【英语财经】Lex专栏：中国股市潜力犹在 Lex_ China

This was not supposed to happen. Everything was supposed to be calmer by now. After a hairy week or two earlier this month, the Chinese government’s efforts to settle the country’s stock markets were intended to produce a more serene environment. But on Monday China’s indices had one of their biggest ever one-day falls. Yesterday they struggled to stay flat after opening sharply down again.

That is not for want of trying on the part of the Chinese authorities. They have deployed well-tested measures, as well as some made in China. Selling pressure, and supply, have been stemmed by bans on sales by large shareholders, cancellation of initial public offerings and suspension of shares from trading. Buying has been augmented by government funds. To ensure a healthier market, margin financing has been reined in. None of this has worked. Investors are clearly still twitchy despite China’s protestations that it will stand behind markets.

They may have good reason. Even after all the recent share price falls, Shanghai and Shenzhen have returned 71 and 86 per cent over 12 months, respectively, leaving ample room for profit-taking. The Shanghai Composite index trades at 19 times historical earnings, which is not cheap enough to attract bargain hunters.

And China’s economic slowdown is real. This week, the Caixin purchasing managers’ index hit a 15-month low — although, given the index’s bias towards traditional manufacturing industries, it may omit much of the modern economy. Still, m ultinational companies are feeling the impact: from the UK’s Burberry

to United Technologies

of the US, recent results have been dragged down by China.

Yet despite the near-term concerns, China’s appeal to corporate investors does not seem to have dimmed. This week, General Motors

said it would spearhead its strategy into emerging markets with Chinese partner SAIC; and Delta Air Lines

said it would buy 4 per cent of China Eastern Airlines

. The stock markets may be subject to the volatility that comes with youth but longer-term potential for growth remains intact.

这一幕本不该发生，按说现在市场应该已经较为平静。在经历了本月初令人胆战心惊的一两周过后，中国政府尽力安稳国内股市，以营造更平静的市场环境。但周一股指创下了历来单日最大跌幅之一。昨日股市又大幅低开，收盘微跌。

中国政府并非没有付出努力。他们采取了一系列久经考验的措施，还有一些中国独创的举措。禁止大股东减持、暂停IPO以及股票停牌抑制了卖压，减少了股票供给。政府基金还买入股票。为了营造一个更健康的市场，融资融券受到限制。这一切措施都没有奏效。投资者显然仍感焦躁，尽管中国政府声明会力撑股市。

投资者们的理由可能很充分。即使在最近大跌后，沪深两市过去一年仍分别上涨了71%和86%，给获利回吐留下了充足空间。上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index)历史市盈率为19倍，还不够低到吸引逢低买入的投资者。

而且中国经济增长确实在放缓。本周，财新网(Caixin)采购经理人指数PMI创下15个月新低——不过鉴于该指数偏向传统制造业，可能在一定程度上遗漏了现代经济的部分。此外，跨国公司正受到中国经济放缓的影响：从英国的博柏利(Burberry)到美国的联合技术(United Technologies)，许多公司近期业绩受到了拖累。

然而尽管存在短期担忧，中国对企业投资者的魅力似乎并未减少。本周，通用汽车(General Motors)表示将与中国合作伙伴上汽集团(SAIC)一起，实施在新兴市场发展的战略；达美航空(Delta Air Lines)表示将收购中国东航(China Eastern Airlines)4%的股份。中国股市可能仍会因不成熟而容易波动，但其较长期的增长潜力依然保持不变。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/彩云