【英语财经】高盛估计中国已花掉1440亿美元救市 Goldman estimates China's 'national team' stock rescue at $1 ...

China’s “national team” has probably spent about $144bn to bolster the country’s fragile stock market, Goldman Sachs has estimated, raising questions about how much firepower remains if stocks resume their recent sharp descent.

The government has not disclosed either the amount of rescue funds it has allocated to the coalition of state financial institutions — known as the “national team” — or how much of this total has already been invested.

But Goldman estimates that China Securities Finance Corp, the state-owned margin lending agency that is the main conduit for injecting rescue funds into the market, has about Rmb2tn ($322bn) at its disposal.

This total includes Rmb1.3tn in loans from large commercial banks, Rmb80bn in bonds issued in early July, and equity capital of Rmb100bn. The People’s Bank of China has also said it has provided liquidity to CSF through re-lending and other channels.

Media leaks about the size of the national team’s war chest are likely to have come from officials eager to communicate the government’s muscular response to the market turmoil. By contrast, the national team has good reasons for keeping quiet about how much it has already spent, since this could prompt investor worries that the government’s resources are nearly exhausted.

Indeed, shares tumbled by 10 per cent last week after local media cited anonymous sources saying that the national team was preparing its exit plan.

“The episode has underlined the difficulty the government faces in the task it has set itself of convincing investors that equity markets will deliver sustained gains,” said Chang Liu at Capital Economics.

“The market is driven more than ever by speculation about official intentions and any positive momentum will raise questions about whether support will be withdrawn.”

Goldman estimates the current amount spent at Rmb860-Rmb900bn. Media reports in early July indicated that CSF lent Rmb260bn to brokerages to support stock purchases, bought 400bn in stock directly, and invested another Rmb200bn in mutual funds.

“We believe the current market concern over the Chinese government’s potential exit from its market support is probably overdone,” Chengjie Liu and his colleagues wrote this week.

“With the government having just spent a considerable sum to stabilise the market, it is too early for them to reverse course, especially given the still-skittish manner in which the market is trading.”

The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,682 at midday on Thursday, just 9.2 per cent above the low point touched at the height of the selldown on July 9 and 28.9 per cent below the seven-year high of 5,178 reached on June 12.

Additional reporting by Ma Nan

高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，中国的“国家队”很可能已花掉约1440亿美元支撑该国脆弱的股市。这提出了一个问题：如果中国股市重演近期的暴跌，“国家队”还有多少弹药可用？

中国政府既未披露已分配给“国家队”（即国有金融机构）多少救市资金，也未透露这些资金已花掉了多少。

但据高盛估计，作为救市资金入市的主要管道，为券商融资融券业务提供配套服务的国有机构——中国证券金融股份有限公司（China Securities Finance Corp，简称：证金公司）可动用的资金约为2万亿元人民币（合3220亿美元）。

在这笔钱当中，有大型商业银行提供的1.3万亿元人民币贷款，有7月初发行的800亿元人民币债券，还有1000亿元人民币的股本。中国央行也表示，已通过再贷款和其他渠道向证金公司提供流动性。

媒体关于“国家队”弹药库规模的爆料，很可能出自一些想让外界知道政府对市场动荡作出强力回应的官员。相比之下，“国家队”有充分理由闭口不提它已花掉的资金数量，因为披露的话可能会让投资者担心政府的弹药几近耗尽。

实际上，中国股市上周累计下挫10%之前，曾有中国媒体援引匿名消息人士的话称，“国家队”正准备它的退出计划。

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的刘畅表示：“这件事突显出，政府在让投资者相信股市将持续上涨方面任务艰巨。

“市场由对官方意图的猜测驱动，这种倾向比以往任何时候都明显，市场只要一涨，投资者就会琢磨政府是否将停止托市。”

高盛估计，“国家队”目前花掉的资金在8600亿至9000亿元人民币之间。7月初的媒体报道显示，证金公司向券商发放了2600亿元人民币贷款、以支持购股，还直接购买了4000亿元人民币股票，并买入了2000亿元人民币共同基金。

高盛分析师刘陈杰和他的同事本周写道：“我们认为，目前市场对中国政府可能退出救市的担忧很可能过头了。

“政府刚刚花费了巨资稳定股市，现在就退出还为时过早，特别是考虑到市场交易仍处于易波动的状态。”

周四，上证综指收于3661.54点，距7月9日抛售最猛烈时的低点仅高出8.5%。

Ma Nan补充报道

译者/梁艳裳