumer spending, making it in theory one of the least vulnerable big economies to a Chinese breakdown.

Just 7 per cent of US exports go to the People’s Republic. Deutsche Bank research last week suggested a 1 per cent decline in Chinese growth would cut US growth by just 0.1 of a percentage point.

While China has been a growth market for multinationals such as Apple, members of the S&P 500 overall derive only 2 per cent of their revenue directly from China, according to Goldman. Big US banks’ direct exposure to China’s closed financial system is also very modest, at around 3 per cent of assets.

Set against this, however, are the broader ripple effects from China’s woes. Research to be published by Oxford Economics this week will argue that the key risk to the US from a big Chinese downturn is via its indirect impact on other emerging markets, which could trigger financial stress and a more generalised trade slowdown. While US exports directly to China may be modest, emerging markets account for closer to half of US merchandise exports, it points out.

The Chinese authorities’ interventions in financial markets have also raised questions about just how skilled its economic policy makers are and whether the Communist party government is able to manage so complex a continental-scale economy through a formidable period of transition.

Some officials argue against drawing rosy conclusions. Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, last week suggested negative effects from the China volatility could be felt in Europe and damage confidence, as he left the door open to further monetary stimulus.

At the Fed, officials are tracing the possible China-linked risks ahead of its meeting on September 16-17. The central bank would not want to lift rates at a time of severe market volatility, but if markets calm down by September 16 other factors will come into play.

Jon Faust, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who used to be a Fed adviser, said at a panel at the Brookings Institution last week that US policy makers needed to try to look beyond the China-inspired market gyrations to form judgments on the real US economy.

He added: “Does the volatility signal something about the underlying economy, or is it like a lot of volatility in financial markets — the kind that will ultimately leave no trace in the data?”

20国集团(G20)的财长们坚称，全球经济无需担心中国放缓。他们试图驱散增长乏力和市场动荡投下的忧愁阴影。

在土耳其举行的两天会议落下帷幕之际，代表世界总产出85%的与会者表示对经济预测有信心，尽管近来有证据表明全球经济增长未能达到预期。

欧洲各国部长们对北京方面展现出坚定支持；中方成功说服G20的很多官员：人民币贬值和新的汇率管理安排，是向着在更大程度上由市场决定汇率的目标迈出的一步，而非刺激出口的权宜之计。

德国财长沃尔夫冈?朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Sch?uble)表示，20国集团一致认为，没有理由担心中国增长放缓，而欧盟经济事务专员皮埃尔?莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)对“（中国）当局保持增长的坚定决心”表示赞赏。

美国的支持相对有所保留。美国财长杰克?卢(Jack Lew)敦促中国财长楼继伟发出信号表明，中国不仅将允许市场压力压低人民币汇率，也将允许其推高汇率。

对于中国的困境对美国经济增长（全球经济为数不多的亮点之一）产生的影响，经济学家们迄今保持乐观基调。美联储(Federal Reserve)将在不久后开会，决定是否上调创纪录低位的利率，这将是美联储近10年来首次加息。

全球经济增长预测近期不断下调，预计国际货币基金组织(IMF)将在秋季展望中调降预测，但中国和美国（世界上两个最大的经济体）之间的直接关联颇为狭窄。

这似乎表明，相比许多经贸伙伴，美国经济有望少受一些中国急剧放缓的影响。

上周五出炉的高盛(Goldman Sachs)最新预测表明，中国引发的风暴迄今——包括最近的金融动荡——可能导致美国在未来一年的经济增长降低大约0.2个百分点，这意味着相当温和的影响。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长亚当?波森(Adam Posen)提出，市场骚动被夸大了。

“人们对中国经济放缓做了太多文章。中国与美国之间的直接金融和贸易联系其实相当有限，”波森补充道。

美国经济相对封闭，出口仅占国内生产总值(GDP)的13%（相比之下，消费者支出的贡献达到70%），使其在理论上是最不容易受到中国低迷影响的大型经济体之一。

美国只有7%的出口流向中国。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)上周发表的研究提出，中国经济增长每下降1%，将只会降低0.1个百分点的美国增长。

尽管对苹果(Apple)等跨国公司来说，近年来中国是一个成长型市场，但高盛研究显示，标普500(S&P 500)指数的成分股公司整体只有2%的营收直接来自中国。美国大银行对中国封闭金融体系的敞口也很有限，仅占3%左右的资产。

不过，从另一面看，中国的困境产生了更广泛的涟漪效应。牛津经济研究所(Oxford Economics)本周将发表的研究将提出，对美国来说，中国大幅放缓带来的主要风险将是通过其对别的新兴市场产生的间接影响，这种影响可能触发金融压力和普遍的贸易减速。该项研究将指出，尽管美国对华直接出口也许并不多，但新兴市场整体占美国商品出口近一半。

中国当局对金融市场的干预，也带出了关于其经济政策制定者水平有多高的问题，以及共产党政府有没有能力管理好如此复杂如此庞大的经济，使其安然度过艰巨的转型期。

一些官员反对得出乐观结论。欧洲央行(ECB)马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上周暗示，中国波动性带来的负面影响可以在欧洲感受到，这有损信心；他为进一步货币刺激政策打下了伏笔。

在美联储，官员们在9月16-17日开会前密集研究潜在的中国相关风险。这家美国央行不会希望在市场严重波动之际加息，但如果市场到了9月16日已经平静下来，那么其他因素将得到考虑。

约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)教授、曾经担任美联储顾问的乔恩?福斯特(Jon Faust)上周在布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的一个专家小组讨论期间表示，美国政策制定者的眼光需要设法超越中国引发的市场起伏，对美国经济的真实现状作出判断。

他补充说：“波动性是否发出了有关经济基本面的什么信号？抑或它就像金融市场的大量波动一样，最终不会在经济数据上留下任何痕迹？”

译者/和风