【英语财经】中国经济形势影响美联储加息前景 Uncertainty swirls over outlook as Fed ponders next step

For Federal Reserve policymakers championing a rate increase this autumn, the pieces were falling neatly into place. Then the China-induced squall struck.

Now as senior Fed figures gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual symposium, market gyrations and the potential for a sharp downturn in China, by some measures the world’s biggest economy, have put widespread expectations for a move next month on ice, and some economists are questioning whether a rise will happen in 2015 at all.

William Dudley, the New York Fed president, argued on Wednesday that the case for September had become “less compelling”, even if he was ruling nothing out. Esther George, the hawkish president of the Kansas City Fed, which is arranging the meetings, agreed that the Fed had to tread cautiously.

The problem for the Fed is the sheer uncertainty over how grave the Chinese downturn will be, and the concern that Beijing’s leadership has a much shakier handle on its markets and economy than previously believed. Given market volatility, it makes more sense to wait and see how the ruckus affects the data than to rush with a rate increase that might only add to the turmoil.

Yet what makes the picture doubly complex is that, even as overseas developments conspire to dislodge officials’ September aspirations, the domestic US economy is looking progressively healthier, suggesting a widening gulf between the US and emerging markets.

Official growth data yesterday showed that the economy grew more quickly than estimated in the second quarter, rising by 3.7 per cent — well above sub-2 per cent estimates of potential growth. The first half of the year, which a few months ago appeared a write-off to the Fed, actually saw a robust expansion.

“We entered the market turbulence with momentum, and that is great,” said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial in Chicago. “But the turbulence reflects a new reality about China, emerging markets, and growth abroad. It’s more shaky, less consistent. The best-case scenario is China can stabilise at a lower growth rate. That is a different paradigm from what we have known from last decade.”

US exports to China represent only

1 per cent of its GDP, meaning the direct impact of the Chinese economic woes looks modest at first glance. Indeed, the slump in commodity prices triggered in part by the slowdown could deliver a fresh impetus to US households, after consumption grew more than 3 per cent in four out of the five past quarters.

But China accounted for 40 per cent of global growth last year, meaning the indirect effects of its problems, especially when coupled with weakness in other emerging markets such as Brazil, could still reverberate back to the US via the dozens of countries that rely on China heavily. The prospect of stronger growth and higher rates in the US could trigger capital flight from weakening emerging markets, as well as currency gyrations and further market instability. That could push up the dollar further, dragging on US exports and inflation.

Also, some investors fear China could liquidate holdings of US treasuries as it supports its currency, with impact on American bond markets. That concern may help explain why US yields have held up in recent days, although Roberto Perli of Cornerstone Macro argues the reason for robust yields is likely to be optimism about the US recovery.

Further muddying the US outlook is the inflation picture. While the Fed is now on the cusp of meeting the first half of its dual mandate, which requires it to ensure maximum employment, the second half — targeting 2 per cent inflation — is much less certain. Market inflation expectations have dipped of late as commodity prices slump amid faltering Chinese demand and generous supply. With West Texas Intermediate oil prices back below $40 a barrel, there is a risk that inflation figures get knocked back again, further delaying the prospect of a return to the Fed’s 2 per cent target.

Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, skipped this year’s Jackson Hole meetings, as did the European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, meaning attention will be focused squarely on vice-chair Stanley Fischer, who will address the conference tomorrow. He will have to give a carefully nuanced message.

Ms Yellen has gone to great lengths to convince markets that the Fed is ready to lift short-term rates this year. Acting sooner will allow the central bank to tighten gradually, she told Congress this summer. But if the Fed does not raise rates in September, officials may start to feel compelled to start opening the door to a move in 2016, given the uncertainty over whether the opportunity will come in the two meetings of the year.

That would only embolden those investors who argue that the US economy simply is not ready for higher rates.

