【英语财经】金价告别避风港 Gold: Flight from safety

Gold investors had high hopes for China, believing not only that its emerging middle class would be big buyers of the precious metal, but that the emerging superpower was quietly stockpiling its own version of Fort Knox in the vaults of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing.

But an announcement last week shattered that illusion. China’s central bank had bought only 604 tonnes of gold over the past six years — a sizeable chunk but nothing like the predictions of at least three times that amount that had been believed by many in the market.

The revelation that the amount of gold China’s slowing economy holds had actually fallen relative to its foreign reserves triggered an aggressive sell-off when markets reopened on Monday. For the pension funds, university endowments and savers who have all bought the metal in the past decade, as prices marched towards $2,000 a troy ounce in 2011, it may have been the moment when gold finally lost its charm.

In a matter of minutes almost $1.7bn worth of the precious metal was dumped after electronic and physical exchanges opened in New York and Shanghai, driving gold to a five-year low approaching the psychologically important level of $1,000 a troy ounce after months of trading in a relatively narrow band. Short-sellers, traders said, were trying to force increasingly nervous investors to capitulate.

“They’re basically saying we don’t believe the buyers can come out and defend their position,” said Joe Wickwire, manager of the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio. “[They’re saying] we’re going to spook the market.”

That sinking feeling

The attack was well timed. Gold has been on the slide for several years. After hitting a record $1,920 in 2011 it has now slipped by 40 per cent. Half the gains it accrued between 1999, when the rally started at just $250 an ounce, have now been wiped out. This year should — by some accounts — have been good for gold. But despite the sort of bad news that would typically boost gold, including the Greek crisis, there has been little interest in what is supposed to be the ultimate haven investment.

“Gold has been the dog that did not bark,” says Matthew Turner, analyst at Macquarie in London. “It has always had a dual nature as a currency and a commodity. [But] at present it is not desired in either form.”

Investors have instead looked to the US dollar and Treasuries as safe places to park cash, driving the dollar to its highest level in 12 years.

After Monday’s sell-off, gold did not bounce back, eventually slipping at one point on Friday to a five-and-a-half-year low of $1,077. Traders are now questioning whether gold could fall back into triple digits for the first time this decade. An increase in US interest rates could sap demand for the metal as it increases the so-called “opportunity cost” of holding a non-yielding shiny rock. Goldman Sachs, one of the most influential banks in commodity trading, cautioned this week that it expected gold to fall to below $1,000 a troy ounce. Frederic Panizzutti of MKS PAMP, who is rated the most accurate forecaster last year by London’s bullion market association, estimates it will bottom at $950.

Others believe it will fall further. “As the Fed leads the way back towards normality, the gold price might return to levels of about $850 seen at the end of 2007 before the global financial crisis,” says Julian Jessop at Capital Economics.

For savers and investors who bought gold, the metal’s promise as a safe haven looks tarnished. But for the gold mining industry the decline looks even bleaker: it threatens its very existence.

“There’s enormous pressure on the industry at these gold prices to deal with this now,” says Mark Bristow, chief executive of FTSE 100 gold miner Randgold Resources. “The industry has not been profitable for a while.”

The start of gold’s 12-year rally can be traced to a sale. Gordon Brown, the then newly installed UK chancellor of the exchequer, decided in 1998 to sell more than half of the country’s gold reserves. The metal had averaged less than $370 a troy ounce since the start of the decade and Mr Brown saw an opportunity to raise much-needed cash to fund the newly elected centre-left government. He was following the lead of other central banks who had been sellers of gold.

The UK chancellor soon had reason to regret his move. At the start of the new decade a series of events helped trigger a multiyear rally. European central banks agreed to cap gold sales. The September 11 attacks set off a new era of heightened uncertainty in the world. And the enormous population of China underwent rapid industrialisation.

By the end of 2006, with the US running a large deficit to fund conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, gold prices had almost tripled to $750 a troy ounce. The following year it broke through $1,000 for the first time ever, rising 30 per cent that year as the opening stages of the financial crisis unfolded. Gains averaged 15 per cent over the next four years until in 2011, buoyed further by the eurozone crisis and Arab Spring, the metal hit a record $1,920.

Hundreds of thousands of small investors had bought into the metal through the rise of so-called Exchange Traded Funds, which let a new breed of traders buy and sell small amounts of the metal. John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions predicting the US housing crash, decided to denominate a large chunk of his assets in gold rather than dollars, making him one of the world’s largest owners of bullion. He argued that central banks’ decision to engage in quantitative easing, or “money printing”, would ultimately lead to the debasement of paper currencies and trigger Weimar-style inflation.

But the idea that bullion would keep on rising proved false. With the $2,000 level in sight, gold suddenly stalled. Then it fell by $400 in little over a week in April 2013, the kind of move that would normally play out over a year, after Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, said he would do whatever it took to defend the euro. Traders initially said profit-taking was to be expected, but the market has never fully recovered. For the past two years it has settled into a relatively narrow range from $1,150 to $1,400, before this week when it dropped towards $1,000 for the first time since 2009.

