【英语财经】美国经济第二季度增长强劲 Picture of rude US economic health exacerbates Fed rates conundrum

US growth surged much more strongly than expected in the second quarter of this year, according to data that

highlighted the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve over whether to raise interest rates in September.

The US is offering a picture of relative rude health just as this week’s market turmoil has crystallised concerns over the impact of a slowdown in China and other emerging economies.

It grew at an annual rate of 3.7 per cent in the three months to June, the Commerce Department said as it revised up its initial estimate of 2.3 per cent growth.

The better than expected figures, which came as central bankers from around the world gathered in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual August retreat, were due in part to a continuing build-up in inventories, which economists saw as a potential weak point. But the release offered a picture of broad strength in the US with consumers, businesses and government all spending and investing more than initially thought.

Despite a strong dollar and fear over its impact on exports, net trade added 0.2 percentage points to growth, although that was partly due to a fall in imports. Meanwhile, corporate profits rose 2.4 per cent in the second quarter.

The strong gross domestic product data were welcomed by markets, with the dollar gaining against the euro and other currencies. They highlighted the dilemma facing the Fed: whether to go ahead and raise rates for the first time since 2006 on the back of what looks like an increasingly solid US recovery, or factor in the growing economic uncertainty abroad and hold fire.

William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, gave a nod to the latter scenario when he said on Wednesday that the case for tightening monetary policy had become “less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago”.

Economists said that the real focus for members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee would be on the outlook for both growth and inflation, which remained vulnerable.

“The Federal Reserve will pay more attention to financial turbulence than the positive revision to GDP, especially with almost half of the upward revision springing from the upgrade to inventory building,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight.

数据显示，美国第二季度经济增长比预期强劲得多，这突显了美联储(Federal Reserve)在9月是否加息的问题上面临的难题。

美国呈现相对健康的景象之际，本周的市场动荡表明各方担忧中国和其他新兴经济体增长放缓的冲击波。

美国商务部表示，美国经济在截至6月的三个月里按年率计算增长3.7%，远高于之前初步估测的2.3%。

眼下世界各国的央行官员正汇聚怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)，举行每年8月的聚会。美国经济数据好于预期的部分原因是库存持续增加，经济学家认为这是一个潜在的薄弱点。但是，这批数据呈现了美国经济总体健康的局面，消费者、企业和政府的支出和投资都高于最初的想象。

尽管人们曾担忧强势美元对出口的影响，但净出口贡献了0.2个百分点的增长，尽管这在一定程度上是由于进口下降。与此同时，企业利润在第二季度增长2.4%。

强劲的国内生产总值(GDP)数据受到市场欢迎，美元相对于欧元和其他货币走高。这使美联储的两难境地表露无遗：以看似日益稳固的美国经济复苏为依据，按计划进行自2006年以来的首次加息？抑或考虑海外不断加剧的经济不确定性，暂时按兵不动？

纽约联储(New York Fed)行长威廉?达德利(William Dudley)似乎对后一种情形表示认可，他在周三表示，收紧货币政策的理由“在我看来似乎不如几周前那么有说服力”。

经济学家们表示，美联储负责制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的成员们真正关注的将是增长和通胀两方面的前景，而这两个方面仍然是脆弱的。

“相比GDP得到向上修正，美联储将更加注重金融动荡，尤其是在近半上修幅度源自库存增加的情况下，”环球通视(IHS Global Insight)首席经济学家纳里曼?贝拉韦什(Nariman Behravesh)表示。

译者/和风