【英语财经】分析：新兴市场或再次爆发危机 Emerging markets turmoil: in charts

Turmoil across emerging markets has intensified during August and for many veteran fund managers, there is a very real concern that selling pressure will escalate and draw comparisons with past implosions, notably the emerging market crisis of 1998.

Here are some charts that show just how bad things have become in local equity and bond markets in the developing world.

This has obviously been building for some time, with concerns over individual developing countries such as Brazil and Russia, weaker commodity prices and US Federal Reserve interest rate increases on the horizon. But the trigger for the deepening rout is mounting concerns over China’s economy — a vital driver of emerging markets as a whole.

As the charts show, the Shanghai stock market has fallen precipitously this summer, and Beijing this month devalued its currency slightly, exacerbating fears over emerging markets.

Yet there are more profound, fundamental problems dogging emerging markets. As the four charts from Capital Economics show, economic growth, household consumption, industrial production and exports in the developing world have all slowed sharply in recent years.

Of course, emerging markets is a blunt concept, and not every country is in bad shape. Morgan Stanley analysts have made a list of the countries it sees as the most vulnerable, based on factors such as dependence on overseas funding, debts metrics, growth fundamentals and exposure to China.

Brazil, South Africa and Turkey look the worst, while Indonesia, Russia, Peru, Malaysia, Colombia and Mexico are also vulnerable. Morgan Stanley have also made a handy Venn diagram for further illumination.

Drilling down into two of these issues, here are two charts from Barclays and UBS respectively. The first one from Barclays shows which countries are the most dependent on exports to China, while the second one from UBS underscores how there is still plenty of international investor money in emerging bond markets, despite a fierce shake-out in the 2013 “taper tantrum”.

That could mean that foreign inflows are stickier than expected, or that there is much more scope for pain if investors throw in the towel on emerging markets, as they have often done in the past.

新兴市场动荡在8月份加剧，很多资深基金经理存在一种极为切实的担忧：抛售压力将会加大，堪比过去爆发的危机，特别是1998年的新兴市场危机。

以下有一些图表，表明发展中国家的国内股市和债市已变得多么糟。



这个问题显然已积聚了一段时间，投资者对巴西和俄罗斯等个别发展中国家的形势、大宗商品价格的下跌以及美联储(Fed)加息的前景感到担忧。但动荡加剧的导火索是人们对中国经济与日俱增的担忧——中国是整个新兴市场的关键推动力量。

正如图表所显示的那样，今年夏天，上海股市大跌，中国政府本月略微下调了人民币汇率，这些都加剧了对新兴市场的担忧。



然而，一些更深远和更根本的问题正困扰着新兴市场。正如来自凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的4张图表所显示的那样，近些年来，发展中国家的经济增长率、家庭消费、工业产量以及出口都大幅放缓。





当然，新兴市场是一个粗略的概念，并非每个新兴市场国家的状况都糟糕。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师根据对海外资金的依赖程度、债务指标、增长基本面以及对中国敞口等因素，列出了该行认为最脆弱的一些国家。

巴西、南非和土耳其看上去情况最糟，印尼、俄罗斯、秘鲁、马来西亚、哥伦比亚和墨西哥也很脆弱。为了进一步阐释，摩根士丹利还制作了一张直观的维恩图。



以下两张图表考察了其中两个问题，图表分别来自巴克莱(Barclays)和瑞银(UBS)。来自巴克莱的第一张图反映出哪些国家最依赖对华出口，来自瑞银的第二张图则凸显出，尽管2013年“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)期间出现严重震荡，但国际投资者仍有大量资金位于新兴市场债市。



这可能意味着外资流入比人们预料的更有粘性，或者意味着如果投资者在新兴市场认栽退出（就像过去他们经常做过的那样）的话，未来还会有苦得多的日子要过。

译者/梁艳裳