【英语财经】人民币政策变化可能削弱对美债需求 China factor could damp demand for US Treasuries

China is the second-largest investor in US government bonds (or US Treasuries), trailing only the US Federal Reserve, but as the renminbi becomes more international, Chinese demand could drop, with significant implications for US yields.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is scheduled to decide later this year whether to include the RMB in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. In our view, China’s currency now meets the technical requirements for SDR inclusion, and we see a better than even chance that the IMF will add the renminbi.

Beijing appears to have taken up the challenge of the SDR review this year by accelerating the liberalisation of China’s capital account. However, this liberalisation cannot be achieved with a fixed RMB, so China, as this month’s move by its central bank has demonstrated, is likely to be heading towards a floating currency regime.

Such a move has significant implications for China’s reserves policy. According to the IMF’s own reserve adequacy calculations, China’s level of reserves is no longer excessive for a ‘managed’ currency, but still significantly above required levels for a more flexible exchange rate. Provided China continues to keep its reserves aligned to the IMF’s adequacy guidance, this implies a significant reduction in future Chinese demand for US Treasuries.

It’s not SDR inclusion in itself that’s so important for the US treasury market, but the steps required to achieve this.

The steps required do not necessarily mean that China would switch from being an active buyer of US Treasuries to becoming an active seller. Most foreign official US Treasury holdings mature in five years or less: China could potentially make the required adjustment simply by not reinvesting the proceeds from maturing investments back into the US bond market. Nevertheless, even if China simply stopped buying the bonds, the shift in demand could still have a significant impact on the US market.

Over the past 10 years, US Treasury buying by both China and the Fed has effectively ‘removed’ a large chunk of the outstanding stock. The Fed expects to start raising US interest rates this year and expects to cease reinvestments in the bonds at some point after the initial rate hike. If China, as well as the Fed, ends reinvestment in the coming years, we predict a potential increase in the free-float of the US market of more than 70 per cent, between 2014 and 2020 (year-end), leaving a far greater proportion to be absorbed by much more price-sensitive investors.

Such a change represents an important, broader shift. Since the global financial crisis, both the regulatory environment and central bank behaviour have created structural, price-insensitive demand for US Treasuries. In a world where the yield on the 10-year Treasury has traded below 3 per cent almost continuously for the last four years, an outlook where the two largest holders of US Treasuries start to divest would have repercussions across financial markets.

The US economy would face a scenario where financial conditions tighten due to both Fed policy rate hikes and a significant increase in long-term yields.

While the immediate focus is on the impact of the first Fed rate hike in over nine years, the reduction in demand for longer-dated bonds has yet to be given adequate consideration. The speed of such a change might not be as rapid for global fixed income markets as the sharp increase in global bond yields during the ‘taper tantrum’ episode of 2013, when 10-year US Treasury yields rose 140 basis points in the space of four months, but the scale of it could be far more important.

John Davies is US Rates Strategist, Standard Chartered

中国是美国政府债券（即美国国债）的第二大投资者，仅次于美联储(Fed)，但随着人民币变得更国际化，中国对美国国债的需求可能下滑，这将对美国国债收益率造成重大影响。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)定于今年晚些时候决定是否将人民币纳入其特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。在我们看来，人民币现在满足加入SDR货币篮子的技术要求，我们认为IMF纳入人民币的希望超过五成。

中国似乎已通过加快放开资本账户的速度，应对今年SDR评估的挑战。然而，放开资本账户不可能在人民币实行固定汇率制的情况下实现，因此，就像本月中国央行的举措所证明的那样，中国可能正朝着浮动汇率制前进。

此举将对中国的外汇储备政策产生重大影响。根据IMF自己对外汇储备充足率的计算，中国的外汇储备规模对于一种“受到管制”的货币来说不再过高，但仍远远高于较灵活汇率制度所需的水平。如果中国继续让其外汇储备向IMF的充足率指导水平看齐的话，这暗示中国未来对美国国债的需求将大幅回落。

对于美国国债市场而言，重要的不是人民币将加入SDR货币篮子，而是中国为实现这一目标需要采取的措施。

这些需要采取的措施不一定意味着中国将从美国国债的积极买入者变成积极的卖出者。外国官方持有的多数美债都将在5年或更短时间内到期：中国可能只需要不再将到期投资收益重新投入美国债市，就能实现所需的调整。然而，即便中国只是不再购买美债，这种需求变化仍可能对美国市场产生重大影响。

过去10年，中国和美联储对美债的购买实际上“移除”了大量已发行国债存货。美联储预计今年内加息，同时将在首次加息后的某个时间停止对债市的再投资。我们预测，如果未来几年中国和美联储停止再投资，美国国债市场2014年至2020年（截至年底）的自由流通量可能会增加逾70%，意味着有大得多比重的债券要由对价格敏感得多的投资者来吸收。

这种变化是一种重要且更为广泛的变动。自此次全球金融危机以来，监管环境和央行行为都为美国国债制造了结构性的、对价格不敏感的需求。过去4年，10年期国债收益率几乎不间断地低于3%，在这种情况下，美国国债的两个最大持有者开始减持的前景，将对整个金融市场造成影响。

美国经济将面临这一可能性：由于美联储政策利率上调以及长期国债收益率大幅上升，金融状况将收紧。

眼下投资者关注的是美联储9年多来首次加息的影响，而较长期美国国债需求下滑尚未得到足够的重视。对于全球固定收益市场而言，这种变化的速度可能赶不上2013年“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)期间全球债券收益率上升的速度（当时美国10年期国债收益率在4个月内上升140个基点），但重要得多的可能是这种变化的规模。

本文作者是渣打银行(Standard Chartered)美国利率策略师

译者/梁艳裳