【英语财经】新兴市场货币跌至15年低点 Currencies mauled after China rout

Emerging market currencies have slumped to 15-year lows as China’s equity rout and free-falling commodity prices reverberate throughout the -global economy.

Raw-material exporters Brazil, Russia and Colombia have suffered some of the heaviest sell-offs as the fall in the price of commodities such as oil, copper and iron ore continued unabated this week, with Brent crude falling to its lowest level since February. The turbulence is expected to increase once the US Federal Reserve chooses to finally lift interest rates from near-zero levels, a move that will probably have a chilling effect on developing markets.

James Lord, emerging market strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the Fed was an ever-present risk. “Any change in expectations about the first US rate hike driven by strong US economic data could add to the existing volatility.”

Currency markets act as a bellwether for investor sentiment, so the slump raises the likelihood of a deeper sell-off in equity and debt markets. So far this year the MSCI Emerging Markets stock index is down 10.9 per cent while government and corporate borrowing costs in emerging economies including Brazil, Turkey and Russia have increased.

“The next risk is that continued volatility in Chinese financial markets will trigger a further reaction in global capital markets, especially if other risks also materialise,” said Alberto Gallo at RBS.

Beijing’s failure to stabilise its domestic stock market in recent days following an unprecedented sell-off has alarmed global investors. It has undermined faith in the world’s second-largest economy, driving down commodity prices and leaving developing markets vulnerable to the aftershocks.

新兴市场货币跌至15年来低点。中国股市暴跌，以及大宗商品价格自由落体式的下跌正在对全球经济发起冲击波-。

原材料出口国巴西、俄罗斯及哥伦比亚遭遇了最严重的抛售，石油、铜和铁矿石等大宗商品价格的下跌势头本周没有减弱，其中布兰特原油价格跌至2月以来的最低水平。而一旦美联储(Federal Reserve)最终选择将利率从接近于零的水平提升（此举很可能对发展中市场产生激冷效应），动荡预计还将加剧。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)新兴市场策略师詹姆斯?洛德(James Lord)称，美联储是一种始终存在的风险。“对美国受强劲经济数据驱动的首次加息的预期的任何变化，都可能加剧现有的波动。”

汇市是投资者情绪的风向标，因此，新兴市场货币大幅下跌增加了股市和债市进一步暴跌的可能性。MSCI明晟新兴市场股指今年迄今已经下跌10.9%，而新兴经济体（包括巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯）政府和企业的借款成本也已增加。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的阿尔贝托?加洛(Alberto Gallo)说：“下一个风险是，中国金融市场的持续动荡将引发全球资本市场的进一步反应，尤其是在其他风险也突然露头的情况下。”

中国股市出现暴跌后，中国政府近日未能成功稳定国内股市，这向全球投资者敲响了警钟。这削弱了人们对世界第二大经济体的信心，压低大宗商品价格，并使得发展中市场更容易受余波冲击。

译者/陈隆祥