【英语财经】数据：近万亿美元流出新兴市场 $1tn surge from emerging markets and warnings of more to come

A surge of capital gushing out of emerging markets has risen toward $1tn over the past 13 months, roughly double the amount that fled during the financial crisis, amid slumping confidence in the world’s developing economies.

The sustained exodus reinforces concerns that emerging market economies, suffering slowing growth and weakening currencies, are relinquishing their longstanding role as locomotives for global growth to become a drag on demand.

Analysts say the flow may accelerate following China’s currency devaluation this month and nervousness over an expected US Federal Reserve rate rise.

“These outflows have much further to go,” said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging market strategist at NN Investment Partners, an investment bank. Capital outflows result when investors, corporations, financial institutions and others move their money offshore, thereby applying downward pressure on the country’s currency.

Total net capital outflows from the 19 largest emerging market economies reached $940.2bn in the 13 months to the end of July, almost double the net $480bn that flowed out during three quarters during the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to a compilation of official data and estimates by NN.

The outflows mark a sharp reversal from the robust infusion of funds emerging markets received in the six years following the crisis as they helped invigorate a feeble global economy. From July 2009 to the end of June last year, a net $2tn in capital flowed into the 19 emerging markets, NN found.

As funds cascade out, a vicious circle is triggered. Currencies tumble against the dollar, damping demand for imports and driving down aggregate demand. In June, for example, emerging market imports were 13.2 per cent lower year-on-year, according to a moving average compiled by Capital Economics.

“The collapse in emerging market imports reflects a more fundamental drop in demand as capital outflows have forced domestic demand to shrink and lower commodity prices have eroded incomes in commodity-producing countries,” said Neil Shearing of Capital Economics. “So far, there is little sign that we have reached the bottom.”

Emerging market currencies again came under strain yesterday as traders judged that China’s devaluation of the renminbi had removed a rare anchor of currency market stability. In addition, a 6.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent fall in the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets respectively undermined confidence in Beijing’s ability to reinvigorate economic growth.

“Emerging market currencies are currently facing the worst of all storms,” said Bernd Berg, strategist at Société Générale. “Global growth fears [are] driven mainly by a significant slowdown in emerging market countries, while the lukewarm recovery in developed nations is not strong enough to counteract weakness in China and other emerging countries.”

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this autumn underpins the dollar’s strength against developing nation currencies, while fears over China’s economy and political tensions in Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Malaysia are undermining general confidence.

The Turkish lira, down 1 per cent yesterday, and the rouble have fallen this week as they succumbed to uncertainty.

过去13个月已有1万亿美元的资本洪流退出新兴市场，差不多两倍于金融危机期间的资本流出。各方对全球发展中经济体信心低落。

持续的资本外流强化了这样的担忧：遭受经济增长放缓和本币走低的新兴市场经济体，正在交出它们扮演了多年的全球经济增长火车头的角色，转而沦为需求的拖累。

分析师们表示，随着人们对预期的美联储(Federal Reserve)加息感到紧张，加上中国的人民币本月贬值，资本流出可能会提速。

“这些流出远未结束，”投行NN投资伙伴(NN Investment Partners)的新兴市场高级策略师马尔滕-扬?巴库姆(Maarten-Jan Bakkum)表示。当一个国家的投资者、企业、金融机构和其他实体纷纷把资金转移到海外时，就会导致资本流出，进而对该国货币的汇率形成下行压力。

根据NN对官方数据的汇总整理和估计，在截至7月底的13个月里，19个最大新兴市场经济体的资本净流出总量达到9402亿美元，近乎两倍于2008-09年金融危机时三个季度的4800亿美元净流出总量。

资本流出标志着一个急剧逆转；金融危机过后的6年里，随着新兴市场帮助重振虚弱的全球经济，它们曾得到强劲的资本流入。NN发现，从2009年7月到去年6月底，上述19个新兴市场的资本净流入总量达到2万亿美元。

资金不断外流已经引发了一个恶性循环。新兴市场货币兑美元汇率大幅下降，抑制了进口需求，压低了总需求。以今年6月为例，根据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)编制的移动平均数据，新兴市场的进口同比降低13.2%。

“新兴市场进口崩溃，反映了更为根本的需求下降，因为资本外流迫使国内需求萎缩，同时大宗商品价格走低导致大宗商品生产国的收入缩水，”凯投宏观的尼尔?希林(Neil Shearing)表示。“到目前为止，没有什么迹象显示我们已经触底。”

新兴市场货币昨日再度受压，因为交易员们判断，中国引导人民币贬值之举，使汇市失去了一根难得的稳定支柱。此外，上海和深圳股市的主要指数昨日分别下跌6.1%和6.6%，削弱了人们对北京方面有能力重振经济增长的信心。

“新兴市场货币眼下面临着最糟糕的风暴，”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)策略师贝恩德?伯格(Bernd Berg)表示。“对全球经济增长的担忧主要由新兴市场国家的显著放缓驱动，而发达国家的温吞复苏不够强劲，不足以抵消中国和其他新兴国家的疲弱。”

市场预期美联储将在今秋加息，这支撑了美元相对于发展中国家货币的强势，同时，对于中国经济以及土耳其、俄罗斯、巴西和马来西亚政治紧张的担心，正在削弱总体信心。

土耳其里拉昨日走低1%，俄罗斯卢布也在本周下跌，这些货币都受到不确定性的打击。

译者/和风