【英语财经】短线观点：美联储9月加息概率多大？ Short View: Don’t discount an autumn rate rise from the Federal Reserve

Last week, it looked like markets had bullied the US

Federal Reserve into delaying interest rate increases, but over the weekend one of the central bank’s most senior and respected policymakers fought back.

Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chairman and the only board member aside from Janet Yellen who has actually run a central bank before (the Bank of Israel) did not overtly insist that a September rate rise was still on the table, but his message was clear.

Weak wage growth went unmentioned, and China

warranted only a cursory sentence in Mr Fischer’s speech at Jackson Hole, the annual central banker jamboree. In contrast, the garlanded economist said that he expected inflation to head higher as temporary headwinds dissipated, and stressed that monetary policy should be tightened well before inflation returns to the 2 per cent target.

His words helped push the probability of a rate increase next month, as measured by interest rate futures, up from a low of just 22 per cent last week to 36 per cent yesterday. Admittedly, Mr Fischer only kept the possibility alive, and other policymakers take a less sanguine view of the recent bout of turmoil.

Last week, New York Fed head William Dudley said he felt that the turbulence had made the case for near-term rate increases “less compelling”, and a wide variety of economists and bond market veterans agree.

Fed funds futures are still well below their August peak and the US Treasury market rallied yesterday, despite the Fed vice-chairman’s relatively hawkish tone.

However, if markets continue to simmer down and economic data continue to be robust then it remains eminently possible that the Fed could lift interest rates in

September. US jobs data due out on Friday will be even more crucial than normal. Indeed, Mr Fischer made a point of highlighting the upcoming report, elevating its importance even further.

Deutsche Bank points out that the August reading often tends to miss, only to be revised up later. The current median economist estimate is for 216,000 new jobs. If it proves that strong, then September lift-off will look much more likely.

上周，市场似乎让美联储(Fed)陷入不得不推迟加息的境地，但在上周末，美联储资历最深、最受人尊重的政策制定者之一做出了反击。

美联储副主席斯坦利?费希尔(Stanley Fischer)并未公开坚称9月加息仍有的谈，但他传递出的信息是明确的。费希尔是美联储理事会中除珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)以外唯一真正执掌过一家央行（以色列央行(Bank of Israel)）的成员。

费希尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会上没有提及疲弱的薪资增长，对中国也只是一语带过。相比之下，这位享有盛誉的经济学家表示，他预计随着暂时性逆风消散，通胀将会走高，并强调称，应该在通胀远未重返2%的目标水平前收紧货币政策。

他的言论帮助提升了下月加息的可能性——以利率期货市场的行情衡量，美联储下月加息的概率上周仅为22%，昨日已升至36%。诚然，费希尔只是确保了加息的可能性依然存在，其他政策制定者对最近这波市场动荡的看法则不那么乐观。

上周，纽约联储(New York Fed)主席威廉?达德利(William Dudley)表示，他认为市场动荡让近期加息的理由“不那么有说服力”。形形色色的经济学家和债市资深人士都同意这种看法。

尽管美联储副主席发表了相对鹰派的观点，联邦基金利率期货所暗示的利率水平仍远低于今年8月创出的高点，而且美国国债市场昨日上涨。

然而，如果市场继续趋于平静、经济数据继续表现强劲，那么美联储就仍有很大可能在9月加息。定于本周五发布的美国就业数据将较通常更为关键。实际上，费希尔特意强调了即将发布的就业报告，这就进一步提升了它的重要性。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)指出，8月份的读数往往不及预期，之后会被向上修正。经济学家们目前的预估中值是新增就业人数为21.6万。如果真有那么强劲，美联储9月加息的可能性将大大增加。

译者/邹策