【英语财经】日本经济第二季年化萎缩1.6% Abe blow as Japan’s economy shrinks

The Japanese economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, in a blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hopes of reviving the country’s growth.

The contraction, down from 4.5 per cent growth in the first quarter, came in slightly lower than market expectations of a 1.8 per cent fall but reflected broad-based weakness in demand across the economy, casting doubt on hopes for a recovery later in the year.

The growth figures suggest there is still little momentum to demand growth in Japan in spite of massive central bank stimulus, raising the prospect of additional monetary easing later this year.

“The slump in output last quarter should be followed by a tepid recovery in the second half of the year,” said Marcel Thieliant, Japan economist at Capital Economics in Singapore. “We remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will announce more easing in October.”

Private consumption, business investment and net exports all fell. The weakness of private consumption — which knocked 1.8 percentage points off annualised growth — is especially disappointing. Analysts had hoped modest wage rises would encourage households to loosen their purse strings.

Net trade cost 1.1 percentage points in annualised growth. Combined with the slight fall in business investment, it suggests the slowing Chinese economy is exerting a powerful drag on Japan.

Those areas of weakness were offset by public spending and a higher than expected inventory build-up. The latter contributed 0.3 percentage points to annualised growth but could be reversed if businesses reluctantly piled up unsold goods. “More than expected inventory accumulation looks to have stemmed from the remaining sluggish personal consumption,” said analysts at Credit Suisse.

2015年第二季度日本经济按年率计算萎缩1.6%，这对日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)重振经济增长的希望是一个打击。

今年第一季度日本经济增长4.5%，此次萎缩幅度略低于市场预期的1.8%，但反映出日本经济普遍需求疲软的问题，令人质疑今年晚些时候出现复苏的期待。

增长数据似乎显示，尽管央行出台了大规模刺激措施，但日本的需求增长仍然缺乏势头，引发了今年晚些时候出台额外货币宽松政策的前景。

“上一季度产出下滑之后，下半年应该会出现温和复苏，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)驻新加坡的日本经济学家马赛尔?蒂连特(Marcel Thieliant)称，“我们仍然确信日本央行(Bank of Japan)将于10月宣布更多宽松政策。”

私人消费、企业投资和净出口全部下降。私人消费的疲弱——令年化增长率降低1.8个百分点——尤其令人失望。分析师们原本希望，温和的工资上涨将鼓励家家户户增加消费。

净贸易数字使年化增长率降低1.1个百分点。加上企业投资的轻微下降，似乎表明中国经济放缓正对日本形成严重拖累。

这几个疲软领域被公共支出和高于预期的库存增加所抵消。库存增加为年化增长率贡献了0.3个百分点，但如果企业只是不情愿囤积未出售货物的话，这一趋势可能逆转。“库存积累高于预期，看来源于仍然萎靡不振的个人消费，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师表示。

译者/何黎