【英语财经】Lex专栏：中国企业应学会管理汇率风险 Lex_Renminbi devaluation: learn to hedge

We had been warned. China has long been committed to a gradual internationalisation of its currency and a greater role for market forces in the economy. Yet the effects of yesterday’s 2 per cent devaluation in the renminbi have been widespread. Companies and investors should get used to this volatility. There will be more of it.

The People’s Bank of China said that the change to its daily fix was “a one-off adjustment” reflecting a desire to decouple the renminbi from a strengthening US dollar. But it also said that its daily rate fix would in future better reflect market forces. Logically, more depreciation should follow; economic growth is slowing, capital is fleeing and the currency was already overvalued on an inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted basis.

Stock markets have already sorted the likely winners from losers; broadly, devaluation is deemed good for Chinese exporters. It is deemed bad for US, European and Japanese companies selling into China — partly because it may crimp sales and profits in their home currencies — but more because of what resorting to devaluation says about the state of the Chinese economy. No wonder shares in the likes of Burberry

and

BMW

fell.

Another constituency that has reason to be concerned is Chinese companies with large dollar debts. According to Dealogic, Chinese corporates raised $68bn via US dollar bonds last year — about 14 per cent of their issuance. Significant borrowers include

Alibaba,

Sinopec

and

Cnooc.

They have large dollar revenues, too, so do not be too concerned. Chinese airlines look most exposed, due to aircraft lease commitments. Take

China Southern: over 90 per cent of liabilities are dollar-denominated. It thinks that each 1 per cent drop in the renminbi-dollar rate knocks Rmb767m off its profits — significant in the context of Rmb4.7bn of operating profit in 2014. Its Hong Kong-traded shares fell 18 per cent.

China Southern is ultimately state-controlled and so most unlikely to fail. But, if nothing else, China’s devaluation is a warning that the “carry trade” of borrowing offshore on the assumption that the PBoC will manage the exchange-rate volatility (and any renminbi appreciation) looks increasingly unwise. As the currency regime liberalises, Chinese companies will have to learn how to manage forex risks just like everyone else.

我们已经得到过警告了。中国长期以来一直承诺要让人民币逐步国际化以及让市场在经济中发挥更大作用。不过，昨天人民币贬值2%仍产生了广泛的影响。企业和投资者应该习惯于这种波动。未来还会有更多波动。

中国央行称，这次人民币汇率中间价调整是“一次性校正”，反映的是让人民币与不断走强的美元脱钩的愿望。但该行也称，未来的每日中间价将更好地反映市场因素。从逻辑上讲，人民币接下来应该还会贬值；经济增长在放缓，资本在外流，经通胀调整的人民币贸易加权汇率之前已被高估。

至于哪些企业可能是赢家，哪些可能是输家，股市已给出了自己的答案；整体而言，贬值被认为有利于中国出口企业。对于向中国出口的美国、欧洲以及日本企业，人民币贬值被认为是个坏消息；部分原因是这可能会打击这些企业的销量、并拉低以它们本国货币计算的利润，但更大的原因是中国诉诸贬值手段传递出的关于中国经济形势的讯息。难怪博柏利(Burberry)和宝马(BMW)之类的公司股价下跌了。

另一批有理由感到担忧的是背负大量美元债务的中国企业。Dealogic数据显示，去年中国企业发行了680亿美元的美元债券——占其债券发行量的14%左右。较为显眼的借款方包括阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、中国石化(Sinopec)和中海油(Cnooc)。

它们也拥有大量美元收入，因此不需要太担心。由于背负飞机租赁契约，中国的航空公司似乎敞口最大。以中国南方航空公司(China Southern)为例：其超过90%的负债是以美元计价的。南航H股昨日下跌18%。

南航毕竟是国有企业，因此破产的可能性微乎其微。但是，人民币贬值至少是个警示，它提醒人们：以中国央行将控制住汇率波动（并促成人民币升值）为前提假定来从事涉及离岸借贷的“套利交易”，看起来已越来越不明智。随着汇率制度自由化，中国企业将不得不像其他人一样，学会如何管理汇率风险。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/马柯斯