【英语财经】短线视点：新兴市场退潮暴露“侵占资产收益” Short View - EM-bezzle uncovered by outgoing tide

The great economist JK Galbraith invented the “bezzle” to define the amount embezzled from companies but not yet noticed — an amount that rises amid lax controls in good times, and shrinks as falling prices reveal frauds.

Nefarious practices are again being discovered as the emerging market (EM) tide goes out, with allegations against leading politicians in Brazil, Malaysia and Turkey showing the bezzle is following its usual pattern.

Investor ardour for EM has waned. The trade-weighted dollar’s value against emerging markets last month passed its 2009 high, and is the strongest since March 2003.

The relative performance of EM equities has been awful, too, as they gave up all the gains against developed country shares made over the past decade, even including dividends. At 11 times estimated earnings, EM shares are also the cheapest compared to the developed world since 2005.

For investors, this might suggest the bottom is near. But caution is warranted. EMs are caught between the rock of the US dollar and the hard place that China has become.

After a golden decade of selling everything they could dig up to the Chinese, many EMs are having to adjust to “Sino Slowdown”. Combine that with the rising interest rates expected in the US, and EMs face poor fundamentals.

Prices are not as low as they might appear, either. While nominal exchange rates have tumbled, adjusted for inflation they are down far less. The trade-weighted dollar is up only a 10th against emerging markets in real terms from its 2013 low (although it is skewed by the steady

renminbi’s big weighting).

EM shares may look cheap versus developed markets, but that is as much because the US is expensive as because EMs are a bargain. Indeed, in the past 20 years EMs have been cheaper than today almost exactly half the time.

The chart shows the tight link between EM shares and commodity prices; both remain up about 175 per cent since the China boom began to be recognised in 2002, even after a big drop in the past four years.

If China rediscovers its appetite for commodity imports or the US dollar stalls, EM currencies and shares could rebound fast. But there is surely plenty of bezzle left to uncover if the downward trend continues.

伟大的经济学家J?K?加尔布雷思(JK Galbraith)发明了“侵占资产收益”(bezzle)一词，来定义从公司挪用但尚未被发现的资金数额——该数额在控制宽松的好年景增加，在价格下跌、骗局暴露时缩减。

在新兴市场的浪潮退去时，罪恶的行为再次被发现，针对巴西、马来西亚以及土耳其主要政界人士的指控表明，“侵占资产收益”行为遵循了一贯的模式。

投资者对新兴市场的热情已冷却。上个月，美元兑新兴市场货币的贸易加权汇率超过了其2009年高点，正处于自2003年3月以来最强劲的时候。

新兴市场股票的相对表现也很糟，它们过去10年相对发达国家股票的所有超额涨幅已荡然无存，即便包含股息。在预期市盈率为11倍的情况下，新兴市场股票相对发达世界股票也是自2005年以来最便宜的。

对投资者而言，这或许意味着即将触底。但是，谨慎是必要的。新兴市场正困在在坚挺的美元和已进入艰难境地的中国之间。

在经历了向中国人出售能挖到的一切矿藏的黄金十年之后，很多新兴市场不得不开始适应“中国经济放缓”。再加上美国上调利率的预期，新兴市场正面临糟糕的基本面。

价格似乎也还没有跌到位。尽管名义汇率暴跌，但经通胀调整后跌幅大大降低。美元兑新兴市场货币的实际贸易加权汇率只比2013年的低点上涨了十分之一（尽管该数值因稳定的人民币占据大权重而存在偏差）。

相比发达市场，新兴市场的股价看起来可能很便宜，但这既是因为美股昂贵，也是因为新兴市场的股票划算。的确，过去20年，新兴市场的股票在几乎正好一半的时间里一直比如今便宜。

下面这张图表表明了新兴市场股价和大宗商品价格之间的紧密联系；自2002年中国的繁荣开始得到认识以来，新兴市场股价和大宗商品价格均上涨了175%左右——即便有过去4年的大幅下跌。

如果中国对进口大宗商品的胃口恢复或者美元停止上涨，新兴市场货币汇率及股价可能会迅速反弹。但是，如果下滑趋势继续，肯定还会有很多“侵占资产收益”的情况被发现。

译者/马柯斯