【英语财经】中国面临的最大威胁并非经济 Militarism risky temptation for Beijing

The gigantic military parade that will pass through Beijing on Thursday is meant to be all about the past. But, inevitably, many in the Asia-Pacific region will see it as a disturbing message about the future.

The Chinese government has called the parade to mark the 70th anniversary of “victory in the war of Japanese aggression”. But, in the 21st century, it is potential Chinese aggression that is worrying many Asian countries. China has unresolved territorial disputes with several of its neighbours. Vietnam, India, Japan and the Philippines have all complained about Chinese incursions, backed by military force, into these disputed areas. This year China has also engaged in “land reclamation” projects in the South China Sea — creating entire islands that are likely to be equipped with airstrips and military facilities, to reinforce Beijing’s claims to territorial waters thousands of miles from the Chinese mainland.

Such overt militarism is a risky course. If it goes wrong, it could destroy the international order that has provided the basis for China’s stunning economic success over the past 40 years. Ever since the late 1970s, successive Chinese leaders have realised that the economic transformation of their country depended on globalisation and peaceful relations with their major trading partners. To get the message across, Chinese leaders parroted slogans such as “peaceful rise” and “harmonious world”.

Under President Xi Jinping, however, China seems inclined to take a more assertive approach in territorial disputes that it regards as part of its “core national interests”. This is a reflection of both strength and weakness.

On the one hand, China is now — by some measures — the world’s largest economy. Mr Xi and his government may feel their country is now strong enough to use its power more directly. There are strategic thinkers in China who will say openly that they no longer believe that the US is willing to risk a clash with China over Taiwan or the South China Sea.

However, the temptation of militarism may also be strengthened by the difficult economic transition that China now faces. A year-long surge in the stock market came to a crashing halt this summer and the economy is slowing. Mr Xi’s anti-corruption campaign is causing discontent at the top levels of the Communist party. The recent deadly industrial accident and explosion in Tianjin highlighted two of the biggest causes of popular discontent in modern China — a dreadful environmental record and a sense that regulations are flouted by the rich and powerful.

Under the circumstances, a patriotic military parade may seem like just the thing to rally popular support behind the Communist party and its leadership. The march will pass through Tiananmen Square, scene of the notorious repression of the student movement in 1989. Ever since that date, the Communist party has based its legitimacy on two pillars. The first is strong economic growth. The second is nationalism, or what Mr Xi calls the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”. With growth faltering, there is clearly a strong temptation to rely even further on nationalism.

However, playing the nationalism card creates new risks. The evidence can be seen in a palpable rise in tensions across the Asia-Pacific region. In Japan, the government of Shinzo Abe is going through the controversial process of revising the country’s pacifist constitution, to allow Japan to dispatch its military to fight abroad. The US Navy has just announced that it plans to send more ships to the Asia-Pacific region, with Pentagon officials pointedly stressing that the vessels chosen are “ideally suited for a role in the South China Sea”. Australia announced this week that it is increasing its defence spending and strengthening military co-operation with the US. India is already the world’s second-largest arms importer and is also drawing closer to the US. And earlier this summer Benigno Aquino, president of the Philippines, compared the world’s reaction to Beijing’s behaviour in the South China Sea to the appeasement of Nazi Germany.

Of course, compared with the violent chaos across the Middle East, or even the warfare in Ukraine, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region remains enviably calm. But while the tensions in Asia are lower than in the Middle East, the stakes are higher. The military tensions there involve China, the US and Japan — the three largest economies in the world.

Mr Xi and his colleagues surely know that a serious military conflict would be a tragic mistake for China. The real risk is not that China will choose war, but that its leadership might miscalculate the reactions of its neighbours or the US — and that a territorial dispute or an unplanned military clash at sea then escalates into a major international incident. Even if such a crisis were swiftly defused, the political fallout could inflict lasting damage on both China and the global economy.

For all the current talk of a crisis in the Chinese growth model, the likelihood is that China still has many years of increasing prosperity ahead of it. The biggest threat to that prospect is not a stock market crash or a credit bubble. It is the danger that China’s “peaceful rise” is disrupted by a conflict with its neighbours. China’s leaders should not lose sight of that danger, as they take the salute on Thursday.

