【英语财经】分析：抛售是否加剧取决于美国加息前景 Attention now turns to Jackson Hole for signals from Fed on ...

The catalysts for the global market rout of the past few days almost all came from China. But attention has already shifted to the west, and the catalyst for what comes next may well come from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

For good reasons, the Federal Reserve would like to raise interest rates. It has made clear that US unemployment no longer gives a reason to keep rates at emergency lows, and has prepared the market for a first rate rise next month.

That has its own effects, independent of the signs that China’s authorities are not, after all, able to micromanage their economy and capital markets. Global trade has slowed, as has investment.

While stock markets panicked, before US stocks clawed back some lost ground, markets for bonds and the dollar gave the best clues as to what happens next. Forecasts derived from US bond prices suggest that expected average inflation over the next decade has just dropped below 1.5 per cent — for the first time since May 2009, at the worst of the global financial crisis.

Against the other main developed markets, the dollar has fallen sharply. It has even given up all its gains against the euro since Greece elected Alexis Tsipras in January, even as its gains continue against big commodity exporters.

Inflation expectations mattered critically to the Fed under Ben Bernanke. Twice since the crisis, it resorted to fresh bond purchases after falls far milder than this current deflation scare. When the Fed eases, or signals easing, and US rates stay low, the dollar weakens.

So between them the bond and stock markets are calling that the Fed cannot go through with a rate rise, and are acting accordingly. A newly dovish Fed and a weaker dollar would support US companies’ earnings, and relieve many around the world. This, along with the natural physics of markets after extreme moves like yesterday’s helps to explain the US stock market’s recovery after its terrible opening.

It also implies that the message from the Fed’s annual powwow in Jackson Hole this week will be critical. If officials re-emphasise their desire for a rate rise, the market sell-off could re-intensify.

If the Fed opts to bow to market pressure for now, then the sell-off could abate. The question of whether this latest Black Monday turns out to be the start of a bear market for developed market stocks will hinge, as before, on news from the Chinese economy.

过去几天全球股市暴跌的诱因几乎全部来自中国。但市场的注意力已转向西方，下一个诱因可能来自美国怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)。

美联储(Fed)希望加息，这是有充分理由的。美联储已明确表示，美国失业率不再为将利率保持在紧急低位提供理由，并已经就下月首次加息为市场打了预防针。

这有其自己的影响，与中国当局终究无法对经济和资本市场进行微观管理的迹象无关。全球贸易和投资已经放缓。

在美国股市收复部分失地之前，股市陷入恐慌，同时债市和美元汇率为接下来会发生的事情提供了最佳线索。从美国债券价格中得出的预测显示，未来10年的平均预期通胀率刚刚降至1.5%以下，为自2009年5月全球金融危机最糟糕时期以来的首次。

美元对其他主要发达市场货币的汇率大幅下滑。美元兑欧元汇率的下跌甚至已抹掉今年1月希腊选举亚历克西斯?齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)担任总理以来的全部涨幅，尽管美元对大宗商品出口大国货币的升幅继续扩大。

在本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)任内，美联储非常在意通胀预期。自此次金融危机以来，美联储已有两次在通胀预期下降后采取新的债券购买举措，并且那两次下降远比当前的通缩恐慌温和。当美联储放松货币政策或释放出放松信号时，美国利率保持在低位，美元汇率下跌。

因此，债市和股市都认为美联储肯定无法按计划加息，而且正据此做出反应。重新变得温和的美联储和美元贬值将支撑美国公司的盈利，并让全球很多投资者松一口气。这一点，再加上自昨日这种极端走势之后市场的自然调整，有助于解释美国股市在惨淡开盘后的反弹。

这还暗示，本周美联储杰克逊霍尔年度会议传出的讯息将至关重要。如果美联储官员再次强调他们的加息愿望，市场抛售可能会重新加剧。

如果美联储选择暂时向市场压力低头，那么市场抛售可能会减缓。最新的这次“黑色星期一”是否将成为发达市场股市熊市的开始？像以前一样，这个问题将取决于中国经济传出的消息。

译者/梁艳裳