对主张今年秋季加息的美联储(Fed)政策制定者来说，加息原本已万事俱备。接着中国引发的风暴就呼啸而来了。

在美联储高级官员齐聚怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)出席他们的年度研讨会之际，市场动荡和中国经济急剧放缓的可能性让此前普遍预期美联储将在下月加息的人们改变了心意，一些经济学家还在质疑2015年内加息是否有戏。按某些指标计算，中国是全球最大的经济体。

纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉?达德利(William Dudley)周三提出，9月加息的理由变得“不那么有说服力”，尽管他丝毫没有排除这种可能性。持鹰派立场的堪萨斯城联邦储备银行（该行正负责杰克逊霍尔会议的安排）行长埃丝特?乔治(Esther George)同意美联储必须谨慎行事的观点。

美联储面临的难题在于，中国经济放缓会有多严重完全未知，还存在一种担忧，即中国领导层对其市场和经济的掌控可能远不如早前预期的牢固。鉴于市场出现波动，暂时按兵不动、看看这种波动如何影响数据，比仓促出台可能只会加剧动荡的加息更为明智。

然而，让局面更为复杂的是，就在海外的事态合力打消了官员9月加息的劲头之际，美国国内经济表现得越来越健康，表明美国和新兴市场之间的差距日益扩大。

昨日发布的官方数据显示，美国经济第二季度年化增速超出预期，达到3.7%，远高于此前不足2%的潜在增长估测。美国经济实际上在今年上半年强劲增长——几个月前，美联储还认为今年上半年的经济表现乏善可陈。

芝加哥金融服务公司Mesirow Financial的黛安娜?斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“我们以良好的势头进入了市场波动时期，这非常好。但这种波动反映出中国、新兴市场以及海外增长的新现实。它更虚弱，更不稳定。最好的情况是，中国能够以较低的增速企稳。这种模式跟我们在过去十年了解到的不是同一回事。”

美国对华出口仅占其GDP的1%，这意味着，乍看之下中国经济低迷不会造成多大的直接影响。实际上，在过去5个季度中有4个季度消费增长逾3%之后，一定程度上由中国经济放缓引起的大宗商品价格暴跌还可能对美国家庭产生新的推动。

但去年中国为全球贡献了40%的增长，这意味着，中国经济低迷的间接影响仍可能通过数十个严重依赖中国的国家波及美国，尤其是在巴西等其他新兴市场疲弱之际。美国经济加速增长和加息的前景可能引发资本从疲弱的新兴市场流出，以及汇率波动和市场进一步动荡。这可能进一步推升美元汇率，拖累美国出口，拉低通胀。

此外，一些投资者担心中国可能在支持人民币汇率之际清掉所持美国国债，这将对美国债券市场产生影响。这种担忧可能有助于解释为何美国国债收益率最近几天保持坚挺，尽管Cornerstone Macro的罗伯托?佩尔利(Roberto Perli)认为，收益率走势强劲的原因可能是对美国经济复苏感到乐观。

进一步扰乱美国前景的是通胀状况。尽管美联储现在即将实现其双重使命的前半部分，即确保充分就业，但能否实现后半部分使命——即实现2%的通胀目标——则远未确定。在中国需求骤降和供应充足的情况下，大宗商品价格大幅下跌，市场通胀预期最近有所下降。考虑到西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)价格重回每桶40美元以下，通胀数据有可能再次受到打击，进一步延迟重返美联储2%目标值的前景。

美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)缺席了今年的杰克逊霍尔会议，同时缺席的还有欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)，这意味着人们的注意力将完全聚焦于美联储副主席斯坦利?费希尔(Stanley Fischer)身上，后者将于明日在会议上发表演讲。费希尔须仔细斟酌明日讲话的措辞。

耶伦已经为说服市场相信美联储准备今年提高短期利率付出了极大努力。她在今年夏季曾向美国国会表示，及早行动将让美联储可以逐步收紧银根。但如果美联储没有在今年9月提高利率，鉴于今年最后两次会议上有无加息机会并不确定，官员们可能会感到有必要开始为2016年加息创造机会。

这只会让那些主张美国经济根本没有做好加息准备的投资者更加有恃无恐。

译者/邹策