【英语财经】中国经济局势加剧美联储内部辩论 China turmoil adds to Fed jitters as US rate rise decision l ...

The turmoil in China has intensified the debate within a divided Federal Reserve over whether the inflation outlook will be strong enough to justify higher interest rates as soon as next month, as global policymakers struggle to get to grips with the clouded outlook for the People’s Republic.

Events in China have shaken faith in the country’s economic management among officials attending the Jackson Hole meetings in Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, as well as exposing the uncertainty among western policymakers about the true health of its economy.

Nowhere is the debate on the repercussions more immediate and significant than within the US Fed, which faces a pivotal policy meeting next month.

On Saturday, Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice-chairman, acknowledged the central bank was looking at China and its impact on other economies “even more closely than usual” but insisted there was still “good reason” that US inflation would head to the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee appear to have become more unsure about the outlook, however. Last week William Dudley, the head of the New York Fed, said the reasons for lift-off had become less compelling because of events in China.

Narayana Kocherlakota, the dovish president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that new downside risks to the global outlook were “another argument to be very cautious about removing accommodation and potentially to consider adding accommodation”. By contrast, James Bullard, the president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said: “The assessment will probably be that the outlook has not changed that much for the US economy, the market turbulence didn’t develop into something more dangerous, and so we can probably just go ahead with our existing strategy.”

Arguments for a September rise are being backed by strong domestic growth figures, with the US economy expanding 3.7 per cent in the second quarter, and optimism about the jobs market, with important numbers due on Friday.

Central bankers emerged from meetings over the weekend with conflicting views over the effect of the China-induced market turmoil, with some downplaying the threat to their own economies even as others emphasised new risks facing the world economy.

Vítor Constancio, European Central Bank vice-president, said the market had probably overreacted to China’s woes and the episode need not prompt an immediate shift in western policy.

“Now the assessment is more well-grounded, because the indicators about the real economy in China don’t seem to justify the correction in the stock market,” he said. “We all know about the big challenges they face, so that is a situation we monitor very closely.”

At the same meetings in Jackson Hole, Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, said developments in China were unlikely to change the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s plans for “limited and gradual” interest rate rises.

But western policymakers are still struggling to figure out how significant the weakness in China will prove to be — in part because of the opacity of the country’s data and complexity of its decision-making processes.

A presentation by David Li, a professor at Tsinghua University with close links to Chinese officials, was well attended by central bankers on Friday, anxious for better insights into the gravity of the slowdown. “For the people who were concerned about the forces of deflation, those clouds have darkened with China, and the question is whether it’s going to be a drizzle or a storm,” said Randall Kroszner, a professor of economics at the Chicago Booth School and a former Fed governor.

“I haven’t seen evidence that China is over the cliff, but the violent market movements suggest we don’t know. And that’s partly because of the lack of transparency in the Chinese data.”

Fed officials will be assessing several channels through which the China turbulence could affect the US, including via import prices, tighter financial conditions, and the knock-on effects from a Chinese slowdown. The conclusions they draw will help guide discussion at the September 16-17 meetings.

Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, warned the US not to make the increase at a time of uncertainty. “My position over time has been don’t do it when the world is in turmoil. It’s a long anticipated event, it has to happen some time; everyone knows it has to happen, but pick your time.”

However, Richard Portes, a professor at London Business School, said China’s woes had been “overhyped” and should not affect western policy.

中国的动荡加剧了意见分歧的美联储(Federal Reserve)内部的辩论，其焦点是：美国的通胀前景是否足够强势，以至于下月就应该加息？目前全球政策制定者正竭力研判中国的不确定经济前景。

对于汇聚怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔、出席由堪萨斯城联储(Kansas City Fed)主持的年度会议的官员们，中国发生的事情动摇了他们对中国经济管理的信心，同时也暴露了西方政策制定者对中国经济真实健康状况的不确定性。

对于下月就将迎来关键政策会议的美联储，围绕中国经济局势影响的辩论最为紧迫，也最为举足轻重。

上周六，美联储副主席斯坦利?费希尔(Stanley Fischer)承认，美国央行正在“比通常更加密切地”关注中国及其对其他经济体的影响，但坚称仍有“充分理由”相信，美国的通胀率将趋近这家央行设定的2%的目标。

然而，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的一些成员似乎已变得对前景不那么有把握。上周，纽约联储(New York Fed)行长威廉?达德利(William Dudley)表示，中国的局势意味着，很快就开始加息的理由已变得“不那么有说服力”。

明尼阿波利斯联储(Minneapolis Fed)的鸽派行长纳拉亚纳?柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)表示，全球前景面对的新的下行风险是“对取消宽松应采取非常审慎态度、甚至可能应考虑增加宽松的又一个论据”。与此形成对照的是，圣路易斯联储(St Louis Fed)行长詹姆斯?布拉德(James Bullard)表示：“评估结果将很可能是，对美国经济来说，前景并没有发生太大的变化，市场动荡并没有演变成更加危险的局势，因此我们很可能可以按计划执行我们的现有战略。”

9月就加息的主张得到强劲国内增长数据的支持，美国经济在第二季度按年率计算增长3.7%，同时各方对就业市场感到乐观（本周五将发布重要数据）。

在参加了周末会议后，央行官员们对中国诱发的市场动荡的影响看法不一，其中一些人淡化了其所在经济体面临的威胁，而另一些人强调世界经济面对新的风险。

欧洲央行(ECB)副行长维托尔?康斯坦西奥(Vítor Constancio)表示，市场很可能对中国的困境作出了过度反应，这段插曲不需要促使西方政策立即转向。

“现在的评估更站得住脚，因为有关中国实体经济的各项指标似乎不能证明股市的回调有道理，”他表示。“我们都知道他们所面临的巨大挑战，所以我们在非常密切地关注形势。”

在杰克逊霍尔的会议上，英国央行(Bank of England)行长马克?卡尼(Mark Carney)表示，中国的事态不太可能改变英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)“有限和渐进”加息的计划。

但是，西方决策者们仍很难弄清中国的疲弱最终将被证明有多严重，这在一定程度上是因为中国的数据不透明，而其决策过程又极其复杂。

上周五，很多迫切希望获得关于中国经济放缓严重性的一手信息的央行官员，聆听了由清华大学教授、与中国官员圈子有密切联系的李稻葵(David Li)所作的发言。“对于那些担忧通缩势头的人士，中国头上的乌云变得更加阴暗了，问题是接下来将是毛毛雨还是暴雨，”美联储前理事、现任芝加哥大学布斯商学院(Chicago Booth School)经济学教授的兰达尔?克鲁斯内尔(Randall Kroszner)表示。

“我没有看到证据表明中国已经冲出了悬崖边缘，但剧烈的市场走势似乎表明，我们没有看懂。这在一定程度上是因为中国的数据缺乏透明度。”

美联储官员将评估中国的动荡可能会传递到美国的数个通道，包括进口价格、更紧张的财务状况，以及中国经济放缓所产生的连锁影响。他们得出的结论将帮助指引9月16-17日会议上的讨论。

印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆?拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)警告美国不要在充满不确定性的时期加息。“我长期以来形成的立场是，不要在世界处于动荡的时候动手。美国加息是一件各方预期已久的事情，它早晚得发生；大家都知道它必须发生，但你得好好挑你的时机。”

不过，伦敦商学院(London Business School)教授理查德?波特斯(Richard Portes)表示，中国的困境已被“炒作过头”，西方的政策不应受它影响。

译者/和风