一场盛大的阅兵式即将于本周四穿过北京城，这原本应该完全关乎过去。但是，不可避免地，亚太地区的很多国家将视之为一个关于未来的令人不安的讯息。

中国政府称，此次阅兵是为了纪念“抗日战争胜利”70周年。但是，在如今的21世纪，中国潜在的侵犯威胁才是让很多亚洲国家备感担忧之事。中国和一些邻国之间存在尚未解决的领土争端。越南、印度、日本和菲律宾均对中国在军事力量的支持下进入争议地区的举动有所抱怨。今年中国还在南中国海上进行了“填海造岛”活动——建造整个岛屿来加强中国对位于中国大陆上千英里以外的领海宣称的主权。这些岛屿很可能会配备飞机跑道和军事设施。

如此明显的尚武之举实属一条危险道路。如果走错了，可能会破坏国际秩序，而这种秩序正是过去40年中国取得令人惊叹的经济成功的基础。自上世纪70年代末以来，中国历任领导人均意识到，中国的经济转型依靠的是全球化以及中国与主要贸易伙伴的和平关系。为了传递出这种讯息，中国领导人不断重复着诸如“和平崛起”和“和谐世界”的口号。

然而，在中国国家主席习近平的领导下，中国似乎想要在领土争端（被视为“国家核心利益”）的问题上采取更强势的方式。这同时反映出中国的强大和弱点。

一方面，以一些衡量标准来看，现在中国是全世界最大的经济体。习近平及中国政府也许认为，中国如今已足够强大，可以更直接地运用自己的实力了。中国一些战略专家会公开表示，他们不再相信美国会甘愿在台湾或南中国海的问题上冒与中国发生冲突的危险。

然而，中国眼下面对的艰难的经济转型，或许也会强化尚武主义的诱惑。长达一年的牛市在今年夏天戛然而止，中国经济也正在放缓。习近平的反腐运动正在中共高层中引发不满。最近天津那场致命的工业爆炸事故凸显了现代中国造成群众不满的两大原因——可怕的环境记录以及有钱有势之人蔑视法规的感觉。

在这种情况下，一场爱国色彩的阅兵式或许看起来恰好是团结民众支持中共及其领导层的一件事。阅兵队伍将通过天安门广场——著名的1989年天安门事件的现场。自那次事件以后，中共将其执政合法性建立在两大支柱上。第一，强劲的经济增长。第二，民族主义，或者习近平所说的“中华民族的伟大复兴”。在增长减弱之际，中共显然面对进一步依赖于民族主义的强大诱惑。

然而，大打民族主义牌也带来了新的风险。这可以从亚太地区明显升温的紧张态势中看出。在日本，安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)当局正采取修改和平宪法这条备受争议的途经，以允许日本向海外派遣军队作战。美国海军刚刚宣布，计划向亚太地区派遣更多军舰，而美国国防部则特别强调称所选军舰“非常适合在南中国海发挥作用”。澳大利亚本周宣布，将增加国防开支、加强与美国的军事合作。印度已经是全球第二大武器进口国，也在与美国拉近关系。今年夏天早些时候，菲律宾总统贝尼尼奥?阿基诺三世(Benigno Aquino)把世界对中国在南中国海上举动的反应比作对纳粹德国的绥靖政策。

当然，与整个中东的暴力混乱、或是乌克兰的内战相比，亚太地区的局势仍然平静得令人羡慕。但是，尽管亚洲的紧张态势比中东轻，风险却更高。亚洲的军事紧张涉及中国、美国和日本——全世界最大的三个经济体。

习近平及其同僚当然明白，一旦发生严重的军事冲突，对中国来说将是一个悲剧性的错误。真正的风险不是中国会选择战争，而是其领导层可能会错误地估计其邻国或美国的反应——以及领土争端或计划之外的海上军事冲突会随后升级为重大的国际事件。即便这样一场危机被迅速化解，危机带来的政治后果也可能会对中国及全球经济造成持久性的损害。

尽管目前对中国增长模式中的危机有诸多讨论，但中国未来可能仍然有很多年的持续繁荣。对这种前景最大的威胁并非股市崩盘或信贷泡沫。威胁在于，中国的“和平崛起”被其与邻国的冲突打断。在周四的阅兵式上接受敬礼时，中国领导人不应忘记这种威胁。

译者/何黎