【英语财经】中国股市无视央行“双降”继续下跌 No PBoC leap for Chinese markets, down a 5th day

Mainland sharemarkets ultimately gave a thumbs down to the People's Bank of China's decision yesterday to cut interest rates, sending Chinese shares lower for a fifth straight day after a volatile session.

The Shanghai Composite finished 1.3 per cent lower at 2,928, but had been as much as 3.9 per cent lower during the morning session and 4.3 per cent higher in afternoon trade. The Shenzhen Composite followed a similar path, closing 3.1 per cent lower at 1,695.8 and trading through a range of -4.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent, writes Peter Wells.

For such a volatile and steep bear market, it might come as a surprise that Chinese shares notched up their first five-day losing streak since early February, and for anything longer, you'd have to look back to a nine-session slide in December 2013.

In the past five sessions, the Shanghai Composite has fallen 22.8 per cent - a mini bear market in itself - suffering some of its biggest one-day falls on record on Monday and Tuesday.

From its June 12 peak, the Shanghai Composite is now down 43.3 per cent, while Shenzhen stocks are down 46 per cent. Year-to-date, the indices are down 9.5 per cent and up 19.8 per cent, respectively.

Shanghai's weak reaction to the PBoC decision is quite consistent with history, though. According to FastFT calculations, the Shanghai Composite has fallen by an average of 0.4 per cent following PBoC rate cuts over the past two decades [see table 1, below]. On days when the reserve requirement ratio is cut, the index has fallen an average of 0.6 per cent [table 2, below]. Yesterday was the first time since December 2008 both the interest rates and the RRR were cut simultaneously.

中国内地股市最终无视了中国央行(PBoC)昨天的降息决定，在经历了一个动荡的交易日后，连续第五天收跌。

上证综指(Shanghai Composite)收跌1.27%至2927.29点。不过，早盘时该指数跌幅一度达到3.9%，而在下午盘时该指数又曾升至上涨4.3%的点位。深证综指(Shenzhen Composite)也出现了类似行情，虽然收跌3.05%至1695.76点，其震荡范围却低至下跌4.4%，高至上涨3.3%。

对于如此动荡、下滑如此剧烈的熊市来说，另一个可能会令人吃惊的事实是，这是2月初以来中国股市首次出现5连跌。而要想找到更长的连续下跌行情，需要追溯至2013年12月，当时中国股市曾出现9连跌。

在过去5个交易日内，上证综指已跌去22.8%，这已构成了一个小的熊市。其中，周一和周二该指数还曾遭遇最大单日跌幅。

目前，上证综指已从6月12日的峰值跌去43.3%，而深证综指则已跌去46%。今年迄今，这两大股指分别下跌了9.5%和上涨了19.8%。

不过，沪市对央行决定的疲弱反应与历史情况十分吻合。根据FastFT的计算，过去20年里中国央行降息后上证综指平均下跌了0.4%（具体参见表1）。而在央行降准当天，该指数平均下跌0.6%（参见表2）。昨天是自2008年12月以来，中国央行首次同时降息和降准。





译者/简易