【英语财经】Lex专栏：港交所借力中国内地股市 Lex_Hong Kong Exchanges:great red hope

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The standard warning is particularly relevant to

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, which runs the city’s stock and futures markets and the London Metal Exchange.

That is because while HKEx is no longer the world’s biggest exchanges group — that mantle has passed back to

CME Group

of the US — it is still one of the most expensive. Its shares trade at 27 times next year’s forecast earnings.

Such a lofty rating might appear justified on the basis of its results for the first half, when several records were broken amid a boom in China’s stock markets.

Average daily turnover in the equity market almost doubled to $97bn (for comparison, the

London Stock Exchange

managed an increase of 13 per cent). Not bad for a market where trading still pauses for lunch.

Since then, volume growth has tailed off as sentiment towards China soured. Daily turnover — the main driver of revenue in the equity and clearing businesses — is averaging around HK$80bn, ahead of last year but some way off the rate in the first half . UBS expects around HK$92bn a day for the remainder of the year.

Turnover may be boosted if a link with the Shenzhen exchange receives regulatory approval. But volumes through the existing Stock Connect link with Shanghai have been fairly modest so far at about 5 per cent of the total — and that was during the boom.

Trading volumes fell slightly at the London Metal Exchange, acquired in 2012, but higher trading fees and lower costs meant that earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation doubled, to account for 12 per cent of the total.

The group is debt free, so could do more diversifying LME-style deals. But for now it remains a play on China’s growth and liberalising markets. That is a compelling long-term story. But there will be setbacks along the way. The shares, down a third from their peak in May, could have further to fall.

过去的表现不能代表未来收益。这种标准式的警告对于香港交易所(HKEx)来说尤其中肯，后者负责运营香港的股票和期货市场以及伦敦金属交易所(LME)。

这是因为，虽然港交所已不再是全球最大的交易所集团——这一桂冠已回到美国芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)手中——但它仍是全球最贵的交易所集团之一。港交所的预期市盈率达到了27倍。

基于该所上半年的业绩，如此高的估值看起来或许合理。在中国内地股市的一片繁荣中，多项业绩纪录被打破。

港交所股本证券产品日均成交额几乎翻了一倍，至970亿港元（相比之下，伦敦证交所(London Stock Exchange)仅实现了13%的增长）。对于一家午餐时间仍暂停交易的股市来说，这样的表现还算不错。

后来，随着投资者对中国内地股市的情绪转阴，港交所成交额增速下降。日均成交额——交易所收入的主要来源——现在约为800亿港元，比去年高，但低于上半年的水平。瑞银(UBS)预计，在今年余下的日子里，其日均成交额在920亿港元。

如果港交所与深圳证交所(Shenzhen stock exchange)之间的互联机制获得监管部门批准的话，前者的成交额或会受到提振。但是，通过已有沪港通实现的成交额迄今一直相当有限，约占全部成交额的5%，而且还是在牛市期间实现的。

2012年被港交所收购的伦敦金属交易所的成交量略有下降，但交易费提高和成本降低使其息税折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)翻倍，占集团EBITDA总额的12%。

港交所集团没有债务，因此，它可以在使伦敦金属交易所式的交易多元化方面做得更多。但现在，它仍然依赖中国的增长和市场开放。这是一个值得关注的长期故事。但未来肯定会遇到挫折。港交所股价从5月高点已下跌三分之一，未来可能还会进一步下跌。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。

译者/陈隆祥