Finding the bottom

Predicting where the gold price might bottom is difficult, says George Cheveley, a portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management. This is because gold is not like metals such as copper and zinc, which have industrial uses.

“With other metals you can talk about production costs and fundamental demand. When it comes to gold it is a bit like a currency or a share — it is investor led. And that means it can overshoot,” says Mr Cheveley who runs the $220m Investec Global gold fund.

Gold bugs are, however, finding reasons to be positive. China, they believe, is not being truthful about how much gold it has bought because it wants to drive down the price and add to its reserves on the cheap. Some observers estimate its real reserves are closer to those of Germany at 3,400 tonnes and not the official number of 1,658 tonnes.

“The bears have bitten on gold like a horse with a bit,” says Peter Schiff, who runs Euro Pacific Capital, an investment fund that specialises in attracting money from those betting that the US dollar will collapse. “Once people perceive that the dollar is more flawed than the yen or the euro, or any of the other currencies then where else can you go but gold. Gold will shine again.”

The World Gold Council, the industry’s lobby group, rushed out a statement after the sell-off that claimed Chinese retail demand was still in “good health” and the growth trend intact.

But the evidence on the ground is less conclusive. The country’s stock market rally has tied up a lot of investors’ cash.

“Over the past year, our physical gold sales in branches have not been very good,” says an employee at one of China’s largest state-owned banks in Shanghai, who asked to be called Mr Chen. “Gold prices had a big fall, no aunties have come to buy,” he adds, referring to the middle-aged women who were big buyers when the price last posted a big fall in 2013.

But the gold bugs are not for turning: Texas-based former stockbroker Bill Holter believes it remains a buying opportunity.

“I can calculate on the back of a napkin that China is buying more gold,” says Mr Holter, adding that import data supports his view. He also believes that gold will have its moment again when the world’s current build up of debt pops.

“Mathematically it’s guaranteed to happen, it is just a question of when,” he says. “You cannot try to time gold. You just buy it and close your eyes and you know time is on your side.”

黄金投资者对中国抱有很高希望，不仅相信中国新兴的中产阶层将成为这种贵金属的大买家，而且相信这个新兴超级大国的央行(PBoC)正悄悄地在北京的金库积累黄金，就像美国的诺克斯堡(Fort Knox)金库一样。

但本月中旬（7月17日）公布的一个数据打碎了这一幻想。中国央行在过去6年里只买入了604吨黄金——这个数量相当大，但远远低于外界的估测，许多市场人士预期其买入量至少是这个数字的三倍。

经济正在放缓的中国所持黄金数量相对于其外汇储备的比率实际上是在下降。在7月20日市场重开时，这一消息引发了剧烈的抛售。过去10年，随着金价上涨——在2011年接近每盎司2000美元——养老基金、大学捐赠基金和储户都在买入黄金，对他们而言，现在或许是黄金最终失去魅力的时刻。

纽约和上海的电子及实体交易所开盘后，短短几分钟内抛售的黄金达到了17亿美元，使金价结束数月的窄幅波动，创下了5年新低，逼近每盎司1000美元的重要心理关口。交易员表示，做空者正在试图迫使越来越紧张不安的投资者举手投降。

“他们基本上在说，我们相信，不会有买家站出来捍卫他们的仓位，”富达精选黄金投资组合(Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio)的经理乔?威克怀尔(Joe Wickwire)说，“（他们说，）我们将让市场感到恐慌。”

那种下沉的感觉

攻击时机选得恰到好处。金价在过去几年里一直在下滑。自2011年达到创纪录的每盎司1920美元以来，金价跌去了40%。1999年，金价从仅仅250美元开始上涨。1999年至2011年之间积累的涨幅现在已折损了一半。有些说法认为，今年应是黄金的好年景。但是，虽然传出了通常将提振金价的坏消息（包括希腊危机），市场对这一本应是终极投资避风港的品种仍无甚兴趣。

中国央行称在过去6年里买入了604吨黄金

“黄金成了不会叫的狗，”麦格理(Macquarie)驻伦敦分析师马修?特纳(Matthew Turner)表示，“黄金历来兼具货币和大宗商品两种属性。（但）目前，黄金的哪一种属性都没受到追捧。”

相反，投资者用现金去买他们认为安全的美元和美国国债，把美元推至12年最高位。

周初的抛售过后，金价并未反弹，反而一度下滑至1077美元的五年半低点。如今交易员开始询问，金价是否可能在本十年内第一次跌回至3位数的水平？美国加息可能会打击黄金需求，因为这增加了持有这种无收益的“闪光岩石”的所谓“机会成本”。最近，在大宗商品交易领域最具影响力的投行之一高盛(Goldman Sachs)警告称，预计金价将跌破每盎司1000美元。MKS PAMP的弗雷德里克?帕尼祖蒂(Frederic Panizzutti)被伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association)评为去年预测金价最准的分析师，他估计金价将在950美元见底。

也有人认为，金价下跌幅度会更大。“随着美联储(Fed)率先走向利率正常化，金价或许会回到2007年底全球金融危机爆发之前在850美元上下的水平，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的朱利安?杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)表示。

