【英语财经】惠誉：天津爆炸可能带来15亿美元保险成本 Insurance cost of Tianjin blast set to reach $1.5bn, warns Fitch

Insurance losses following the explosions that devastated the Chinese port city of Tianjin last Wednesday could reach $1.5bn, making it China’s most costly catastrophe in recent years, rating agency Fitch warned yesterday.

The death toll after the blast at a chemicals warehouse that engulfed a block of the port stands at 114, with another 57 missing and hundreds injured.

Investigations into the cause are continuing. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, China’s anti-corruption agency, said yesterday that Yang Dongliang, head of the country’s workplace safety regulator, had been held on suspicion of “severe disciplinary violations”. It did not specify any charges against Mr Yang, who was deputy mayor of Tianjin from 2001 to 2012.

The hit to insurers comes as a downturn in financial markets and a restrictive new regulatory framework clouds what had been a positive outlook for the sector in the first half of the year.

“It’s not a small incident,” said Sally Yim, senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors. “This?.?.?.?will likely lead to rate increases in property and marine cargo.”

Local and international insurers were likely to share some of the losses but domestic insurers would probably bear the brunt, said Ms Yim. “Large companies like those hit in the blast usually go with the bigger insurers.”

Fitch Ratings estimated the losses could reach $1.5bn, although other estimates quoted in Chinese media put the costs lower at Rmb2bn ($312.85m).

The number of deaths caused by the damage is expected to continue rising, with implications for personal injury and life insurers.

Motor insurers are predicted to take a hit, with a reported 80 per cent of the 10,000 new cars in nearby logistics ports said to have been damaged.

Another area of potential claims is the number of damaged buildings. The government said on Sunday that property occupied by 17,500 households and nearly 800 individual businesses had been affected.

“The biggest long-term impact will probably be on the [property and casualty] industry sector,” says Leon Qi, Head of Greater China Financials Research at Daiwa Capital Markets. “Profit margins are already squeezed.”

Householders have protested outside the Tianjin hotel where daily press conferences are being held, urging the government to buy their property.

“They said they will repair the house and we will be allowed to return in three months,” said homeowner Yan Hongmei. “I personally can’t accept this. If they don’t buy back the property, we’d rather abandon it. I will not go back, it’s too dangerous.”

Bao Jingling, chief engineer at Tianjin’s Environmental Protection Bureau, has warned residents returning to their homes to avoid powdered substances on belongings at the properties.

Additional reporting by Owen Guo in Tianjin

评级机构惠誉(Fitch)昨日警告，上周三震撼中国港口城市天津的爆炸的保险损失可能高达15亿美元，使其成为中国近年来代价最高的灾难事件。

一座化学品仓库发生的重创天津港一部分的爆炸，已导致114人遇难，另有57人失踪，数百人受伤。

针对爆炸起因的调查仍在展开。中国反腐败机构中纪委昨日表示，国家安全生产监督管理总局局长杨栋梁因涉嫌“严重违纪违法”，正在接受调查。中纪委没有说明杨栋梁的具体罪名，他曾在2001年至2012年期间担任天津市副市长。

保险商受到打击之际，适逢金融市场下挫，同时限制性的新监管框架给保险行业上半年的光明前景蒙上了阴影。

“这不是一起小事件，”穆迪投资者(Moody’s Investors)高级信贷官严溢敏(Sally Yim)表示。“这……很可能会导致财产险和海运货险的保费上调。”

严溢敏说，当地和国际保险公司很可能分担一些损失，但国内保险公司很可能要承受大部分损失。“在爆炸中受损的那些大公司一般会向较大的保险公司投保。”

惠誉估计，损失可能达到15亿美元，尽管中国媒体引述的其他估计较低，为20亿元人民币（合3.1285亿美元）。

预计爆炸致死人数还将继续上升，这对人身意外伤害险和寿险公司会有影响。

预计汽车保险商将受到沉重打击，据悉邻近爆炸现场的物流港停放的1万辆新车有80%受损。

另一个潜在索赔领域是大量受损建筑物。中国政府周日表示，1.75万户居民的住房和近800家企业的经营场所受到影响。

“最大的长期影响可能会落在（财产险和人身意外伤害险）提供商板块上，”大和资本市场(Daiwa Capital Markets)的大中华区金融研究部主管齐晓亮(Leon Qi)表示。“利润空间已经被挤压了。”

受损住房的业主们在官方每日举行新闻发布会的天津华美酒店外举行了抗议，要求政府买下他们的房产。

“他们说，他们会修好房子，我们在三个月后可以回家，”业主颜红梅（音）表示。“我个人无法接受这一点。如果他们不买下房产，我们宁愿放弃它。我不回去了，那太危险。”

天津市环保局总工程师包景岭警告回家的居民不要接触家中财物上的粉末状物质。

郭晨(Owen Guo)天津补充报道

译者/和风