对于买入了黄金的储户和投资者而言，这种金属作为避风港的前景看来有些暗淡。对黄金开采业而言，金价下滑看来就更令人沮丧了：它可能威胁到行业的生存。

“当前金价令黄金开采业经受巨大压力，”富时100指数(FTSE 100)成份股公司——兰德黄金资源公司(Randgold Resources)首席执行官马克?布里斯托(Mark Bristow)表示，“行业已有一段时间不盈利了。”

长达12年的金价上涨，其源头可以追溯到一次出售。1998年，当时新上任的英国财政大臣戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)决定出售英国一半以上的黄金储备。自1990年到那时，平均金价不到每盎司370美元，布朗从中看到一个机会，以筹集急需的资金来支持刚成立的中左翼政府。其他一些央行率先出售了黄金，布朗是在如法炮制。

这位英国财政大臣很快就有了为自己做法而遗憾的理由。新一个十年开始之际，一系列事件帮助触发了金价的多年上涨行情。欧洲各国央行同意设定黄金出售量上限。9.11恐怖袭击事件开启了一个世界不确定性增大的时代。中国的庞大人口经历了快速工业化。

到2006年底，由于美国以高额赤字支持对阿富汗和伊拉克的军事干预，金价上涨了接近两倍，至每盎司750美元。第二年，随着金融危机进入开局阶段，金价在史上首次突破1000美元，当年涨幅达30%。在2008年至2011年的4年内，金价平均年涨幅达15%，在欧元区危机和阿拉伯之春(Arab Spring)的进一步推动下，金价涨到了创纪录的1920美元。

随着所谓交易所交易基金(ETF)的兴起，为数众多的小投资者买入了黄金——ETF使一种新型交易者可以买卖少量黄金。通过预测美国房地产市场崩盘而赚入数十亿美元的对冲基金经理约翰?保尔森(John Paulson)，决定把他的一大部分资产配置在黄金而不是美元，使自己成为世界上黄金持有量最多的人之一。他认为，央行进行量化宽松(QE)或者说“印钞”的决定最终将令纸币贬值，并引发类似魏玛共和国时期的通胀。

自2011年达到创纪录的每盎司1920美元以来，金价已跌去了40%

但金价将一直上涨的观点已被证明是错误的。就在2000美元在望时，金价突然停止上涨。接着，2013年4月，在欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)表示将不惜一切代价捍卫欧元之后，金价只用一周多一点儿便下跌了400美元——正常情况下，这样的跌幅要用一年以上时间。交易员一开始表示，预计可能发生了获利了结，但市场始终也没有完全恢复。过去两年里，金价在1150美元至1400美元这个相对狭窄的区间内波动，到上周，金价则自2009年以来首次跌至1000美元附近。

寻找底部

预测金价何时可能见底是困难的，天达资产管理公司 (Investec Asset Management)的投资组合经理乔治?切维利(George Cheveley)这样表示。这是因为，黄金不同于铜和锌等具有工业用途的金属。

“若是其他金属，你可以讨论生产成本和基本需求。但说到黄金，它有点像货币或股票——它是由投资者主导的。这意味着它可能会超跌，”负责管理2.2亿美元的“天达环球”黄金基金的切维利表示。

然而，黄金投资者找到了乐观的理由。他们相信，中国没有如实公布黄金购买量，因为中国想要打压金价、以便宜价格增加黄金储备。有些观察人士估计，中国的实际黄金储备量接近于德国的3400吨，而并非官方公布的1658吨。

“看跌黄金者之前像上了嚼子的马一样毫无所得，”掌管着欧洲太平洋资本公司(Euro Pacific Capital)的彼得?希夫(Peter Schiff)表示，“一旦人们认识到，与日元、欧元或者其他任何一种货币相比，美元的缺陷更大，到那时除了黄金以外你还能投资什么？黄金将再度闪耀。”欧洲太平洋资本是一家专注于吸引看跌美元投资的基金。



黄金遭抛售之后，行业游说集团世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)赶紧发表声明称，中国的黄金零售需求仍处于“健康的状态”，需求增长趋势没有改变。

但实际证据不太有说服力。中国股市的上涨吸引了投资者的大量现金。

“过去一年里，我们各分行的实物黄金销售状况一直不太好，”中国某大型国有银行一家上海分行的一名员工表示。“金价跌得很厉害，再没有大妈过来买黄金，”他补充道。他说的大妈，是指在2013年的上一次金价大跌时大量买入的中年妇女。

但黄金投资者不会改变主意：德克萨斯州的前股票经纪商比尔?霍尔特(Bill Holter)认为，现在仍是购买黄金的好机会。

霍尔特说：“我能用餐巾纸的背面计算出，中国正在买入更多黄金。”他接着说，进口数据印证他的看法。他还认为，当世界目前的债务积累问题爆发之时，黄金将再次走红。

“从数学上来说，这是注定会发生的，只是个何时发生的问题，”他说，“你不好把握投资黄金的时机。你只管买入，然后闭上眼睛，时间将会证明你是对的，无需着急。”

译者/邢嵬